McKinsey predicts recovery by 2024

Thai tourism revenue may recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, though attracting "quality" travellers from new source markets is essential for a pronounced rebound, according to new research by McKinsey and Company.

"Projections are always challenging from the evolving nature of the pandemic, however, international visits and spending in Thailand could recover by 2024, assuming some virus recurrence, slow long-term growth, muted world recovery, and minimal changes to global tourism strategies," said Steve Saxon, partner at McKinsey & Company's Shenzhen office and leader of the firm's travel practice in Asia.

International travellers are predicted to generate US$68 billion by 2024, compared to $62 billion in 2019, if Thailand can maintain a low infection rate, according to the latest report "Reimagining travel: Thailand tourism after the Covid-19 pandemic".

Overall tourism receipts from both international and domestic markets are forecast at $111 billion in 2024 from $96 billion in 2019.

Mr Saxon said Thai tourism can develop new tourism sources to compensate for the lack of Chinese visitors by focusing on markets where travel demand recovers more rapidly.

The US, the UK, Germany and Japan are among the top countries after Thailand's reopening on Nov 1. Meanwhile, India is also considered a potential market for Thailand.

The industry has to promote different travel offerings such as ecotourism and cultural tourism as well as expanding to new lesser-known destinations like Chiang Rai, Ratchaburi and Loei to attract the mass-affluent segment, especially younger tourists who prioritise travel experiences.

He said operators have to balance quality and quantity of tourists as supply in the country still needs to be fulfilled, while the domestic market remains vital to sustain the industry.

In addition, operators have to stay agile in order to keep up with rapid changes in Covid-related measures in each country.

After the country's reopening, the key lesson learned is that all sectors can jointly work together to support tourism recovery by forming partnerships across the ecosystem, said Pipavin Sodprasert, partner at McKinsey & Company's Bangkok office.

Apart from the government's stimulus and guidelines on health and safety policies, medium-term support for small and medium-sized enterprises on digitalisation, such as online travel services and digital marketing in the form of a one-stop tourism platform can maximise benefits for the sector.

She said data collected from 30 million users of "We Travel Together", a hotel subsidy scheme, has to be effectively analysed to offer personalised tourism products that meet locals' demand and allow stakeholders to connect with the information through an integrated digital ecosystem.

Highlights:

• 214 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Chonburi today

• 164 people recovered and were released from medical care

• Two new deaths

The Chonburi Department of Public Health announced 214 new and confirmed cases of Covid-19 today with two new deaths, December 28th.

This makes a total of 112,220 cases of Covid-19 in the current round of infections, with 1,998 people still under medical care/supervision, and with a total of 790 recorded deaths in Chonburi since the start of this recent round of infections in early April.

Additionally, 164 people were also released and recovered yesterday in Chonburi. 109,432 people in total have now been released from medical care and recovered in Chonburi since this current wave of Covid-19 began.

Two people were listed as being in serious condition in Chonburi currently, either on a ventilator or pneumonia, both had completed two doses of a Covid -19 vaccine.

The two new deaths were at the average age of 75. They both had personal health problems and were not vaccinated.

In total, 1,906,690 people in Pattaya and Chonburi have received their first dose of a Covid -19 vaccine which is 81.86 percent of the total Chonburi population. Of those, 297,720 have received their first dose and are what the Thai government calls 608 groups (elders, have chronic health problems, and pregnant) which is 80.84 percent of those in these risk groups in Chonburi.

The details on the cases are as follows:

1. Work and stayed in Rayong, transferred from other provinces for medical care, 14 cases
2. Cluster, Honda Lock Thai company in Mueang Chonburi, 13 cases
3. Cluster, Siripriboon Patanakarn company in Banglamung, 4 cases
4. Cluster, Sunglow Developers company in Si Racha, 3 cases
5. Cluster Fujisu General company in Si Racha, 3 cases
6. Risky occupations meeting many people, 7 cases
7. 2 medical staffers
8. Back from other provinces in Bangkok – 1 case, Chiang Mai – 1 case and Lopburi – 1 case
9. Close contacts from previously confirmed cases in families – 48 cases, in workplaces – 35 cases, close personal contacts – 5 cases, and joined a party – 2 cases
10. Close contacts of a confirmed patient (under investigation), 18 cases
11. 57 cases cases close contacts of a confirmed patient (under investigation)