Thailand's billionaire tourism minister Pipat Ratchakitprakan is prepared to declare Pattaya and Chonburi as a "sandbox" if officials there can stop one thing.
Foreigners sneaking out elsewhere.
A "sandbox" is the latest Thai jargon meaning an area where foreign tourists would be allowed to go where they would not have to quarantine at all.
This is expected to be just for vaccinated tourists and the earliest it would start is July 1st of 2021.
Picture: Manager
Pipat as reported by Manager said that being in a sandbox is dependent on vaccination and the readiness of Chonburi people.
They would need to be able to ensure that foreign tourists didn't go out of Pattaya and Chonburi.
So sneaking off for a night out in Bangkok, for example, would be a definite no-no.
Sandbox is a term often reserved for what children play in, notes Thaivisa.
Pipat was at City Hall yesterday along with provincial governor Phakrathorn Thienchai and Pattaya's mayor Sontaya Kunplome on the top table at a meeting of Pattaya and Chonburi tourazzi.
Anybody who is anyone in the tourism industry.
Pipat outlined the current situation that 7 day quarantine will await specific foreign tourists who had received two doses of vaccine against Covid-19 under the Area Quarantine plan.
Ten day quarantine for those that hadn't been jabbed.
Africans - 14 days.
But the way forward thereafter - that's where the sandbox comes in.
Sontaya chipped in that Pattaya is ready for Area Quarantine.
There were already 11 hotels offering State Quarantine and 20 catering to Alternative Local State Quarantine.
In addition another 20 had expressed an interest in offering Area Quarantine.
He explained that two zones would be created in Pattaya - the sandbox zone and the area quarantine zone.
There would be specific areas where Thais and foreigners could be together.
This interesting tidbit was not expanded on by Manager, notes Thaivisa.
Picture: Manager
Maybe it could mean that foreign tourists could actually go to bars and clubs if they were in the sandbox zone come July.
In other news Sontaya said that the tourism sector has requested up to a million doses of vaccine so that people in the industry including foreigners and foreign migrants could be vaccinated ahead of the sandbox plan.
BANGKOK: Phuket will submit its reopening plan to the Centre for Economic Situation Administration (CESA) for approval this Friday (Mar 26) in a bid to let inoculated tourists visit without quarantine in July, while Samui also hastened the reopening process with a sealed model.
Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said the reopening plan, known as the Phuket Tourism Sandbox, will depend largely on vaccine allocation to the Andaman island as it must achieve herd immunity by inoculating 70% of the population before letting foreign visitors in by that date, reports the Bangkok Post.
The plan, to be submitted to CESA on March 26, will include a vaccination proposal, indicating the number of doses needed and the timeline of inoculation that will be suitable for a safe reopening.
He said public communities tend to consent to this plan more than last year's Phuket model as it is equipped with a more elaborate plan that can convince them with health safety measures.
According to the sandbox proposal, Phuket needs to vaccinate at least 466,587 people which requires 933,174 doses. To reach the immunity goal within the time frame, it should start the first round of inoculations by April 15, followed by the second from May 15 onward.
"Previously, Phuket set the Phuket First October for quarantine-free entry. But the new sandbox with an earlier starting date will benefit the whole country as we can evaluate this programme first before Thailand reopens all its borders in October," said Mr Yuthasak.
He said long-haul markets are likely to visit Thailand in the initial stage. The post-pandemic travel which needs extra requirements, such as a COVID-19 test and insurance, means travellers will opt for a longer stay and spend more for each trip.
Bhummikitti Raktaengam, president of the Phuket Tourist Association, said the tourism sandbox will help contribute at least B84.3 billion to the island's economy, which is higher than the previous reopening plan set for October that expected to generate B55bn.
At present, the private sector and provincial government are confident about the plan, but the success factor is based on the vaccination programme which is the only unclear direction. Local operators still want the central government to make a decision.
Under the sandbox plan, tourists who want to join the quarantine-free programme are required to show a vaccine certificate, vaccine passport or IATA travel pass. They still have to take a PCR test at the airport and activate the ThailandPlus tracing application while in Phuket.
"Both the private and public sectors in the province are ready. But to proceed with the plan, we need vaccine rollouts within the timeline," said Mr Bhummikitti.
Meanwhile, Ratchaporn Poolsawadee, president of the Tourism Association of Koh Samui, said Koh Samui will introduce sealed routes to international tourists that keep them away from residents.
Both vaccinated and non-vaccinated tourists are required to stay in their hotel rooms for the first two days and get a swab test on the second day. If the result is negative, they can travel to designated areas within the island such as Ang Thong Marine National Park and Koh Tan from the fourth to the seventh days.
Thailand Economic Monitor January 2021: Restoring Incomes; Recovering Jobs
COVID-19 has severely affected the Thai economy, which was already weakening even prior to the global outbreak. While signs of improvement have emerged in the most recent data, the second wave of COVID-19 cases could constrain domestic demand in the near-term.
The Thai economy is expected to have contracted by 6.5 percent in 2020.
Private consumption is expected to have contracted by 1.3 percent in 2020 due to the imposition of mobility restrictions and social distancing measures, and the resulting reductions in jobs and incomes.
Private investment is expected to have declined by 4.4 percent amid continued uncertainty around the medium-term outlook for exports and growth.
The external sector remains depressed. Services exports have suffered a severe contraction as international border restrictions remain in place and international tourism remains negligible. Goods exports have been hit by deteriorating external goods demand but recovered toward the end of 2020.
Supported by an easing of mobility restrictions and the provision of government stimulus, the economy saw a smaller contraction of -6.4 percent in Q3 2020 (yoy) compared to the -12.1 percent contraction in Q2. Partial indicators of consumption and investment continued to improve in October and November.
The contraction of 6.5 percent expected for the full-year 2020 has been revised upwards by 1.8 percentage points since the October 2020 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, due to this stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of the year.
The financial sector has so far been able to weather the pandemic shock. However, increased corporate vulnerabilities and elevated levels of household debt pose significant risks as household debt in Thailand is the second highest in East Asia (at 80.2 percent of GDP in March 2020) and NPLs are particularly high for SMEs.
The policy response has acted to bolster economic activity and support the livelihoods of the most vulnerable.
Thailand has performed relatively well compared to its peers in the region in terms of the scale, speed, and targeting of its fiscal response, which has centered on a 1 trillion baht package to fund cash transfers, the medical response, and economic and social rehabilitation. New large-scale cash transfer programs have been established to support vulnerable groups who would not otherwise have been covered by existing social assistance mechanisms.
The implementation of measures to provide soft loans to SMEs as part of the overall pandemic response has proved challenging. The disbursement of these loans has fallen below expectations while overall credit growth to SMEs has slowed.
The fiscal deficit widened sharply as the government ramped up spending to mitigate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 on households and firms. The budgetary central government deficit expanded to 5.9 percent of GDP in FY2020 (year ended September), from 2.3 percent of GDP in FY2019, while government debt increased to 49.4 percent of GDP in September 2020.
Thailand's economy is expected to recover gradually over the next two years, but the outlook remains highly uncertain.
Following an estimated contraction of 4.4 percent in 2020, global growth is projected to be 4.0 percent in 2021
Thailand's economy is projected to rebound to 4.0 percent in 2021 and pick up further to 4.7 percent in 2022, underpinned by a recovery in domestic demand and supportive fiscal policy.
But Thailand's economic outlook remains highly uncertain due to risks from external and domestic sources. If the new wave of infection in Thailand is not well contained, or if global cases continue to rise and progress on distributing a vaccine is slower than anticipated, economic activity could continue to be disrupted by social distancing measures and lockdowns. The premature removal of fiscal and financial relief could also hinder Thailand's recovery.
There are also downside risks due to financial vulnerabilities, a resumption of trade tensions and supply-chain disruptions, and political unrest. COVID-19 may also have longer-term scarring impacts on potential output, including through its effects on the labor market.
This edition of the Thailand Economic Monitor provides an in-depth analysis of recent developments in Thailand's labor market and discusses policies to drive a jobs recovery from COVID-19
The COVID-19 outbreak has created several additional challenges in the labor market. The primary impact has been a spike in unemployment, with a large increase among young people, and a widespread reduction in hours worked.
As a result of the pandemic, the unemployment rate doubled from 1.0 percent in the first quarter of 2019 to 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2020, the highest level since 2009 with a particularly large increase for young people.
By the second quarter of 2020 there were 700,000 fewer jobs in aggregate than a year earlier, and 340,000 fewer than the previous quarter.
Employment losses were widespread across sectors with more significant losses in terms of numbers of jobs lost in Manufacturing and Wholesale and Retail, while the Agriculture sector acted as a safety net.
Hours worked fell by 5.7 percent for men and 7.2 percent for women between the first and second quarters of 2020, reflecting a spike in zero-hour workers and an increase in workers working fewer than 40 hours a week. The reduction in hours worked and other labor market adjustments resulted in a decline of private sector average monthly wages of 5.4 percent in the Agriculture sector and 1.9 percent outside of it.
By the third quarter, some of these impacts had moderated. The labor force participation rate increased in the third quarter and employers added nearly 850,000 jobs resulting in year-on-year job growth of more than 1 percent. This continued in the first two months of the fourth quarter.
Still, the unemployment rate remained elevated at the end of 2020, hours worked have not fully recovered, and several sectors including Manufacturing remain smaller than a year ago.
Thailand's rapidly aging population means that the working age share of the population will decline. Absent other changes. this will decrease average annual growth in GDP per capita by 0.86 percent in the 2020s.
For the recovery from the COVID-19 outbreak to be sustainable in the context of Thailand's rapidly aging population, good jobs will need to be created in high-productivity sectors associated with Thailand's emerging knowledge economy. Productivity improvements and increases in the labor market participation of older people and women can counterbalance the negative growth effects of an aging population.
Policy recommendations for a sustained jobs recovery include:
In the short term:
(i) Deploy upskilling and reskilling training programs and provide financial support to help displaced workers get back to work.
(ii) A resurgence of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand could require a renewed focus on employment retention policies like wage subsidies that seek to keep workers in their jobs and job creation policies that could help make up for reduced working hours.
These programs should be followed by longer-term efforts which include:
(iii) Create a more demand-driven and results-oriented workforce development system by revamping skills training courses and modernizing employment services.
(iv) Promote employment in the care sector, particularly in the evolving market for aged care, which will require both lower skilled workers and highly trained specialists.
(v) Make childcare more accessible and decrease its cost to help increase female labor force participation.
(vi) Encourage firms to adopt flexible working arrangements for older people and invest in age-friendly workplaces, deploy performance-based compensation schemes and considering increasing the retirement age to extend the working lives of older people.
Thai-developed Covid-19 vaccine starts human trials
Dr Nakorn Premsri, director of the National Vaccine Institute, and Dr Lorenz Von Seidlein, a vaccine expert at the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), join the forum on "Covid-19 and Thailand's Vaccine Strategy" at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand (FCCT) in Bangkok on Jan 13. Jonathan Head, the BBC Southeast Asia correspondent and FCCT vice president, moderated the event. (Photo by Thana Boonlert.)
The government started human trials on Monday of a domestically developed coronavirus vaccine and expects to deploy it next year, which its health minister said could give the country more freedom with its vaccine policy.
The vaccination drive is targeting the inoculation of half the adult population by the end of the year using 61 million doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine, which will be locally produced from June.
The home-grown vaccine candidate is being developed by state drug maker, the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO), with Mahidol University's Tropical Medicine Department and an American non-profit and uses an inactivated virus to trigger immunity.
"The vaccine, produced by Thais for Thais, is expected to be used next year," Piyasakol Sakolsatayadorn, chairman of the Mahidol University Council, told a news conference.
Thailand's progress comes as countries including Japan and Taiwan speed up domestic vaccine development programmes amid tight global supply and concerns about new Covid-19 variants.
Vietnam last week said its locally developed vaccine would be available by the fourth quarter of this year.
Mahidol University's dean, Bangjong Mahaisavariya, said 460 volunteers would be accepted for the human trials, 210 of whom would be used in the first phase. Phase two is expected to begin in July, with results by year-end.
The Thai vaccine candidate modifies the avian Newcastle Disease virus with a Covid-19 spike protein and is replicated using egg-based technology, the GPO said.
Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said the vaccine would give Thailand more options with less constraints.
"Even though we can produce vaccines in the country, it is from technology transfer and under management of brands," he told the news conference.
"But today, if we are successful we can set our own direction."
Another homegrown vaccine is being developed by Chulalongkorn University and uses Messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. It is expected to start human trials soon.
Thailand has recorded 27,876 coronavirus cases in total, with 91 deaths.
Phuket hopes vaccine will put them back in the sun
Will Phuket ever turning the corner...?
Thailand's Phuket island used to vibrate with life. Before the pandemic, March was part of peak season and the resort's long white beaches were packed with tourists from Europe, Australia, North America and China.
At night, backpackers would flock to beach-front bars and on the hills stretching inland wealthy tourists would eat at five-star restaurants.
Today, Phuket is a ghost town. The shockwaves of Covid-19 have reduced daily visitor numbers from up to 50,000 down to just hundreds. But there is hope that plans to bring tourists back could change the fortunes of the beach town, and the country.
"If visitors come, we'll all make more money," says Tow Jaturaput, a 30-year-old taxi driver, whose main job is shuttling visitors to their hotels from the airport.
"Tourists have a lot of money, and we benefit from it too," he said, adding that today, there's simply not enough business for the resort to thrive.
The number of fares in a day for him is at an all time low.
"I'm not afraid of [contracting the virus] at all from the tourists. I want more people to come. I think most of us are ready."
Earlier this month, the Thai government announced a plan to kickstart tourism. The "area quarantine scheme", scheduled to begin in April, would allow vaccinated tourists to quarantine in specified hotels for only seven days.
Vaccinated tourists registered with the plan would fly to selected locations deemed safe for visitors. Tourist hubs like Koh Samui and Phuket are top of the list because they have their own airports.
According the tourism ministry, visitors would need to quarantine in a hotel room for the first three days, then if they continued to test negative, would be allowed out of their rooms at the resort.
Officials have not announced full details of the plan, but suggested that vaccinated tourists would theoretically be allowed to leave their hotels and explore some city areas after repeatedly testing negative. It's likely they would still be subject to monitoring and check-ins with authorities.
A ministry spokesperson said it's hoped the scheme will "help save our tourism partners and local communities" by allowing international arrivals "in line with the safety and health measures and create both direct and indirect income in each province and start the rehabilitation of Thai tourism".
The move comes after the government announced a "yacht quarantine programme" that would let tourists who can prove they don't have Covid-19 live aboard yachts or take cruises in Phuket. Koh Samui and Phuket hope to open fully to vaccinated tourists – without quarantine – by October and the government is aiming for a full reopening of the country by January 2022.
'Like a dead town'
The grounding of international flights in 2020 to contain Covid was a major blow to businesses across the country.
While Thailand's strict entry requirements and quarantine protocols have helped keep the country's Covid cases at just 26,000, and 85 deaths, it has had severe consequences for the economy, which in 2020 shrank by the biggest amount since the Asian financial crisis more than two decades ago.
A bit part of that was from the decline in tourism, which makes up a fifth of the country's GDP, including in jobs in transport, travel agencies, restaurants and hotels. In 2019 alone it was worth $60bn.
Although the borders reopened to foreign visitors in October, quarantine restrictions have deterred most tourists from returning in high numbers.
"I think the time spent in quarantine is the main issue for a lot of tourists," says Thibault Spithakis, a Phuket bar and restaurant owner and founder of Chalong Bay distillery, a spirit brand popular with tourists. "Because two weeks in quarantine is too time costly and many don't have the luxury to cover the costs of the quarantine. So reducing the quarantine time is interesting," he said.
A small group of people gather at a relatively empty Patong Beach in Phuket. Photograph: Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Getty Images
He said the pandemic had hit the tourism industry and the informal sector that relied on it.
"Today, 95% of places have closed," he said, adding that Phuket was designed to receive eight million tourists per year and was dependent on visitors.
"Now, it looks like a dead town," he said. "During the worst part, there were people lining up in the street for handouts from the local government,' he said. "So I think at this point it's okay to take a little bit of risk and try to accelerate the reopening of the economy. Safety is important, but the economic situation is very difficult for us and for people in Thailand generally."
'I'll be happy if people start coming back'
The proposed scheme to boost tourism comes as Thailand received its first batches of the AstraZeneca vaccine last Tuesday. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was the first person to be vaccinated, as some countries briefly paused the vaccine over safety fears.
"Today I'm boosting confidence for the general public," Prayuth told reporters at Government House as he got his shot.
The country has bought 61m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Thailand's government spokesperson, Anucha Burapachaisri, told the Guardian that the country is hoping to open up the economy for tourists and foreign investment as long as the plan stays within the safety and travel guidelines of the World Health Organization.
But many are hoping life might return to normal once the government allows more people to safely travel to Thailand. For those working in tourism dependent jobs like Tow, the plan could be a game changer.
"I'm not sure if they [the government] will open up flights or not, or if this vaccine plan will work, but I'll be happy if more people start coming back."
In Phuket's sleepy streets, something has to change.
"I want people to know that we're ready for more people to start coming back," Tow says. "I hope the government starts letting more people back in."
TWO new coronavirus clusters have been found with one being at a factory in Bangkok's Bang Khun Thian district and the other at some construction camps in Samut Prakan province, Amarin TV said this morning (March 22, 2021).
Two factory workers were examined at Rachaphiphat Hospital on Friday (March 19), and doctors found that they had been infected with this feared disease.
Public Health officials then went to the factory and found that there were 215 people at risk with 37 of them at a high level and 178 low. By testing the former group 28 more cases were found taking the total to 30.
Meanwhile the Department of Disease Control Director-General Dr. Opas Karnkawinpongs said 23 workers were found infected at construction camps in Samut Prakan province after a Cambodian woman tested positive when she went to renew her work permit but she was asymptomatic.
Covid testing was held at her camp in Sukhumvit soi 117 and 16 cases were found, 10 Cambodians, four Thais and two Myanmar citizens.
After that proactive testing was conducted at nearby camps with over 600 tested on March 18 and 593 on March 19 leading to six new cases of infection being found, adding up to a total of 23 cases.
Earlier this morning the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration's (CCSA's) assistant spokeswoman Dr. Apisamai Srirangsan said there were 73 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours with 66 being domestic and seven from other countries as well as one additional fatality taking to the toll to 91.
Altogether 15,492 cases of infection have been found through proactive screening with the cumulative confirmed total reaching 27,876. Sixty-five more patients have been cured adding up to 26,663 who have been discharged from hospital while 1,122 are still undergoing treatment.
The patient who died is a 60-year-old Thai man who was at the last stage of lung cancer. He was admitted to hospital on March 15 for severe pneumonia and passed away on March 18 after suffering from acute cardiac arrest.
More than 90% of the population of Thailand want to see the country opened up to foreign tourists.
This is not just to get the tourism economy running but the whole economy, they said.
This will put money back in their pockets, reported Daily News.
The support for an open door policy came in a "Superpoll" survey conducted among 1,600 respondents from all backgrounds from 17th to 20th of March.
The poll had the umbrella of "Opening the country - getting out of crisis".
Also more than 90% of the population felt that Thais have the vaccine now and know how to live with the consequences of Covid and have the health personnel to cope.
But those 90% plus advocating the opening of the country also wanted to see an end to the political violence, the gravy train and corrupt politicians.
They wanted to see foreign governments not siding with the "mob" but promoting the opening of the country and economy.
The message was clear that people are fed up with violence and want to see economic stability return and the best way to do that was opening Thailand's doors again.
They may have to wait a while yet, however.
The Thai government has so far only announced cautious policies to reopen the country in October when it has been mooted that quarantine MIGHT be stopped.
For now foreign visitors must still quarantine for up to 10 days.
Senior citizens exercising at Lumpini Park in Bangkok. (Photo by Weerawong Wongpreedee)
Thailand's elderly population is growing rapidly.
The country is already considered an "ageing" society, meaning 10% of the population is aged 60 and over, and has been since 2005. It is transitioning to an "aged" society, with those aged 60 and over set to account for 20% of the population this year.
Thailand's trajectory sees it becoming a "super-aged" society in 2031, where those aged 60 and over make up 28% of the population.
These demographics present great challenges for policymakers and demand an urgency in planning.
Various studies have revealed Thailand is relatively low in the rankings for savings worldwide, with a study conducted by Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) in 2019 showing middle-income people in urban areas need to have savings of about 4.3 million baht per household to ensure they have sufficient cash to spend upon reaching the retirement age of 60.
The elderly in remote areas are estimated to need 2.8 million baht.
Given such figures, there are serious doubts about how many Thai families can afford to retire given insufficient savings.
SAVINGS PLANS LACKING
Thai households have a relatively low rate of savings, unlikely to meet future living requirements of the elderly population, said Jinanggoon Rojananan, deputy secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).
The socioeconomic survey of Thai households in 2019 by TDRI found only 120,000 families in Thailand had an income of more than 2.8 million baht -- 0.5% of total households.
According to the NESDC's report, among 37.9 million members of the Thai workforce in 2020, 17.5 million had social security plans, including a pension fund, provident fund or social security fund as required by Sections 33 and 39 of the Social Security Act.
The remaining 20.4 million were labourers participating in voluntary savings plans including the National Savings Fund (NSF), a voluntary pension fund for self-employed workers.
According to Ms Jinanggoon, the NESDC found Thais start saving at age 42 on average, compared with 30 in the US.
Household investment in 2019 made up only 2.2% of total households in the country, while one-third of Thai workers were in the farm sector, which fetches low income and has low productivity, she said.
"Even worse, Gen Y Thais like to purchase luxury items that take up to 69% of their salaries, which average 100,000 baht a month. These are mainly mobile phones, clothes, cosmetics, electronic equipment, watches and ornaments. Total purchases made by Gen Y amounted to 1.37 trillion baht a year, or about 13% of the GDP. Some 70% of purchases are financed by bank loans, credit cards and cash cards," said Ms Jinanggoon.
"This indicates young people lack proper savings and financial planning because they overspend. The government must step up in promoting savings and improve savings-related regulations to build financial security."
HEAVY BURDEN
She said the growing number of aged people will add a burden for the workforce, forcing them to care for their elders as well as their children.
The dependence ratio per 100 workers to the elderly is expected to surge to 79.1 in 2040, up from 53.8 in 2020.
"Once Thailand becomes a full-fledged aged society, while the fertility rate remains relatively low, a labour shortage may occur. This would cause a slowdown in long-term economic growth because of low consumption and higher medical expenses for the elderly," said Ms Jinanggoon, citing a NESDC study from 2019 showing government spending on healthcare for the elderly is estimated to reach 554 billion baht in 2040, up from 406 billion in 2017.
Revenue from income tax collection is projected to fall substantially, possibly adding risk to the country's fiscal discipline in the long run.
The study also found savings among the elderly insufficient to provide them financial security. This may eventually result in greater poverty among the elderly and more dependence on government financial assistance, she said.
LONG-TERM THREATS
KKP Research, a research house under Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, issued a report finding Thailand's rapidly changing demographic structure has deteriorated the country's economic expansion over the past several years, with this challenge creating more economic pressure in the longer term.
"Thailand is approaching becoming a full-fledged aged society while still stuck in the middle-income trap. In 2020, the average age of Thais was estimated at 40.1 years old, ranking as the oldest among Asia's emerging economies," the research said.
"Given this scenario, the impact on structural problems will deepen, especially for domestic consumption and investment. The government will definitely face a higher fiscal burden due to rising welfare spending."
Thailand's old-age dependency ratio is projected to increase from 18% in 2020 to 30% in 2030.
The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of elderly people at an age when they are generally economically inactive, compared with the number of people of working age.
"Given the changing demographic structure, the greying population trend is expected to affect economic growth in all dimensions," said KKP.
"Future potential growth rates could possibly drop to 2.6-2.8% from 3.2-3.5% now."
As a result, Thailand needs structural economic reform to sustain the growth rate in the long run, said the research.
Innovative technology and development are necessary to replace human labour. Improving productivity and competitiveness via the creative economy and high value-added products are key solutions, the report recommended.
The government should also support legal amendments to promote cross-border labour movement and evolve from labour-intensive industries to technology and automation.
The government should facilitate ease of doing business by encouraging productivity and competitiveness in the private sector, the report found.
RISING JOB LOSSES
Tanit Sorat, vice-chairman of the Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry, predicted more older workers may lose their job, dealing a further blow to unemployment during the pandemic.
Workers over age 50 are likely to be offered early retirement as their employers are more concerned about costs in an economic slump.
"The longer they work with companies, the higher their salaries," said Mr Tanit.
"Notably in the post-pandemic period, companies are expected to use more technology to replace human workers. This is a trend happening worldwide."
Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, president of Thai Hotels Association, said all employees are at risk of being laid off given the unprecedented crisis in tourism, but the risk is highest for those with the shortest and longest experience on the job.
According to the Tourism Council of Thailand, the tourism sector employs an estimated 4 million people, with less than 20% workers aged 60 or older, mostly in senior positions.
She said most senior hoteliers aged 55-60 may not be able to return to the hospitality business after being laid off.
They would prefer to spend retirement with their families in their hometown, or take on extra jobs rather than working in the tourism industry.
Mrs Marisa said this is a point of concern for hotels because senior workers understand tourist behaviour and are familiar with regular guests.
"Strong organisations have diverse age ranges because every generation can complement the others," Mrs Marisa said.
"But workers in the hotel business need to adapt for flexibility in order to multitask."
The hotels association set up a working group to prepare for post-pandemic business, including upskilling and reskilling programmes for the workforce and redesigning organisational charts for greater efficiency.
She suggested the government offer continued financial support such as debt holidays to help individual workers who lost their jobs.
Seniors at the Elderly Learning Centre on Lat Phrao Soi 23. Somchai Poomlard
RETIREMENT SAVINGS PLANS
Jiraporn Plangpraphan, senior researcher at TDRI, said the government desperately needs serious plans to build up financial security, particularly for the elderly.
"The government no longer has time to dance around or procrastinate. Serious savings promotion needs to be accelerated. New generations who have just started working have to set up a feasible savings system for their future living requirements," said Ms Jiraporn.
"Without serious and speedy savings plans, the government's spending for the elderly will skyrocket in the near future."
She said the current monthly stipends for 11 million elderly people cost the government nearly 100 billion baht a year.
Ms Jiraporn also suggests the government come up with measures to promote retirement savings. One option is faster enforcement of the National Pension Fund Act, which requires all companies in Thailand to establish provident funds for their employees, while another choice is an amendment to the existing NSF to allow people who are already in retirement savings systems such as the Social Security Fund (SSF) to become members, allowing more savings.
The Social Security Fund Act needs to be upgraded to ensure sufficient income after retirement, she said, citing a proposal to raise contributions from SSF members from 15,000 baht to 20,000 baht a month to help sustain the fund and ensure it can meet its old-age pension payout requirements in the future.
As most employers and employees will resist a proposal to raise the fund's contribution rates, fearing the higher financial burden, Ms Jiraporn said the government must try its best to convince employees of the benefits of higher contributions to ensure the fund compensates all members over the long term.
At the same time, she said, the government needs to build up confidence and transparency in SSF management in order to draw more people to participate in the system.
"The government should work to assure SSF members the fund will never fail, showing state readiness to shore up contributions in an emergency," said Ms Jiraporn.
NSF MEMBERSHIP DRIVE
Charuluck Ruangsuwan, the NSF secretary-general, said the fund is a key pillar of the country's retirement savings system, though it is vulnerable to threats. The NSF already proposed extending the maximum membership age to 65 from 60, as stipulated by law to promote savings.
The fund also asked the Finance Ministry to help consider increasing state contributions from a maximum of 1,200 baht to 1,800 baht per year.
The existing structure requires voluntary pension fund members to make a minimum contribution of 50 baht per year, up to a 13,200-baht maximum.
There is no requirement for a fixed monthly contribution.
The government makes a matching contribution of up to 50% of whatever members aged 15-30 choose to pay, for up to 600 baht a year.
For those aged 31-50, the government matches up to 80% of their contributions, up to 960 baht a year. The state matches 100% of members' contributions for those aged 51-60, with the maximum amount capped at 1,200 baht per year.
If state contributions are raised to 1,800 baht per year, fund members would receive a higher amount of money at different ages, while the percentage contribution from the government would remain the same, said Ms Charuluck.
The NSF has cumulative savings of 8 billion baht. Most of the capital is invested in highly stable assets, with a minimal portion invested in equities. Last year the return was 2.75%.
PENSION INSURANCE RETHINK
As the Thai population ages, insurance companies will have to rethink the products offered to this demographic to fit their specific needs, suggests Thai Life Assurance Association president Sara Lamsam.
While health insurance helps curb medical and hospital expenses, the policy cost increases as people age, while pension insurance provides steady payments that do not scale up, he said.
"You should think about this early, while your health is still strong," said Mr Sara. "The insurance premium for the young is cheaper because of longer-term savings commitments."
Last year pension insurance grew by 17.5% amid the outbreak. This product pays regular amounts to policyholders when they reach retirement age.
However, he said the products do not yield enough money for life after retirement.
The association and the Office of the Insurance Commission are discussing revising pension insurance to serve an ageing society, as the number of elderly keep growing.
"In the future, pension insurance schemes should be linked to services related to the lifestyles of seniors, such as hospitals and nursing homes," said Mr Sara.
New tax rule to hit berry pickers' income in Sweden
Berry picking in Sweden is a highly-sought job among Thai workers, but things may change this year after the Scandinavian country introduced a special income tax for short-term foreign workers.
Under the new tax regime approved by Swedish lawmakers in November last year, foreign workers who are employed no more than 183 days per year will pay a 25% income tax.
Suchart Pornchaiwisetkul, director-general of the Department of Employment (DoE), said a campaign is now under way to inform Thai job seekers and job placement agencies of the new tax rules.
Thais usually travel to Sweden and Finland to take up jobs at berry farms between July and September every year.
In Sweden, for instance, the minimum monthly income is guaranteed at 23,500 Swedish krona, or about 85,070 baht. According to labour officials estimates, Thai workers can expect to bring home between 13,327-31,156 baht for three months of work, after taxes and living expenses.
"Based on the department's calculations, it is highly likely Thai berry pickers will earn less in the upcoming seasons'', Mr Suchart said.
Job seekers need to be warned of the changes so they can make an informed decision, especially since many were known to borrow money to cover their initial placement costs, he said.
Despite the changes in Stockholm, Mr Suchart said the Finnish Tax Authority has informed Thai officials that it is making no change to the tax rules for berry pickers in its 2021 season.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is keeping an eye for any changes and will keep workers informed, he said.
According to the department chief, demand for Thai berry pickers in Finland is high, with the Finnish berry industry informing the nation's labour officials that they want 8,703 Thai workers to cover this season.
He said the DoE, which has job quotas for berry pickers in Sweden and Finland, will do its best to allocate the spots available.
The net income of a berry picker in Finland, who are allowed to work for 55 days during harvest season each year, ranges between 90,000 and 150,000 baht.
Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin also said the ministry has been informed of the new tax rules by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is working to help cushion impacts to be brought by the change.
In November last year, Anucha Burapachaisri, spokesman for the government, said a total of 5,245 Thai berry pickers travelled to the two Scandinavian countries for berry-picking jobs and brought home at least 618.3 million baht.
According the tourism ministry, visitors would need to quarantine in a hotel room for the first three days, then if they continued to test negative, would be allowed out of their rooms at the resort.
