Thailand News - Corona - By Ola J. - Palmtree

With coronavirus cases hitting a record Thursday and surging toward 100,000 or more cases a day by April, this year's Songkran again will prove a serious risk to Thailand's rural elderly population.

After some speculation that the government might prohibit interprovincial travel during the Thai New Year April 13-17, officials on Tuesday agreed to allow the holiday to take place, although health and safety restrictions on festivities won't be decided until Friday.

Spokesman Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana said Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha strongly advised anyone attending water-throwing celebrations – if they are allowed – to get their booster vaccinations and take an antigen test both before and after traveling.

The premier also recommended that vulnerable groups, such as those aged 60 and older, people with underlying illnesses, and pregnant women, get fully vaccinated before the festival.

Beset by pandemic fatigue and emboldened by the milder effects of the omicron coronavirus variant, Thailand's younger generations may no longer care if they are the next superspreader or a new cluster member. But that attitude will put their older relatives at risk during Songkran.

Older people are at a higher risk of developing severe illness owing to physiological changes associated with aging and possible underlying health issues. Vaccination rates among senior citizens also are relatively low, especially in rural provinces.

According to the Department of Disease Control, confirmed daily infections around Songkran may reach 100,000 a day, and seniors have the most significant mortality risk from this virus. Cases, including results from antigen tests, topped 72,000 today.

Thai seniors less vaccinated

The most important thing to understand is that COVID-19 mortality rates are influenced by vaccination status. Because unvaccinated individuals are more likely to die, mortality rates by vaccination status give a more realistic picture than the absolute number of deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

And 2.2 million Thai seniors remain unvaccinated.

According to the Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration, 75% (928 patients) of Covid-19 deaths were adults aged 60 and above in the first two months of 2022. 60% (557 patients) of those elders were not immunized.

About 8% had already gotten their first shots (77 patients), while 29% had already received their second injections (271 patients). The remaining 2% got booster jabs (23 patients).

Vaccinate, then celebrate

Giving seniors a second injection reduces the risk of infection-related death by up to six times. The rate offered by the booster injection is considerably better, as the booster dosage reduces the mortality risk by up to 41 times. A senior who gets an extra dose is 68% less likely to get a viral infection and 96% less likely to get a severe illness, be in the hospital, or die from the virus.

Seniors who have not been vaccinated should do so as soon as possible. Those who have already received the first jab should keep their appointments for the second doses, and those who had their second shots three months ago should register to get their boosters.

As it takes about a month for the vaccine to properly build the body's immunity, now is the ideal time to give the seniors their booster doses before relatives come to visit them during Songkran, when the transmission of the virus is expected to rise due to people traveling.

Vaccine isn't a cure

Although vaccines are reasonably effective, keep in mind that they are not perfect. They certainly make individuals immune, but they do not make people invincible.

Covid-19 vaccine is a protection, not a license to do anything. Wearing masks, hand-washing, and proper social distancing are other necessary steps to minimize risk and give families more confidence to participate in Songkran activities.

Nonetheless, people should relish the anticipation of the day when they and their loved ones will be vaccinated because the risks of being together will be extremely low, and the benefits to mental health will be enormous.

The nasty consequences of the Ukrainian war are threatening several sectors of the Thai economy. International tourism as a whole is threatened by the Russian invasion which is dissuading many travellers from traditional markets, notably Europe. The Manchester-based consortium Exotica said, "Thailand is not a pull right now. Air fares are bound to rise and people don't like to be on the other wide of the world when there's real trouble in Europe."



Then there's the pandemic. American authorities are strongly advocating their nationals avoid Thailand right now because of the high infection rates, even though most Omicron cases here are domestic-borne and minor in symptoms. The Washington-based Center for Disease Control and Prevention added Thailand to its red-list this week, although the majority of the world's countries – 136 at the last count – are also included.

Although Thailand has not sanctioned Russia and direct trade between the two countries is low (about one percent of Thailand's imports and exports combined), Russian consumers are cutting back on luxuries such as Thai fresh fruit and frozen seafood. Air transport between Thailand and Russia has almost ceased with regular flights regularly cancelled. With the international oil price hovering around US$140 and diesel about to burst the 30 baht per liter barrier, inflation and supply chain crunches are inevitable.

Peyton Enloe, a Bangkok-based exporter, said, "Flying fresh farm produce to both Russia and Europe depends on speed and reliable connections. Aeroflot has been banned from most European countries already." He added that the rising cost of fuel was already creating difficulties as prices to wholesalers and retailers rose.

Thailand's Ministry of Commerce has announced that inflation has now reached 5.28 percent which is a 13 years high and well above forecasts. Chaichan Chareonsuk, chair of the National Shippers Council, told Al Jazeera, "The geopolitical situation, global inflation, freight costs and the pandemic are all very worrying." 2022 is not looking good for Thailand.