Phuket’s future looks bleak after tourism policy U-Turn

 Phuket's future looks bleak after tourism policy U-Turn

November 11, 2020

An empty beach in Phuket, Thailand.

Thailand's leading resort island Phuket is facing up to the reality that its tourism high season will not see a marked reopening to overseas travellers, following the dismantling of the Phuket Model and refocus by the government on using Bangkok as a single international gateway.

The key tourism indicator for the island is airlift and Phuket International Airport is the gateway for 70-80 per cent of visitors to the destination.

According to Airports of Thailand data, 121,530 passengers arrived in the month of September. This equates to just over 4,000 arrivals a day, including local residents and business people.

Comparing year-on-year data, 2019's daily arrivals which included international travellers was five times higher.

C9 Hotelworks managing director Bill Barnett said that "there is a dramatic change in the market mix where the current domestic-led average length of stay for hotels is approximately 1.8 days, while for foreign travellers, it's more than double this amount.

What this means for hotels is severely reduced overall demand across the island's entire accommodation sector".

Looking forward to the high season when the numbers spike upwards in the four months of December through March, the high season months last year equated to more than one-third of annual demand.

Total domestic and international arrivals at the airport totalled just over 9 million in 2019.

Adding in high season shoulder months into the equation, the stark economic impact of Phuket's economic seasonality is reflected in the fact that well over half of the island's tourism arrivals are packed into a six-month period.

Now, nearly two months into that timeframe, what is apparent is it's virtually impossible to save the high season and hotel owners in 2021 will be forced to contend with historically the lowest trading months of the year by May.

Given these grim prospects, C9 Hotelworks is predicting large-scale job losses and business closures, given there is no light at the end of the pandemic-induced tunnel.

"Taking a 360-degree view on the restricted domestic-only demand, you have to take into account that Phuket's current registered accommodation supply has continued to surge to its present size of 90,267 rooms in 1,773 hotels/tourism establishments," added Barnett.

"Of this supply, upper midscale, upscale, and luxury properties of international standards are approximately 25 per cent of the total rooms."

Data from STR has Phuket occupancy averaging 10 per cent, with upward spikes on weekends at international standard hotels.

Looking into the number though, the reality is domestic travellers are cashing in on cheap deals at upscale and luxury hotels.

Given limited visitor arrivals, the far larger mid and economy tiers where most of the hotel inventory sits, are experiencing even lower occupancy.

This domino effect is expected to prevail unabated throughout a sustained downturn and effectively crushes the smaller properties and local tourism businesses.

As Thailand's government policy has maintained Bangkok as the sole entry point for a limited number of travellers from overseas under the Alternative State Quarantine (ASQ) programme, a number of hotels in all tiers are operating under the scheme.

Hotel performance data for Bangkok from STR is reflecting occupancy just above 25 per cent for international standard hotels, though again, in the broader marketplace, demand is at considerably lower levels.

In Phuket, many hotels pinned high-season hope on the now-aborted Phuket Model to allow Special Tourist Visas aimed at long-staying visitors, given the island's legacy winter 'snowbird' market from Northern Europe and Russia.

Putting the ASQ programme at the head of the reopening tourism initiative, 17 Phuket hotels have been approved and 21 applications are under process.

Properties who have undertaken both the expense and time in qualifying for the status have been shut out, given the government's about-face policy of centralising all overseas arrivals into Bangkok.

What is unclear is the logic in policy flip flop on negating the island's essential tourism lifeline.

Using smaller contained resort-focused islands would appear a logical risk mitigation strategy that was echoed in all of the hype over the Phuket Model but after the dust has settled, it ultimately failed to launch.

The time has come that Thailand must gain confidence from international benchmarks, such as the tourism-dependent Maldives.

According to data from the nation's Ministry of Tourism, in October, the destination recorded 21,514 tourist arrivals.

This trend is again on the rise in November and looking back, the country has safely managed the reopening of its borders since mid-July.

Meanwhile, Singapore is set to start its air travel bubble with Hong Kong from November 22.

Putting Phuket's economy debacle into perspective, Barnett said "losing this high-season will further intensify the catastrophic impact on the island's business owners and the livelihoods of the vast majority of residents.

Given the sheer size of the hotel inventory, it cannot survive only on domestic visitors, cheaper airfares, or by adding more public holidays.

For Phuket, this high season, faced with the prevailing arithmetic, the island can only wait and wonder what comes next." – ttgasia.com

Tripadvisor SCREWS Thai hotel that had American guest jailed

Som "resenörd" tycker jag detta är intressant....

 Tripadvisor SCREWS Thai hotel that had American guest jailed

November 11, 2020

The resort hotel in Thailand got its public apology. The unhappy American guest who spent two nights in jail for criticizing the hotel online had his criminal charges dropped.

But it was Tripadvisor, the giant online travel review platform, that has the last word.

Wesley Barnes, the American traveler who was arrested after being charged with criminal defamation for posting critical reviews of the Sea View resort on the island of Koh Chang, quietly left Thailand this week.

With Mr. Barnes safely out of the country, Tripadvisor took punitive action on Wednesday against the resort, posting a one-of-a-kind notice on the Sea View's page warning travelers that the hotel was behind the jailing of a guest for his harsh reviews.

"This hotel or individuals associated with this hotel filed criminal charges against a Tripadvisor user in relation to the traveler writing and posting online reviews," the warning reads.

"The reviewer spent time in jail as a result."

The dispute between the resort and its guest began over a $15 corkage fee, but turned into a clash between American principles of free speech and Thailand's far-reaching laws that limit expression and are used to stifle criticism of businesses, the government and the monarchy.

Tripadvisor's business model is based on the idea that everyone has "the right to write," said Bradford Young, vice president and associate legal counsel. "This is the first case we are aware of where a Tripadvisor member spent time in jail as a result of a review they posted to our website."

While Thailand is seen as one of the world's most tourist-friendly places, its anti-speech arsenal includes laws against criminal defamation, improper online content, sedition, contempt of court and insulting the monarchy.

In the case of Mr. Barnes, he began writing wide-ranging, critical reviews of the hotel in June after the corkage fee dispute. (continued below)

The Sea View, located in the Gulf of Thailand, an hour's flight from Bangkok, said it tried unsuccessfully to persuade him to delete his posts and had no choice but to file a police complaint.

Mr. Barnes was arrested in September and spent two nights in jail as he tried to make bail.

He faced two years in prison.

Tripadvisor began paying his legal fees and helped bring the parties together to negotiate.

Eventually, the Sea View agreed to drop its complaint if Mr. Barnes made a "sincere apology" for his reviews, which they said included "xenophobic comments against hotel staff."

Mr. Barnes accepted the offer, and in a statement that resembled a forced confession, he apologized and thanked the hotel for forgiving him.

The fine print of the settlement also required Mr. Barnes to obtain an agreement from Tripadvisor that it would not post a "red badge" warning notice on its page.

Tripadvisor posts various warnings to alert travelers to safety issues, and such notices can result in a significant drop in business. Agreeing to the hotel's demand meant going against the company's own practice of informing travelers.

"That was problematic for us," Mr. Young said. "The settlement agreement basically required Mr. Barnes to convince Tripadvisor to stop acting like Tripadvisor."

The company has been criticized in the past for not doing enough to warn travelers of specific dangers, especially cases of rape.

In the end, Tripadvisor gave Mr. Barnes a letter that he hand delivered to the hotel, promising the company would not post a "red badge" on the hotel's page.

With that, the charges were dismissed last week and the police returned his passport and bail money.

In the meantime, Tripadvisor began drafting the new warning that it posted on Wednesday, as soon as Mr. Barnes had left Thailand.

The warning comes with a penalty: a substantial drop in the hotel's ranking on the website.

Neither the Sea View nor Mr. Barnes responded to requests for comment.

A Massachusetts-based company, Tripadvisor has operated for 20 years and has posted 878 million reviews from countries around the world. It usually has 50 to 100 lawsuits pending in various countries, most commonly about free speech, Mr. Young said.

"Every traveler," he said, "has a fundamental right to share their experiences and opinions with other travelers."

Korean soldier tests positive on return from Thailand

National

Nov 11. 2020

By The Nation

Health authorities say a South Korean soldier who spent almost a month in Thailand tested positive for Covid-19 on his return to his homeland on Sunday (November 8).

The soldier was among 202 attendees of a planning session for next year's Cobra Gold military exercise, held in Rayong on November 3-5, said Walairat Chaifu, chief of the Epidemiology Division at the Department of Disease Control (DDC).

Participants comprised 177 Thai soldiers and 25 foreign troops, who were drawn from the United States (12), South Korea (5), Indonesia and Australia (2 each), Singapore, Japan, and India (one each). They stayed at a hotel in Ban Chang District, which hosted their meetings and a buffet meal.

The South Korean soldier tested positive on Sunday after taking a flight from Suvarnabhumi Airport to Incheon Airport.

He arrived in Thailand on October 17 and spent two weeks at an alternative state quarantine (ASQ) hotel in Bangkok's Sukhumvit area. He twice tested negative during quarantine.

On November 1, he was picked up by an embassy car and moved to another hotel on Sukhumvit.

On November 2, a van from the embassy picked him up and ferried him to the meeting in Rayong's Ban Chang.

On November 6, the soldier travelled back in the embassy van to a Sukhumvit hotel – health officials are checking whether this was the same hotel he stayed in previously.

On November 8, the soldier travelled to Suvarnabhumi Airport for the flight back home.

Walairat said the other South Korean soldiers on the same trip had tested negative.

However, Thai soldiers who attended the meeting have been quarantined as a precaution.

Thai health authorities investigating the source of the infection have contacted their counterparts in South Korea to find out whether the soldier caught the virus in Thailand or before he left his own country. 

OBS OBS OBS OBS

Thailands Ambassad i Stockholm:

Special Tourist Visa (STV)

***As of 1 November 2020, Sweden is considered a high-risk country and Swedish passport holder can´t apply for STV visa***

Applicants are requested to submit the following documents:

1. Original passport plus 2 copies of signature and photograph page, passport with validity of more than 12 month.
2. Visa Application form (2 sets)
3. Health and Accident Insurance that covers the whole period of stay in Thailand of the applicant(Purchase from a Thai Insurance Company ONLY), with coverage for Outpatient Treatment of no less than 40,000 baht and Inpatient Treatment of no less than 400,000 baht. https://longstay.tgia.org/
4. Self-declaration for the applicant and family members must sign to confirm that they do not have the following diseases: Leprosy, Tuberculosis, Elephantiasis, drug addiction, the third phase of Syphilis. Non-criminal record for Thailand. Click to download
5. Confirmed booking of 14-day quarantine in the Alternative State Quarantine (ASQ). The list of ASQ hotels available is posted on www.hsscovid.com (For COE)

• In case the applicant owns a condominium in Thailand, the applicant has to show the document of the ownership or the ownership of the applicant's direct family member. The evidence of the ownership is required that the payment is already paid at least 2 installments OR
• In case the applicant does not own a condominium in Thailand, the applicant has to provide a copy of the Bank Statement showing the current balance in the past 6 months not less than 155,000 SEK (500,000 baht). The applicant is also required to submit the confirmation of payment of hotel rooms or rented accommodation during the whole period of stay in Thailand.

When apply please bring the above documents to the Embassy and addition documents below for COE

1. A health insurance policy covering all expenditures of medical treatments, including COVID-19 worth at least 100,000 USD. (For COE)
2. Declaration Form (Link to Declaration form for COE)
3. Flight Ticket for Thailand (For COE)
4. Spouse and children of the applicant (Children must not be over 20 years old) are required documents confirming relations with the applicant and also documents in 1-5
5. To apply for an STV visa at the Royal Thai Embassy Stockholm, for Non-Swedish/Latvian citizens, the applicant must have a permanent residence in Sweden/Latvia. (Showing personbevis from Skatteverket or a proof of residence.

VISA FEE

• 700 SEK for single entry
• Visa fee paid in CASH ONLY when submitting the application.
• Visa fee may be changed without prior notice

Note

• The Embassy does not provide a copy or printing service.
• The Embassy will REJECT your visa application if your document above is not completed.
• Do not apply for a visa earlier than 3 months before your arrival date to Thailand.
• The Embassy will not return the fee paid for visa application in case the applicants apply for the visa too early than 3 months so that the applicants MUST check the period of stay and arrival date to Thailand by yourself carefully.
• PROCESSING TIME (with completed documents)
  In-person or by a representative: 7 business days Collection date for the visa is specified on a payment receipt. Always bring the receipt when collecting a visa.
• Consular officers reserve the right to request additional documents, or an interview with the applicant, as deemed necessary, without prior notice.
• The Royal Thai Embassy reserves the right to refuse a visa to an applicant with insufficient documents or if the reasons are given are not fully supported. The visa fee is non-refundable. 





Single Entry Tourist Visa to Thailand now requires foreigners to show funds of 500k THB

Single Entry Tourist Visa to Thailand now requires foreigners to show funds of 500k THB

 

File photo for reference only

 

Foreigners who wish to apply for a Single Entry Tourist Visa (SETV) to Thailand are now required to provide 6 months worth of bank statements showing a bank balance of at least 500,000 THB.

 

The jaw dropping new financial requirement has been confirmed on the websites of several Thai embassies around the world, as well via emails to Thaivisa readers. 

 

The SETV allows foreigners to stay in Thailand for up to 60 days from the date of arrival and is valid for 90 days from date of issue. 

 

Previously, applicants for the SETV had to show proof they had a balance of at least 20,000 THB or 40,000 THB for families and sometimes, depending on the Thai Embassy or Consulate, this wasn't asked for. 

 

But now, applicants need to show a bank balance of 500,000 THB or equivalent.

 

If you are applying from the UK, the Thai Embassy in London now requires a balance of "£12,800 maintained throughout the past 6 months", while the Thai Embassy in Washington requires "$17,000 or 500,000 baht each month for the last six month".

 

And that's not all. 

 

Applicants also need to meet all the other requirements necessary for any non-Thai to return to Thailand currently such as, Certificate of Entry, declaration form, quarantine booking, Fit to Fly Certificate, COVID-19 negative test result and an insurance policy which provides a minimum of 100,000 USD coverage, including for COVID-19. 

 

The new requirements for SETV echo the equally jaw dropping requirements for foreign property owners who wish to return to Thailand currently. 

 

However, what isn't clear is if the new financial requirements are temporary while Thailand continues to successfully battle the COVID-19 pandemic or if it will be permanent.

 

The SETV has been a popular way for many different types of tourists to enjoy an extended stay in Thailand. 

 

However, it is particularly popular with young backpackers who use the 60 days to travel around Thailand before travelling elsewhere. 

 

It remains to be seen how many young backpackers would be able to meet the new 500,000 THB financial requirements. 

 

The new requirements as listed on the websites of the Thai Embassies in Helsinki, London and Washington can be found below:

 

Helsinki:

 

https://helsinki.thaiembassy.org/en/publicservice/tourist-visa-started-9-10-2020?page=5f49f4a199a85e260f4278de&menu=5d80876d15e39c3354007bb1

 

Washington:

 

https://thaiembdc.org/2020/11/05/trsingle_entry/

 

London:

 

https://london.thaiembassy.org/en/publicservice/119247-requirements-for-certificate-of-entry-during-travel-restriction?page=5d6636cd15e39c3bd00072dd&menu=5f4b6eb3f6ae4b236972c562

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-11-11 

Single Entry Tourist Visa to Thailand requirements pop up on some embassy websites but have strict rules and measures - Pattaya News

Single Entry Tourist Visa to Thailand requirements pop up on some embassy websites but have strict rules and measures

Wednesday, 11 November 2020, 13:38

Bangkok, Thailand-

First stated on private travel groups devoted to the Special Tourist Visa earlier last week, a 60 day Single Entry Tourist Visa requirement to Thailand (with 30 day extension available) and applications have popped up on several embassy websites around the world over the last week.

It's important to note that there has been NO OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT from the Thai Tourism Authority, The Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration, The Royal Gazette, The Ministry of Public Health or any other agency but staff at embassies in Washington D.C. and London who spoke to The Pattaya News have confirmed that the visa does, indeed, seem real and applies to countries other than low risk countries. However, as there has been no official announcements this is subject to change at any moment but as of press time is on several embassy websites such as below:

https://london.thaiembassy.org/en/publicservice/119247-requirements-for-certificate-of-entry-during-travel-restriction?page=5d6636cd15e39c3bd00072dd&menu=5f4b6eb3f6ae4b236972c562

Visa and Certificate of Entry procedures for Non-Thai nationals wishing to enter Thailand for Tourism purposes

This is NOT the special tourist visa, which is only for low risk countries and so far has mostly been used for Chinese "tourists".  More information on that visa can be found below:

Thailand announces only residents from low risk countries for the Covid-19 virus can apply for the new special tourist visa but will not give a list

However, for those rejoicing for a way into the country it is important to note the requirements, which not only have every single thing the Special Tourist Visa does but also has even more requirements. From the Washington D.C. Embassy website, here is a list of what is required below, with the 500,000 Thai Baht in a bank account for at least six months one requirement drawing a lot of attention. Additionally, it appears that at this point the visa cannot be changed to a different visa once in the country to allow one to stay past 60/90 days.

Visa and Certificate of Entry procedures for Non-Thai nationals wishing to enter Thailand for Tourism purposes

The following qualifications are for applicants who wish to apply for a Tourist visa TR (Single Entry only)
– Non-Thai nationals wishing to enter Thailand for Tourism purposes
– Non-Thai nationals with banking account balance no less than $17,000 or 500,000 baht each month for the last six month

1. At least 15 working days before the intended date of travel, the applicant must fill in the information and upload all required documents online here

2. The Royal Thai Embassy / Consulates-General will review the application. If the applicant requires a visa, the visa officer will inform the applicant to submit the following documents through mail to the Royal Thai Embassy (ATTN: Visa Section) or Royal Thai Consulate-General in Los Angeles, Chicago, or New York:

2.1 Passport

2.2 Two passport-size photographs (2″x 2″)

2.3 Visa application form (Download) (if the applicant doesn't have a valid Thai visa)

2.4 Declaration form (Download)

2.5 Medical insurance guaranteeing that the insurance company will cover a minimum of 100,000 USD (or equivalent in other currencies) of medical costs incurred by the applicant in Thailand, including medical costs in the event that the applicant contracts COVID-19 (The insurance must cover the whole duration of stay in Thailand)

2.6 A confirmation of booking of Alternative State Quarantine (Please check the list of the alternative state quarantine hotels at www.hsscovid.com or www.thaiembdc.org/asq)

2.7 Self-addressed return envelope and visa fee (Money order – $40 for single entry only)  if the applicant doesn't have a valid visa

2.8 A copy of the bank statement for the last 6 months (the balance of each month must have no less than $17,000 or 500,000 baht)

3. At the departure airport, the approved applicant is required to present

3.1 A "Certificate of Entry" issued by The Royal Thai Embassy or the Royal Thai Consulates-General;

3.2 A "Health Certificate", Fit to Fly, issued no more than 72 hours before departure.

3.3 Medical insurance or letter from employer guaranteeing that the insurance company or employer will cover a minimum of 100,000 US dollars (or equivalent in other currencies) of medical costs incurred by the applicant in Thailand, including medical costs in the event that applicant contracts COVID-19 (The insurance must cover the whole duration of stay in Thailand); and

3.4 A Medical certificate with a laboratory result indicating that COVID -19 is not detected, issued no more than 72 hours before departure

4. Upon entry to Thailand,

Travelers arriving in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic must present the following documents to be granted entry:

4.1 COE and Declaration Form

4.2 Medical certificate with a laboratory result indicating that COVID -19 is not detected, using RT-PCR test, issued no more than 72 hours before departure

4.3 Fit-to-fly/Fit-to-travel Health Certificate issued no more than 72 hours before departure

4.4 Medical insurance or letter from employer guaranteeing that the insurance company or employer will cover a minimum of 100,000 US dollars (or equivalent in other currencies) of medical costs incurred by the applicant in Thailand, including medical costs in the event that applicant contracts COVID-19 (The insurance must cover the whole duration of stay in Thailand)

5.  If granted entry, traveler must go through 14 days of Alternative State Quarantine
*** The applicant must arrange their own 14-day Alternative State Quarantine (ASQ) at their own expenses. More information, including list of permitted hotels (in Thai) can be found here at http://hsscovid.com/ or Royal Thai Embassy's website .***

List above courtesy US Embassy 

Pfizer breakthrough boosts Thai project - Bangkok Post

Pfizer breakthrough boosts Thai project

Thailand stands to gain from an information-sharing agreement with Pfizer/BioNTech after preliminary results showing its latest Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective made headlines around the world on Monday.

Dr Nakhon Premsri, director of the National Vaccine Institute (NVI), told media yesterday that the technology used is similar to that being used in the current collaboration between the NVI and Chulalongkorn University.

"The leap in progress made by Pfizer's Covid-19 project is great news, made even better for us because we are developing our own vaccine based on the same technology. The information sharing deal should help speed up our own development process," he said.

Although Thailand has struck deals with both the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc that will allow it to produce and supply any successful vaccines their projects may yield, it only managed to agree an information sharing pact with Pfizer.

In the Asia-Pacific region, only three countries have supply deals already in place with Pfizer. Japan has secured 120 million doses and Australia 10 million, while China's Fosun has also agreed 10 million doses for Hong Kong and Macau, according to Reuters.

Dr Nakhon, nevertheless expects researchers in Thailand will benefit as the NVI/Chulalongkorn "mRNA-based vaccine" is similar to Pfizer/BioNTech's.

This method works by training the body to recognise and kill proteins produced by pathogens.

Dr Nakhon said Thai researchers are looking forward to finding out more about the proteins and the processes implemented by Pfizer/BioNTech to recognise them.

The world cheered on Monday when Pfizer Inc announced its vaccine, jointly developed with BioNTech SE, was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results.

Yet health experts cautioned that, should it be approved, the vaccine will pose some challenges, especially for hot countries, as the genetic material it is made from needs to be stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius or below.

According to Dr Yong Poovorawan, head of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn's Faculty of Medicine, the clinical trial of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is inconclusive and more work needs to be done,

The World Health Organization estimates that about 70% of people must be inoculated to end the pandemic, with Asia alone home to more than 4.6 billion -- or three-fifths of the global population. 

The pressure cooker that is Thailand - Bangkok Post

The pressure cooker that is Thailand

A homeless man loiters in front of Hua Lamphong railway station where he takes shelter as dusk falls. Pattarapong Chatpattarasill

Thailand finds itself in a pressure cooker these days, dealing with pre-Covid-19 economic weaknesses, the lack of longer-term responses to the economic and social crises from the pandemic, and uncertainty about how much longer people can hold on before falling into poverty, losing jobs or closing small businesses.

This is the picture of Thai society that emerged from a recent World Bank discussion on vulnerable populations in this middle-income country, one whose success in managing Covid-19 is well-known globally.

Less known, though, are pre-existing conditions in Thailand that weakened its immunity against shocks such as the pandemic, and threaten to reverse major development gains in a country whose poverty rate fell from 65.2% in 1988 to 8.4% in 2019.

Among these pre-Covid-19 conditions are high levels of household debt on top of savings rates that have been falling since 2007, the large number of people dependent on welfare cards and disturbing indicators on children's well-being.

In late 2019, the ratio of household debt to income was 148.8%, the highest since 2015, Bank of Thailand figures show. That makes for a household debt-to-GDP ratio of 79.1%, among the region's highest.

Since the welfare card scheme of cash transfers began in 2017, its coverage had grown to cover 71.5% of the poorest one-fifth of Thais as of 2019, World Bank data showed. Even before the pandemic, 35% of the heads of poor households were out of the labour force.

From 2015 to 2019, the percentage of children with stunting (13%), wasting (8%) as well as overweight (9%), had been rising, going by Unicef data. A total of 18% of upper secondary-aged children were out of school. Only 57% have basic reading skills and 51% basic numeracy skills, United Nations Children's Fund data show.

These chronic weaknesses have been around for at least the past five years, a period marked by economic and political changes and crises, including coups.

"Covid has caused problems for Thailand, but Thailand's economic problems preceded Covid. It's been the laggard in the region, and it's very much stuck in a middle-income trap," Patrick John Barron, World Bank adviser on fragility, conflict and violence, said at the Oct 27 discussion on vulnerable groups during Covid-19. "That suggests much larger structural issues in the country that need to be addressed."

Long-term roadmap needed

Development analysts have a shared prescription at this point: Thailand should unleash on the ailing economy the same systematic approach it has used to control Covid-19 infections.

"We are probably falling victim to our own [disease control] success story," said Somchai Jitsuchon, research director for inclusive development at the Thailand Development Research Institute. "We probably moved too close to the health issue, we should somehow move closer to the economic concerns as well," he said.

That the Thai government listened to public health experts is not in any doubt. But Mr Somchai says the government needs to have a long-term economic plan since Covid-19 will be around for some time -- and get a local public that is strongly against opening borders to buy into the idea of easing up on this to give the economy breathing room. "Now it is time to find a balance, how we should open, how much we should open," he explained.

Already, Mr Somchai said, Thailand's income inequality is rising. The graph he used at the World Bank event showed projections of its Gini coefficient, a measure of income distribution that was 36.4 in 2018, exceeding 50 in 2020.

Thailand's economy is expected to contract by 7.7% this year, the biggest in Southeast Asia. Of late, its growth figures have been going down too, from 4.2% in 2018 to 2.4% in 2019.

"Overall income levels had a shock and they're mostly not recovering [after the end of lockdown in May]. In some cases, they're getting worse," Thomas Parks, Asia Foundation chief for Thailand, said, citing results of a survey of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in manufacturing and tourism in June and September.

Only 8% of workers reported improvement in incomes since May. From March to May, individual incomes fell by 47% and those of informal workers -- which make up over half of workers -- dropped by 63%.

Twenty-three percent of tourism MSMEs and 21% of small-scale manufacturers surveyed by the Asia Foundation in June "have likely closed for good, or are on the verge of closing in September", Mr Parks added.

Surveys by Unicef in April to May confirm similar trends, including 90% of respondents reporting a fall in household income. Unicef specialist Tomoo Okubo added that 88% of households are in debt, and over a third reported having a lesser amount of food in each meal compared to pre-pandemic times.

What has worked in East Asia has been huge public spending to inject activity into economies at a scale that only states can do at this time, says World Bank country manager for Thailand Birgit Hansl. "It is something we would strongly advise the government to think about," she said.

"When we look at which countries we see recovering fast, it's China and Vietnam," she pointed out. "And it is because of public spending, massive public spending at this point, and massively in infrastructure, while [in] countries that have a lesser impact on public investment in infrastructure spending, including Thailand but also countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, we expect a much slower recovery."

Thailand's unprecedented pandemic relief package totals 2.2 billion baht. That makes up 12.9% of GDP, which the World Bank says is among the biggest in Southeast Asia.

But analysts identified problems such as people left out of the cash handouts for informal workers that ended in June, slow fund disbursement and banks' lukewarm reaction to the soft-loan package.

Mechanisms like the 400-billion-baht fund for economic revival are hobbled by a mismatch between the fund's aims and proposals sent in by state agencies, Mr Somchai said. Seventy to 80% of proposals "have nothing to do" [with restructuring]".

"The Thai government is still stuck with the idea of trying to solve day-to-day, short-term issues. They focus more on mitigation," said Mr Somchai. "There are many sectors that cannot be revived, cannot come back. (But) there's nothing on the table yet" as a medium and long-term economic roadmap, he added. Officials managing the health situation and the economy do not talk enough to each other, he said.

Public buy-in

As important as an economic plan is public acceptance of it, a crucial factor in Thailand's health response. Nearly a year since Thailand's first Covid-19 case, public sentiment is "inclined too much to the so-called zero domestic transmission", Mr Somchai said.

"The Thai economy is going to have to open up at some point. There will be more resistance against the state if the economy continues to do poorly," said Patrick John Barron, World Bank adviser on fragility, conflict and violence World Bank.

Mr Somchai suggests that the government step up tracking and testing capacity and allot funds to get vaccines in the future. Then, he says, it can assure Thais that there is a solid, safer system in place that allows more economic activity and open borders.

Poverty figures fell, but there are other worrisome poverty trends. Poverty rates in Thailand's poorest provinces, all located near its borders, are 49.1% in Mae Hong Son and 39.3% in Pattani. NESDC figures show. As of 2018, "most provinces had poverty rates that were higher than 2014", said World Bank senior economist Nadia Belhaj Hassine Belghith.

She adds that the decline in national poverty figures in 2017 and 2018 was actually not due to better wage incomes, but to income from state welfare assistance. From 2015 to 2017, poverty reduction reversed as market incomes fell, but "social assistance income buffers households", she said.

This means that Thailand's 8.4% poverty rate for 2019 would have been higher without welfare support, Ms Belghith explains. (She said 7.2% of the richest 20% of the population are on the welfare list too, reflecting "targeting problems" ).

Thailand's achievements in cutting the poverty rate thus "remain very fragile", Ms Belghith said. They rely on "public assistance rather than dynamic changes in terms of the economy", she added, stressing that Thailand's widening fiscal deficit (negative 2.3% in 2019 and seen to reach negative 4.1% this year) "questions the sustainability of the social assistance programmes".

"Yes, it is about balancing [health and economy], but it's also about prioritisation," said Ms Hansl, "and perhaps doing things a bit differently than in the past decades that worked very well in the past decades, but might not work at this time".

Johanna Son, who has followed regional issues for more than three decades, is editor/founder of the Reporting Asean series.



PPRP won't agree to change to monarchy - Bangkok Post

 PPRP won't agree to change to monarchy

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) has declared it will not support any charter amendment proposals seeking to revise provisions relating to the monarchy.

Speaking after yesterday's meeting of party MPs, PPRP spokeswoman and Bangkok MP Patcharin Sumsiripong said that while the party has agreed to proceed with charter amendments, the constitution's Chapters 1 and 2 must be left unchanged.

Chapter 1 contains sections which define Thailand as a single, indivisible kingdom and a democratic regime with the King as the head of state. Chapter 2, meanwhile, contains sections which deal with royal prerogatives.

The meeting also discussed preparations for a parliamentary session scheduled for Nov 17-18 to deliberate six charter amendments bills, Ms Patcharin said.

Regarding a move to seek a Constitutional Court review of three charter amendment bills, she said that some party MPs took part in the motion to seek the review out of concern that those proposed charter changes may be unconstitutional.

They had no intention to delay the amendment process, she said.

Government chief whip and PPRP MP Wirat Ratana­sate said coalition parties have agreed that they will vote to accept one of the six bills in the first reading, and then will set up a committee to vet the bill.

Mr Wirat also said that it remains to be seen whether parliament will vote to accept the draft sponsored by the Internet Dialogue on Law Reform (iLaw) which includes calls for the abolition of seven organic laws written under the current charter.

The seven laws involve the Senate, the procedures of the Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, the Ombudsman, graft and corruption, state auditing, and the national human rights body.

On Monday, 72 senators and MPs signed a motion to ask parliament to seek a Constitutional Court ruling on the three charter amendment proposals, including the iLaw version.

In the motion proposed by Senator Somchai Sawaengkarn and PPRP MP Paiboon Nititawan, the group said they were concerned the three drafts, which seek to pave the way for the drafting of a new charter, may be unconstitutional.

The motion was signed by 47 senators and 25 MPs, all from the main coalition party, the PPRP, who claim parliament is not authorised to "make" a new charter and the most it can do is to make changes.

Any action to allow the writing of a new charter is deemed unconstitutional, according to the motion.

Mr Paiboon said yesterday that he will propose the motion to parliament after the first reading of the charter amendment bills.

็However, Thepthai Senpong, a former Democrat MP for Nakhon Si Thammarat, said yesterday that a meeting of party MPs has agreed that they will vote against the motion to seek the court ruling on the three drafts.

He said that charter change was a precondition for joining the coalition led by the PPRP, and the Democrats will press ahead with the charter amendment push.

Mr Thepthai insisted that there was no need to seek the court's ruling because the bill sponsored by coalition parties was carefully considered, thus it was not against the constitution. The bill seeks to amend Section 256 to pave the way for a charter drafting body to be set up, he said.

The move to seek the ruling came after parliament was scheduled to scrutinise six such proposals next week. The iLaw-sponsored draft was expected to be tabled for examination later this month.

Yingcheep Atchanont, a representative of iLaw, said that the iLaw-sponsored amendment bill leaves both Chapters 1 and 2 of the constitution untouched.

The bill is primarily aimed at removing the power of the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order which remains in the charter so that democracy will return to the country, Mr Yingcheep said.



If we go by the number of deaths, the coronavirus is not the country's biggest health public health problem. Road accidents are - Bangkok Post



 Road accidents biggest health crisis

If we go by the number of deaths, the coronavirus is not the country's biggest health public health problem. Road accidents are.

Since the coronavirus hit the country early this year, the pandemic had claimed 60 lives as of mid-September, thanks to all-out preventive measures nationwide. The coronavirus deaths in the past six months are about the number of road casualties in just one day.

Thailand's roads are the deadliest in Southeast Asia and among the worst in the world, according to the World Health Organisation. About 20,000 people die in road accidents each year, or about 56 deaths a day.

Despite a myriad of government measures to reduce road casualties, they show no sign of abating.

To save lives, we need a systematic and comprehensive database to establish the causes of road accidents accurately. Such comprehensive and correct road accident data is key to effective road safety measures to reduce road deaths.

At present, different state agencies are compiling information about road accidents separately. These organisations include the Royal Thai Police, the Office of Insurance Commission, the Public Health Ministry, the Ministry of Transport, and many other local organisations. Since they have different purposes, how they define the information they are gathering is different. For example, traffic accident costs. For the Department of Highways, this term means the damage incurred to its properties only. For the Public Health Ministry, the damage means medical expenses from the accidents. For the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, the term covers the damage incurred to state assets, private properties, and medical costs.

With such a fragmented information system and different definitions of what they are looking at, there is no common database for sharing across all state agencies.

To fix this problem, the Department of Disease Control, Public Health Ministry, has created a more integrated database on road fatalities from three databases. First, death certificates and other official documents reporting deaths. Second, the police database on traffic crash reports. And third, the e-claim database system on road deaths compensation, mostly from motorcycle crashes.

So far, this is the country's most extensive database on road deaths. Yet, it is far from sufficient because it still does not cover the number of injured people, the causes of accidents, and driver behaviour.

Since road safety is on Thailand's national agenda, a comprehensive database on all the factors involved is essential for policy formulation and the investment in effective measures to reduce road accidents.

To fill the gap, the Thailand Research Development Institute and Asia Transportation Research Society have teamed up in a joint study to identify major causes of road accidents. Entitled "Understanding and Analysing Accident Data", the study uses the databases that are scattered across various state agencies such as police stations, hospitals and local administrative units. We then use an application to process the information to find the factors that cause accidents and their severity.

Generally, road accidents occur from three causes: human error, the vehicles and the roads. From the 833 cases in our study, we have found that the main cause of road accidents involves road factors such as road safety equipment, road slopes, warning signs and road signs. Meanwhile, poor surfaces and bad weather are the environmental factors that worsen the severity of the road accidents.

Still, this study is too limited because the traffic crash reports are incomplete. For example, there is very little information about driver behaviour, so much so that it is not possible to analyse how the driver or driving behaviour is related to two other accident factors -- car and road conditions -- as the cause of accidents.

The country's accident database system needs significant improvements. For starters, it needs to have sufficient data on driver behaviour. It also needs to operate as an integrated system that can connect with other agencies dealing with road accidents. This inter-connected and comprehensive system will uncover other factors that cause road accidents, leading to more effective policy and preventive measures to curb road fatalities.

In a nutshell, we need an integrated and standardised database system on road accidents that can be used across all agencies involved. This database system is necessary for the National Road Accident Prevention and Reduction Policy Commission to meet its goals more effectively.

The Department of Disease Control has spearheaded change by developing a more integrated database system on road accidents. Yet the system faces hurdles from incomplete traffic crash reports and different meanings of the terms used in the databases as well as their different standards on compensation. The concerns over the privacy of individuals involved also prevent state agencies from sharing their database with others.

But the e-government mechanisms under the Digital Government Development Agency (DGA) can provide a way out.

The Royal Decree on the Establishment of the Digital Government Development Agency (Public Organisation) 2018 has given the DGA the authority to standardise state information, to import the database from other state agencies and integrate inter-agency databases that include their knowledge bases and budgets.

As an intermediary, the DGA can facilitate the processes to integrate road accident databases from different state agencies. As a result, each car crash report will feature complete information about driver behaviour, injuries, medical treatment, road conditions, environmental factors and compensation -- all in the same database system.

This integrated system is in line with the country's policy drives to create e-government. It will reveal the causes of car accidents in full, enabling policymakers to hit the right targets and effectively reduce road accidents and casualties.

Short of this comprehensive, interconnected database system, the roads in Thailand will likely remain among the most deadly in the world.

Jitlaykha Sukruay is a researcher at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). Policy analyses from TDRI appear in the Bangkok Post on alternate Wednesdays.