3 months of semi-lockdown required to bring pandemic under control – KKP Research | Thai PBS World

3 months of semi-lockdown required to bring pandemic under control – KKP Research

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KKP Research, of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, has predicted that the latest COVID-19 outbreak will be longer than expected, due to the Delta variant, the slow imposition of lockdown measures and slow roll out of mass vaccinations, and that semi-lockdown measures will have to be in place for at least three months to ease the situation. 

If the restrictive measures are kept in place for three months, this year's GDP growth will drop to 0.5%, from the initial forecast of 1.5%. Although exports are improving, it is not enough to cushion the overall effects on this year's economy and it is not expected that the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.

If there is a prolonged partial lockdown, the manufacturing and export sectors, which are the only hope for the country's economy, will also be affected, according to the thinktank.

KKP Research also suggested that the government improve their policies and impose measures to control the spread, such as by communicating transparently with the public regarding the COVID-19 situation, imposing restrictive measures with a plan for the future, increasing the efficiency and efficacy of COVID-19 screening, investigation and treatment, using mRNA vaccines to support the development of herd immunity and preparing suitable relief measures.

The question now is whether the Pattaya lockdown will actually work - With the screws tightened yet again on dark red zones, including Pattaya, public morale is at rock bottom. But it was always inevitable that golf courses, sports centers and beauty shops would be caught in the tentacles of a comprehensive lockdown. Once the CCSA, the top government health committee, had ordered the citizenry to stay home “unless absolutely necessary” then trips to enjoy yourself or to have your hair cut or to take a bus ride were doomed. Sooner or later. Pattaya Mail

The question now is whether the Pattaya lockdown will actually work

Pattaya MailJuly 22, 2021

The isolation in lockdown cities is all-embracing.

With the screws tightened yet again on dark red zones, including Pattaya, public morale is at rock bottom. But it was always inevitable that golf courses, sports centers and beauty shops would be caught in the tentacles of a comprehensivelockdown. Once the CCSA, the top government health committee, had ordered the citizenry to stay home "unless absolutely necessary" then trips to enjoy yourself or to have your hair cut or to take a bus ride were doomed. Sooner or later.



So Pattaya is now a city of intense regulation, similar to the lockdown of April 2020. The one exception is alcohol which you can still buy in stores provided you drink it at home on your own. A provincial order earlier in the month banned booze-enjoyment if more than one person was present. Ambiguity still persists about walking along the beach, although that detail could be clarified by an order from the Pattaya mayor. The legislative problem is that the Pattaya beaches are currently home to hundreds of homeless people dependent on public charity.

Lockdowns certainly have their negative macro issues because mankind is a social animal needing to mix. Awesome restrictions assume that being at home is safer than being outside which most published research denies, that is unless you live alone. They also assume that everyone is at equal risk, whereas we know that children are more resistant than adults and that most people don't end up in hospital or the mortuary.



The World Health Organization cautions that lockdowns should not be the primary mechanism of control because, at best, it delays contagion especially in countries with low vaccination rates. The massive number of failed businesses inevitably leads to financial intervention by the government, but the billions of cash borrowed has to be repaid unless money does grow on trees after all. The longer a lockdown lasts, the more likely the public will be to break the rules out of sheer frustration. The number of police raids on illegal Pattaya parties last year grew massively in the second half of the curfew period then in force.

That's not to say that lockdowns are necessarily useless. International research from Oxford University recently argued that they should be taken with other interventions, such as mask-wearing, quarantine, social distancing and a ban on public gatherings, to restrict the spread of Covid-19, at any rate in some places. These measures are known as circuit breakers to interrupt the virus transmission cycle.

Pattaya, the city that never slept, is now unconscious.

Taken together, circuit breakers can stem the transmission of coronavirus and disrupt infection peaks, thus allowing health services some breathing space to deal with other non-Covid related illnesses such as seasonal flu. So a short period of total lockdown can be useful, but must be accompanied by a massive vaccination program which is still in its early stages in Thailand in general and Pattaya in particular. Whilst a vaccinated population is not an immunity panacea, it is less likely to end up in hospital or on a mortuary slab.

In the meantime, Pattaya's local population and expat community will likely suffer in silence, broken only by a lively commentary on social media. Some will turn to Zoom house-parties, virtual travel, new internet pen pals or even a major decluttering of their home. Others in more negative mode will seek refuge in solitary drinking sessions or online pornography. You might even find new talents you never knew about. William Shakespeare wrote his depressing play King Lear during a period of isolation in his room during a very nasty plague. Mind you, in the first version, that worthy royal did end up destitute and insane.

Dagens (22/7) Tio i Topp. PRD

 

Coup rumors within political and business circles have reached a crescendo this past week with many claiming that a putsch was imminent due to the worsening economic and Covid-19 situation. Bangkok Jack

Coup rumors within political and business circles have reached a crescendo this past week with many claiming that a putsch was imminent due to the worsening economic and Covid-19 situation.

The government has struggled to contain the pandemic with the country reporting more than 5,000 cases per day since June 28 with that number peaking over 10,000 cases per day for the past week.

The third wave, which started in Bangkok and surrounding provinces, has led to 397,612 cases and 3,408 deaths since April 1.

As a result of the crisis and a widely shared fake document which purported to show army orders preparing for a coup, many within the business community began to spread the rumor.

"We have to accept that the truth, the government is indecisive and lacks the trust from the people. Coup rumors comes out when the government is not competent," said Pheu Thai Deputy Leader Pichai Narithapan.

Since the rumors began, the army spokesman has come out to say that there will not be a coup. This is corroborated by sources within the military that tell Thai Enquirer that none is forthcoming.

However, opposition politicians warn that the public must maintain their vigilance.

Rangsiman Rome, a Move Forward MP, told Thai Enquirer that the denials are not always accurate as many times that a coup happens, "it is the army chief who denies that there will be a coup."

"We have to accept that in our political system the armed forces have never been reformed to be under a civilian government," he said. "As long as they are not under a civilian government, they can use their authority and our tax money to stage a coup."

"The people need to keep an eye on this." – ThaiEnquirer.Com

All quiet at airports in 13 "deep red zones" - Chiang Mai has no passengers for first time in 100 years. ASEAN NOW



Picture TNA MCOT

 

TNA MCOT reported from several airports in Thailand after air travel was halted in 13 deep red zone provinces yesterday for 14 days due to the latest spike in Covid-19 cases. 

 

At Hat Yai airport in the southern province of Songkhla there was only security staff and all shops and counters were shut. 

 

There have been 9,400 infections and 44 deaths in the province with a new cluster at the Sapsin market in Muang district resulting in the closure of the market until July 28th.

 

Meanwhile in Chiang Mai the media reported that there was barely a soul at the airport with no passengers for the first time in 100 years since the airport was founded.

 

There were just a few security staff and people packing up stock in shops. 

 

The last flights there were 990 passengers on six flights on Tuesday.

 

An airport official said they would be using the down time to do cleaning. 

 

The Chonburi Department of Public Health announced 620 new and confirmed cases of Covid-19 today with three new deaths, July 22nd . The Pattaya News

Chonburi Covid -19 cases drops to 620 with three new deaths

Thursday, 22 July 2021, 11:16

Chonburi –

The Chonburi Department of Public Health announced 620 new and confirmed cases of Covid-19 today with three new deaths, July 22^nd .

237 people were also released and recovered yesterday in Chonburi.

This makes a total of 17,783 cases of Covid-19 in the current round of infections, with 9,874 still under medical care/supervision, and with a total of 85 recorded deaths in Chonburi since the start of this recent round of infections in early April. The details on yesterday's three new deaths were not given, which is standard for the health department.

Additionally, 9,874 people in total have now been released from medical care and recovered in Chonburi since this current wave began.

The district-level new cases were as follows today:

Mueang Chonburi 101, Si Racha 204, Banglamung (Pattaya) 151, Panat Nikhom 37, Sattahip 7, Ban Bueang 38, Pan Thong 31, Bor Thong 10, Ko Chan, 3, Nong Yai 5, Koh Sichang 2, and 31 new cases transferred from other provinces for medical care.

The details on the cases are as follows:

1. Cluster, a business in Ban Bueang, 17 cases
2. Cluster, Jaroonrat Factory in Ban Bueang, 7 cases
3. Cluster, a business in Panat Nikhom, 7 cases
4. Cluster, Excellent Manufacturing Co, Ltd in Ban Bueng, 4 cases
5. Cluster, Prime Products Industry, Bor Thong District, 2 cases
6. Close contacts of a confirmed patient from Syntech Construction Public Co., Ltd in Banglamung, 1 case
7. A risky career, meeting a lot of people, 9 cases
8. 2 medical personnel
9. Central Festival Pattaya Beach,1 case
10. Ever Bright Industrial Company Limited in Rayong, 2 cases
11. SS Imbustech company in Rayong, 1 case
12. Emerson Electric (Thailand) Co., Ltd in Rayong, 1 case
13. LG Electronics (Thailand) Co., Ltd in Rayong, 1 case
14. Provided a history of traveling to
    • Samut Prakan, 1 case
    • Chachoengsao, 1 case
15. Close contacts of a confirmed patient
    • Family members, 136 cases
    • Co-workers at workplaces, 50 cases
    • Close persons in general, 5 cases
    • Joined a party, 1 case
16. Close contacts of confirmed patients (under investigation), 179 cases
17. Under investigation in general, 192 cases

A total of 608 close contact searches were received today with 1,910 initial proactive searches, and more proactive search reports are pending.

There are currently, in Chonburi, clusters of Covid-19 at 15 establishments and five markets, 10 construction worker camps, and four communities.

The Chonburi Governor released an updated order last night (July 21st) with more Covid-19 related restrictions and closures. The order is effective today, July 22nd, 2021, until further notice.

Chonburi Governor releases more Covid-19 related restrictions and closures, effective until further notice

Business leaders offer 4-point strategy to revive Thai economy. The Nation

Business leaders offer 4-point strategy to revive Thai economy

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha met 40 CEOs and business leaders via video conferencing on Wednesday to discuss how the economy can be rebuilt in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis.

The event was hosted by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI)

"The prime minister said Thailand is facing difficult challenges, but both the government and private sector have the same goal – overcoming this crisis together," government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri said. "Therefore, all parties have to set aside their differences and build mutual understanding to achieve that goal."

FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree said the 40 CEOs have offered the government a four-point strategy on helping the business sector survive amid the worsening outbreak:

• Disease control: The government must work with private partners to establish non-hospital vaccine units to boost the inoculation rate as well as provide rapid testing to people at risk. A digital platform should be established to provide comprehensive telemedicine services to expand healthcare coverage and reduce the risk of infections in hospitals

• Remedies for businesses and individuals affected by lockdown: This should include not just businesses that were ordered shut but also industries that have suffered labour shortage due to the lockdown.

• Short- and long-term economic stimulus plans: The government must stimulate spending among high-income earners as well as promote private investments, which will result in a boost in employment and a more stable economy.

• Post-Covid rehabilitation plan: A public-private joint committee should be formed to design campaigns that help put the country back on the track of long-term development goals such as new agriculture promotion, quality tourism campaigns and digital transformation.

"Prime Minister Prayut thanked the CEOs for their suggestions and said the four-point proposal is in line with the government's policies in driving the country forward amid the outbreak," Anucha said. "The government will try to implement the strategies in the frame of law, and the premier insists we will be able to fully open the country within 120 days [as per a promise Prayut made on June 16]."

Health Ministry asks vaccine importers to prepare procurement plans for next year | Thaiger

Health Ministry asks vaccine importers to prepare procurement plans for next year

By 

Maya Taylor

Thursday, July 22, 2021 10:59

6 Covid-19 vaccine importers have been asked to prepare purchase plans for next year, which should factor in virus mutations. The Public Health Ministry made the request at a meeting with AstraZeneca Thailand, Pfizer Thailand, Zuellig Pharma, Janssen-Cilag, Biogenetech, and the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation.

According to a Nation Thailand report, Opas Karnkawinpong from the Department of Disease Control says an additional 120 million vaccine doses will be purchased next year, including different types such as inactivated vaccines, viral vector, and mRNA vaccines. Opas says progress has been made in the areas of vaccine types, development, production, and delivery timelines.

"Each party will apply information received during the meeting and report on their progress periodically."

It's understood a locally-produced inactivated vaccine has passed the first phase of human trials, with Opas saying it will play an important role in helping the country overcome future virus mutations. He says the government will also seek to purchase other types of vaccines at a later stage, including protein-based sub-unit vaccines.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand