Concern for baht and financial liquidity. Concern for the Thai baht and liquidity if Thailand does not move swiftly to raise interest rates- Thai Examiner

Concern for the Thai baht and liquidity if Thailand does not move swiftly to raise interest rates

Joseph O' Connor

Some analysts in the United States suggest that interest rates there could reach 2.7% to 3% by the end of 2022 leading to a wider divergence between interest rates stateside and in Thailand where even if the central bank does raise rates from August, most economists predict that they will only reach 1% by the end of the year, leaving a wider spread, thus encouraging capital flight and further depreciation of the baht.

There is rising concern that Thailand's economy may be caught between rising inflation on one hand which has seen consumer confidence plummet in May and an extended flight of capital out of the country which, despite indicators this week that the Bank of Thailand will begin raising interest rates in from August, may, in fact, be exacerbated further by a more hawkish Federal Reserve in the United States and a widening spread between Thai bank interest rates and not only those stateside but also those within Southeast Asia where countries such as Malaysia have higher rates. This could lead to further depreciation of the baht which has, so far this year, lost 15% of its value against the dollar.

On Monday last, before Wednesday's meeting of the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee, the Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith expressed a wish to see Thailand maintain a low-interest-rate environment to encourage the economic recovery. The bank maintained rates at a historic low of 0.5% but concerns are rising of a wider divergence between interest rates in the United States and the kingdom if the Federal Reserve follows through on hawkish signals of a 50 basis point rise in June, July and September. This new challenge comes as Thailand has been experiencing a flight of capital since August 2021. Underlying problems and an unbalanced economy are also contributing to a sluggish economic recovery with the kingdom lagging behind its peers.

The Bank of Thailand at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting this week signalled strongly that it is moving towards a more hawkish monetary policy stance as the seven committee members voted 4-3 to maintain the historically low baseline interest rate at 0.5%.

It comes with comments, prior to the meeting, from the Prime Minister Prayut Chan ocha and the Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, calling on the bank not to move precipitously with a rise in interest rates which could impede an ongoing but still very sluggish economic recovery but which is becoming a necessity also to contain inflation which reached a 14 year high in May when it hit 7.1%.

Finance Minister, before Wednesday's meeting, on Monday, encouraged the central bank to preserve a low-interest-rate environment to spur recovery

The Finance Minister Mr Arkhom was unequivocal on Monday when he said that the central bank, whose primary mission is to preserve financial stability, should aim for a low-interest-rate environment while the recovery is still gaining traction against headwinds thrown at it by external factors, particularly the Russian Ukraine war.

In its statement after the meeting, the Bank of Thailand indicated the anticipated return of Thailand's key foreign tourism industry at critically high volumes later in the year, may allow it to move on interest rate hikes to begin taming inflation. 

Only 1.1 million visitors in the first four months of 2022 with some fears the economy could slide backwards in Qtr 2 with slower export growth

There are also real fears that the economy may contract in the second quarter of 2022 which emphasises the lacklustre nature of the current recovery which is increasingly dependent on a buoyant performance in the second half of the year.

Rising inflation this year in Thailand which one bank, this week, projected to be 6.6% at the end of the year with a tapering off in the last quarter, is certain to wipe out any potential GDP gain the country may stand to achieve in 2022. 

At Wednesday's meeting, the committee suggested that the Thai economy should grow at a rate of approximately 3.3% this year based on a strong and growing performance from the foreign tourism sector even as manufacturing and export growth which accounts for 65% of the Thai economy, is stalling.

Export growth impeded by deteriorating conditions within the world economy and ongoing Ukraine war

This is being caused by geopolitical instability and plunging economic growth rates worldwide but is also being exacerbated by strict Chinese pandemic lockdown measures and a wipeout of Thai exports to Russia which plunged by nearly 80% in March and April according to Mr Kittinan Yingcharoen, the boss of the Office of Overseas Trade Promotion stationed in Moscow.

Thailand's automobile exports to Russia have all but been wiped out with a 97.59% contraction rate.

Analysts such as Nomura Bank and Goldman Sachs are strongly predicting that from August this year, the Bank of Thailand will begin to raise interest rates with Goldman Sachs predicting a significant rise of 200 basis points by the third quarter of 2023 while other institutions and economists are predicting that interests rates will have risen to 1% by the end of 2022.

Lowest consumer confidence level in nine months

On Thursday, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce announced that the Thai Consumer Index had again fallen to a ninth-month low in May as ordinary people grappled with rising prices including higher energy and food costs.

The index fell from 40.7 in April to 40.2 in May.

Thailand is caught between a deteriorating world economy, rising interest rates in the United States and a surge in oil prices which the government is trying to alleviate with an increasingly limited and constrained budget.

Currently, the baht is trading at ฿34.50 to the US dollar showing a 15% fall from the end of 2021 and even though interest rates are expected to rise in August when the Monetary Policy Committee next meets.

Hawkish Federal Reserve has plans to aggressively tackle US inflation in the months ahead which will directly impact Thailand's liquidity and the baht

There is concern that the Federal Reserve in the United States may continue to raise interest rates as it has signalled an aggressive intent to tackle inflation in America which is rising at a higher rate than in Thailand.

The current consensus among economists is that Thailand will have an interest rate of 1% by the end of the year while the United States which currently has an interest rate of 0.75% to 1%, is forecasted to rise to between 2.75% to 3% by the end of 2022.

Interest rate hikes of 50 basis points each expected this month and in July with another in September

Malaysia's central bank raised its interest rate in mid-May bringing rates there to 2% compared to Thailand's rate of 0.5%.

This may spell trouble for Thailand, the value of the baht and hence inflation, caused by an increased impetus towards capital flight westwards which has also created an extremely tight liquidity situation throughout the financial system and Thai economy.

In order to stop the flight of capital out of Thailand, interest rates in the kingdom should ideally be slightly higher than those in the United States as traditionally has been the case.

Thailand is protected by an unusually high level of foreign exchange reserves which at the beginning of May stood at $228 billion.

The world has already seen the potential for catastrophe caused by foreign capital flight and a shortage of foreign exchange reserves in recent months in Sri Lanka and Nepal and even in Turkey where a determination not to raise interest rates by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, described by many analysts as 'misguided', has seen the lira lose 79% of its value over the last five years with inflation in May reaching 73.5% with an economy suffering sluggish growth.

Rising rates with chronic household debt levels

It is clear that an urgent adjustment of the country's monetary policy is needed given the inflationary pressures generated by the war in Ukraine and the increasingly hawkish monetary policy in the United States.

Thailand's economy is still well below GDP levels seen in 2019 and is showing signs of weakness compared to its peers in Southeast Asia as it struggles to make a recovery.

Crisis greater than the Financial Crisis of 1997 with household and private sector debt at worrying levels

Many analysts are less concerned about the negative impact of higher borrowing costs on an economy which is highly leveraged with record levels of household debt than the impact of the continued flight of capital out of the country first noticed in August 2021.

Unbalanced economy with 70% of Thailand's workers only accounting for 1% of country's export industry

A key problem for Thailand since its economy, already laden with chronic internal problems, but which also began to be challenged by external factors, first in 2019 with the growth of US-Chinese tensions and then the COVID-19 crisis, has been its unbalanced nature.

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith is said to be extremely concerned about a potential for interest rate hikes of 2% over the next year on large Thai manufacturers and exporters with fears that rising borrowing costs will impede investment and, in turn, lead to firms losing competitiveness and profitability.

On the other hand, the flight of capital out of Thailand has, since the end of last year, seen a tightening of liquidity which is impacting smaller firms and making it difficult for them to borrow while also impacting local consumers who are the lifeblood of such concerns.

Thailand has 3.1 million small enterprises which only contribute to 1% of Thailand's exports but which, at the same time, employ 12 million people or 70% of the 17 million people who are legally recorded as employed in the country.

A combination of heightened liquidity and higher inflation is eroding confidence and domestic consumer spending.

Rebound expected in foreign tourism numbers is the key hope for Thailand's economic growth prospects

Thai planners can only hope for a stronger than expected rebound in foreign tourism, a continued ability of Thai exporters to find markets and some resolution to the inflationary pressure due to the war in Ukraine driving up the price of oil and the cost of food.

One Bangkok-based economist, Mr Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, of Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group has warned that heightened inflation is not only wiping out the purchasing power of consumers but also leading to rising costs for the country's export concerns and thwarting private investment plans.

Thailand, while a net exporter of food, is also very dependent on foodstuff imports as well as oil, with the rising costs of crude impacting its current account while the rising price of external foodstuffs is also driving inflation.

'Even though Thailand is a food exporting country, the country has a very high proportion of energy and food consumption in the consumer basket compared with other countries,' Mr Pipat pointed out. 'The effect from inflation on the population may be greater, especially on low-income people that consume higher amounts of food and energy than rich people.'

CCSA MEETING. Big week coming up !! Nightlife closing times, revised mask requirements and more land border re-openings. Thailand’s Covid taskforce are meeting this week to consider three proposals made from around various Ministries and industry stakeholders. It’s going to be a pivotal week for the CCSA. Announcements are expected by this Friday. | Thaiger

Nightlife closing times, revised mask requirements and more land border re-openings

By 

Tim Newton

Sunday, June 12, 2022 16:24

Thailand's Covid taskforce are meeting this week to consider three proposals made from around various Ministries and industry stakeholders. It's going to be a pivotal week for the CCSA. Announcements are expected by this Friday.

One of them is to remove the requirement to wear face masks in public, although it is widely considered that, even if this concession is made, masks will still be required in some circumstances where crowds gather.

Another proposal is to allow Thailand's entertainment venues to close at 2am, instead of the official closing time of midnight.

A spokesperson has said that the CCSA will be convening during the week to evaluate the proposals and assess the current Covid situation around Thailand.

On that note there has been a steady trend downwards in regards to cases, despite the public health minister predicting that cases would have zoomed back up to over 10,000 per day at this stage because of the June 1 'official' reopening of Thailand's nightlife across 30 provinces (the blue and yellow zones)

Meanwhile, the Department of Health has been drawing up new guidelines for the wearing of face-masks, especially working out 'where' they consider it will be safe to remove them.

Given the trend since April 1 of steadily dropping numbers, whilst at the same time the country has been easing restrictions and removing testing and other restrictions on foreign arrivals, it's predicted that there will be an easing of some face-mask wearing requirements this week.

Whilst restating the aim of the CCSA is to "help people resume normality as soon as possible" the spokesperson was keen to point out the the situation in Thai night entertainment venues was heading in the right direction.

"We found the situation to be under control after allowing bars, pubs, karaoke joints and massage parlours to reopen since June 1."

The government is also looking to re-open more of Thailand's land border checkpoints this week as well.

But the spokesperson also pushed the line that the Thai government is hoping more people will line up for a booster Covid vaccine to maintain the rate of hospitalisations and deaths from Covid-19 as low as possible.

However there has been less chatter about the Thailand Pass, the digital online gateway for all foreign visitors to enter Thailand at this time. Whilst the government continues to demand foreign travellers have a US$10,000 health insurance package as a condition of entry, it is likely that the Thailand Pass will remain. The Thailand Pass also requires vaccinated travellers to upload their Covid vaccination information at this time.

Decisions about face masks, more border checkpoint re-openings, the future of the Thailand Pass and any changes to the closing times of Thailand's venues, will be made on or before Friday this week.

Thailand's daily PCR-tested and confirmed Covid infections have dropped dramatically since April 1 this when the Covid Omicron spike hit its peak at over 28,000 cases. Case number have been 3,185 for 10 days now. Sunday's report registered 2,474 new infections and 20 Covid-related deaths.

The steep drop in new infections, and lack of new spikes since restrictions have been eased in recent months, should give the CCSA confidence to make the next raft of concessions this week.

Masks here to stay at Pattaya-Nongprue Kindergarten. If the government drops its hated face-mask mandate, Nongprue Kindergarten will impose its own, Principal Kittisak Sirilert said. Kittisak believes masks are good prevention against the spread of Covid-19, particularly among very young children, few of whom have been vaccinated against the coronavirus. He said less than half the school’s students have not had even one jab.- Pattaya Mail

Masks here to stay at Pattaya-Nongprue Kindergarten

Pattaya MailJune 12, 2022

Nongprue Kindergarten Principal Kittisak Sirilert said believes masks are good prevention against the spread of Covid-19, particularly among very young children.

If the government drops its hated face-mask mandate, Nongprue Kindergarten will impose its own, Principal Kittisak Sirilert said.

Kittisak believes masks are good prevention against the spread of Covid-19, particularly among very young children, few of whom have been vaccinated against the coronavirus. He said less than half the school's students have not had even one jab.
He said the school has tried to educate parents on the benefits of vaccination, but with little success, as parents are worried either about side effects or the children are too young.

He said if the government drops its mask mandate, the school will ask students to still mask up and for parents to support the decision.

🔴 #COVID19 update on Sunday ⬇️ 2,474 new cases ⬇️ 20 deaths ⬇️ 22,330 active cases ⬆️ 659 serious cases. TNR / Richard Barrow



Why are Thailand’s roads among the deadliest in the world? Bangkok Jack

Why are Thailand's roads among the deadliest in the world?

June 11, 2022

Kid with a pan on his head instead of a helmet amuses Thailand - Photo credit: Tanit Bussabong

The Thai woman was riding on a motorcycle on her way to work when a pickup truck sideswiped her on a rural stretch of asphalt in northeastern Thailand. The truck's driver was an off-duty police officer. He was drunk.

Orathai Chanhom, the motorcyclist, was catapulted off her bike and killed almost instantly in the crash.

The officer who struck her still has his police job. His driver's licence was not taken away. A court declined to sentence him to prison.

In Thailand, one of the world's most unequal societies, even its roads have a rigid hierarchy, with the poor far more likely to be killed in accidents than the well-off and well-connected.

And there are many deaths: Thailand had the world's second-highest rate of road fatalities per capita, surpassed only by war-afflicted, lawless Libya, according to a 2015 report from the World Health Organisation (WHO).

When it comes to per-capita motorcycle deaths, the country is number one.

The government vowed at a United Nations forum in 2015 to halve the number of road traffic deaths by 2020.

With less than one year to go before the deadline, however, Thailand is a long way from fulfilling that promise, its roads still ranking among the world's 10 most dangerous, with more than 20,000 preventable fatalities a year.

The country has seen a small dip in road deaths since 2015, and Thailand has in place many of the necessary laws to make its roads safer.

But what the government has not addressed is the country's vast gap in wealth, which is the core issue that not only makes its roads so deadly, but has also split the country into two bitterly divided political camps: Thailand's haves and have-nots.

Thailand, named the most unequal country of the 40 major economies surveyed last year by Credit Suisse, has what might be the world's most toxic combination for traffic safety.

Unlike poorer countries, its roads are well paved and made for speed, and the cars driven by the rich and its growing middle class tend to be new and fast.

But many Thai families can only afford a single scooter or motorcycle, and high-quality helmets are a luxury for many, whatever the law says about them being mandatory to wear.

In accidents on the country's crowded roads, it's a devastating mismatch when an air-conditioned SUV collides with a two-wheeler, scattering the detritus of death across the asphalt.

And the aftermath of such accidents are a common, macabre sight on Thai thoroughfares: a shredded tyre, a mangled frame of steel, a bloody plastic flip-flop.

Motorcycle accidents can involve a number of fatalities. Because public transportation is limited outside the big cities, it's not uncommon to see a couple of adults – and even a child or two crammed between them – balanced on a single bike.

Only 12 per cent of Thailand's road traffic deaths involved occupants of cars or other light vehicles, according to the 2018 WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety.

Most of the dead were motorcyclists – or pedestrians.

In many Thai towns, there are few wide, easily usable pavements because, critics say, they are not a priority for the rich and influential, who prefer not to walk in Thailand's oppressive heat.

When there are wide footpaths, they often overflow with street stalls and even motorcycle traffic, pushing people into the roads.

The country's economic disparity is not the only reason Thailand's road deaths are not distributed equally. Justice, too, is handed out unevenly.

For the super rich, or those in positions of authority, the rules of the road may not apply at all.

They know they can speed with impunity and drink heavily before getting behind the wheel, with little fear of the consequences.

In 2012, a young man in a Ferrari – the heir to the Red Bull energy drink fortune – allegedly ploughed into a policeman, dragging him to his death.

The driver, Vorayuth Yoovidhya, was intoxicated, according to a test. Seven years later, he has never been prosecuted.

"What is clear in Thailand is that the roads are not safe for all users," says Evelyn Murphy, who specialises in unintentional injury prevention at the WHO.

"Whether it's cars or motorcycles or pedestrians, the safety of all users of roads must be considered, regardless of income level."

Weak enforcement, compounded by corruption

Speeding, drunken driving and failing to wear proper helmets are the primary causes of traffic deaths in the country, Thai officials say.

While the laws are there to combat each of those factors, enforcement is not.

Wearing helmets is required on two-wheelers, but fines are rarely issued, unless the police need to meet a specific quota during a crackdown period.

Unaccustomed to checkpoints or sirens, speeders or other rule-breakers may not even pull over when caught.

"It's hard to convince people to stop for us when they are not used to stopping," says Jirasunt Kaewsaengeak, the deputy commissioner of the Bangkok Metropolitan Police.

Then, there is corruption. The rich or well-connected know a bribe can often see them on their way if they are nabbed breaking traffic laws.

Bangkok's 3,000 traffic police make an average of £500 a month for working in broiling heat, monsoonal downpours and suffocating smog, which can make even small payoffs highly appealing, and effective.

Twice a year, during the Thai new year in April and the western new year in January, campaigns warn against drunken driving, complete with billboards of gory crashes.

Arrests skyrocket during these periods, but then quickly fall off again.

"If you eat vegetables twice a year and only eat ice cream for the rest of the year, your doctor will think you are crazy," says Tairjing Siriphanich, the secretary-general of the Don't Drive Drunk Foundation of Thailand. "But that's what we are doing with road safety."

A 'sabai sabai' mindset

When asked why so many people die on Thai roads, officials here ascribe it to a "sabai sabai" culture.

Sabai sabai is one of those untranslatable phrases, but it denotes a kind of relaxed contentment. Sabai sabai is one reason Thailand is a great place for a beach holiday.

But it's not a helpful attitude when building national safety standards.

"If police enforce the law, rather than just give a verbal warning, then Thai people are unhappy, and they complain that it's not sabai sabai," Jirasunt says.

A prime example of the effect of the sabai sabai way of life on traffic safety is the approach to helmets. Many motorcyclists simply don't bother.

"People think air pollution is a threat, but they don't think the same way about drunken driving or wearing helmets," says Tairjing of the Don't Drive Drunk Foundation. "We have failed to make people understand that they can save their own lives."

But the authorities can make a difference: in the districts where police are known to hand out fines, helmets are more common.

The government could also do more to educate Thais about helmets, which are often substandard or worn incorrectly.

"When you see someone who makes the effort to put on a helmet without actually strapping it on, it defeats the whole purpose of wearing it," says Murphy of the WHO. "It shows a lack of understanding of basic safety mechanisms."

Shifting the blame

In 2016, 32.7 out of every 100,000 Thais died on the country's roads, according to the most recent WHO estimates. By comparison, the road fatality rate in the United States was 12.4 that year.

In Indonesia, a less-developed southeast Asian country with more potholed roads, the rate was 12.2. Across most of Europe, it was a single-digit number.

Since the government made its promise to halve road deaths, a vow other countries have also made, Thailand has barely inched upwards, moving from the country with the next-to-worst per-capita death tally to the ninth worst.

"No political party has made this an issue. No leader wants to do anything," Tairjing says. "They just make promises to halve the number of road deaths even though they know it's impossible. Maybe they think we'll forget about the promises they made."

The question of who is at fault for Thailand's lack of progress draws a lot of finger pointing by Thai officials.

Chayatan Phromsorn, the deputy director-general of the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, the agency that pledged to the United Nations to halve the number of road deaths, said he was not familiar with the document that detailed Thailand's promise. (That English-language document was never made available online in Thai script.)

The official who presented the paper to the United Nations in 2015 said she had done so only because her colleague was unable to attend the conference.

In turn, that colleague, Usanisa Jikyong, said in an email that her office "is not responsible for a road safety initiative in the national level".

Usanisa suggested that another government agency, the department of disaster prevention and mitigation at the Ministry of Interior, was in charge of such matters.

But Chayabol Thitisak, the department's director general, shifted responsibility back to Usanisa's office.

Officials at both agencies said that the blame lay primarily with the police.

"The big factor is law enforcement," Chayabol said. "We have to make people realise that by violating the law they will face severe consequences."

But the police refuse to accept fault.

"As police, there are many things we cannot do," Jirasunt says. "We cannot build more roads and public transportation. We cannot change the number of cars on the road. We cannot change the attitudes of people so they have discipline."

The high human cost

The World Bank estimated in a 2018 study that Thailand could lift its per-capita gross domestic product by 22 per cent by the year 2038 if it successfully halved its traffic fatalities.

Despite that economic upside, the government – led by a retired military general since a 2014 coup – has done little to address the wealth gap that's at the core of Thailand's problem with road deaths.

The country has made a few road-safety improvements. Schools have added road-safety lessons to their curriculums, and there has been some progress in setting new vehicle safety standards.

The numbers do show a slight improvement: road deaths were 7 per cent lower in 2018, with 22,491 deaths compared with 24,237 in 2015.

While the enormous macroeconomic cost of all these road deaths can be measured, what can't be given a money figure is the personal toll inflicted on individuals by the inequality and impunity that menaces Thailand's roads.

The family of Orathai, the killed motorcyclist, has no lawyer to pursue a civil claim. It did not appeal the decision not to jail the officer. There is no further legal action to take.

"In Thailand, the law does not matter," says Chularat, her daughter. "People like us, how can we change anything? Even if we die for no reason, our lives are worthless."

For the poor, Thailand's roads are unsafe at any speed.

Tourists baffled by new Thai laws on cell phones and marijuana use. Thai laws are famous for being vague on details. Nor does enforcement always follow through Thus, prostitution in Thailand has been illegal since 1960 which often comes as a surprise to consenting adults in private or devotees of the back room in massage parlors. However, the latest laws on both personal privacy and the use of cannabis are causing even lawyers to scratch their heads.- Pattaya Mail

Tourists baffled by new Thai laws on cell phones and marijuana use

Barry KenyonJune 11, 2022

Many visitors (not to mention Thais) are seeking clarification about new laws concerning personal conduct.

Thai laws are famous for being vague on details. Nor does enforcement always follow through Thus, prostitution in Thailand has been illegal since 1960 which often comes as a surprise to consenting adults in private or devotees of the back room in massage parlors. However, the latest laws on both personal privacy and the use of cannabis are causing even lawyers to scratch their heads.

The new law on marijuana use and abuse came into force this month, largely designed to allow Thai citizens to grow the plant for medical and agricultural benefits. And to make a profit provided they register. But western tourists have been turning up at the Pattaya tourist office to try and find out if smoking pot is now allowed. They have been told that recreational use is still illegal, but that no action is likely if smoked in "your own home".

On penalties, the new law specifies a three months jail sentence and/or a fine of 25,000 baht (around US$800) for use of marijuana extracts containing more than 0.2% of THC, the chemical that makes you high. John Lees, a tourist from Manchester, asked if it was safe to smoke pot in your hotel room. Hard to say, but the advice from the Pattaya lawyers association is to steer clear for now. "Questions could be asked by police about where the stuff came from, whilst a party in the room is different from being alone."

There is also much confusion about the personal data protection act which came into force at the beginning of the month. The main purpose is to protect individuals against commercial exploitation or fraud, but the loopholes and ambiguities are many. Thus a spokesman for the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society warns people, Thai or foreign, not to photograph or film others and then post the material on social media. The actual context was pictures or film of a criminal act, but the wider implications are also a blur.

Already, a middle-aged Thai woman is suing a media outlet (not this one) for publishing a photo of her in a skimpy gogo costume which leaves little to the imagination. She claims the picture caused her embarrassment and discredit. Concerns about the literal meaning of the legislation have even spread to Thai hospitals where some patients are being asked to sign a detailed declaration that the company can hold and use personal data for professional and even marketing purposes.

Lawyers say that it will take time for the new laws to be digestible. The pressures to legalize smoking pot are now well-nigh unstoppable and many commentators believe that cannabis sandboxes (reserved areas) will be the first step within a year. As regards personal data, the police will, in criminal cases, have some discretion which to send to the public prosecutor's office. Civil cases will take years to resolve in a notoriously slow-moving bureaucracy. To misquote Bette Davis, "Hold on to your hats, this could be a bumpy ride."

Proposal to ease visa rules put forward. TAT, tourism operators agree to present united front to CCSA. Bangkok Post

Proposal to ease visa rules put forward

International visitors proceed to screening upon arrival at Suvarnabhumi airport.

Tourism operators have reached an agreement with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to propose a visa fee exemption for international arrivals and an eligibility extension for visitors from nations not requiring a visa to enter the country from 30 to 45 days during the second half of this year.

A joint meeting between the TAT and more than 100 representatives from 10 tourism associations yesterday ended with five proposals that are expected to be presented to the subcommittee of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) next week.

"All tourists should have been treated on an equal basis. If possible, we should also provide a fee waiver for multiple entry to allow them to visit neighbouring countries during the same trip," said Bhummikitti Ruktaengam, president of the Phuket Tourist Association.

"This could be a good opportunity for us to lead the reopening of CLMV [Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam]."

At present, Thailand grants a visa exemption to 56 countries whose citizens don't have to apply for a visa or pay the 1,000-baht fee, but the stay is limited to 30 days.

However, most countries, including potential markets such as India, still require visitors to apply for a visa and pay an application fee for a stay of no more than 60 days.

The visa-on-arrival (VOA) option, which is the leading choice among visitors who do not wish to deal with the inconvenience of visiting a Thai consulate, costs 1,500 baht. However, this option only allows a visitor to stay in Thailand for a maximum of 15 days.

The 30-day limit may be insufficient for the current environment as tourists nowadays wish to take longer trips, as seen by the increase in average spending per visitor from 47,000 baht to 77,000 baht, said Yuthasak Supasorn, governor of the TAT.

He said among high-spending tourists the visa fee amount may be insignificant, but if they can save on this cost it would leave them more money to spend while travelling around the country, which would directly stimulate the local economy.

As the government previously extended the right to remain in the country from 30 to 45 days during the period when quarantine was required, if tourism operators want to seek another extension, it should not be an obstacle, said Mr Yuthasak.

"We totally agree with the proposal to waive the visa fee for those who must apply for a visa, in addition to extending the length of stay for both visa-free countries and the VOA," said Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, president of the Thai Hotels Association.

"The longer they stay, the more they can spend more locally."

In addition to visa issues, the private sector also agreed to ask the CCSA to lift restrictions on night entertainment hours by returning to the same practices adopted by each area before the pandemic.

They also support the idea of promoting Thailand as a mask-free destination by revoking the mask mandate in all areas.

Masks can be suggested for congested spaces or indoors. Private operators, such as hotels or restaurants, can make their own decision on whether to require their staff to wear a mask, according to the meeting.

Most representatives also agreed with the Tourism and Sport Ministry's proposal to cancel the Thailand Pass system, meaning the only requirements for visitors to the country would be vaccine certificates and insurance.

Temperature checks at all locations should be halted as experience has shown this measure cannot practically identify those infected with the virus, said the representatives.

🔴 #COVID19 update on Saturday ⬇️ 2,501 new cases ⬆️ 28 deaths ⬇️ 24,112 active cases ⬇️ 639 serious cases. TNR / Richard Barrow

CCSA to consider no mask, 2am closing hours next Friday. “Though the situation in Thailand is improving, CCSA is still concerned as the number of people getting booster shots is low. We, therefore, urge those who have not received a booster to get one as soon as possible to reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death,” Supoj said. The Nation

CCSA to consider no mask, 2am closing hours next Friday

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) will meet next week to consider removing the facemask mandate in public places and allow entertainment venues to close at 2am, chief of the CCSA operation centre Supoj Malaniyom said on Thursday.

He said CCSA requires more time to evaluate the situation and has tasked the Department of Health with drawing up new rules for facemasks, especially marking out areas where people can go without wearing a mask.

"Our aim is to help people resume normality as soon as possible now that Covid-19 is close to becoming endemic," he said. "The same goes for extending operating hours for entertainment venues, as we found the situation to be under control after allowing bars, pubs, karaoke joints and massage parlours to reopen since June 1."

He added that the meeting on June 17 will also consider reopening more border checkpoints.

"Though the situation in Thailand is improving, CCSA is still concerned as the number of people getting booster shots is low. We, therefore, urge those who have not received a booster to get one as soon as possible to reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death," Supoj said.

As of June 9, Thailand had administered 138.36 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines, of which 56.81 million were first jabs covering 81.7 per cent of the population, 52.84 million second jabs covering 76 per cent of the population, and 28.69 million booster shots covering 41.3 per cent of the population.

On Friday, Thailand recorded 2,836 Covid-19 cases and 24 deaths, while 3,518 patients had recovered and were discharged from hospitals. Since January 1, 2022, Thailand has seen a total of 2,256,552 Covid-19 cases.

🔴 #COVID19 update on Friday ⬇️ 2,836 new cases ⬆️ 24 deaths ⬇️ 24,556 active cases ⬇️ 673 serious cases. TNR / Richard Barrow

Thailand Pass could be dropped on July 1 The fate of Thailand Pass will be decided at the next meeting of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, or CCSA, next Friday on June 17. | Thaiger

Thailand Pass could be dropped on July 1

By 

leah

Thursday, June 9, 2022 14:06

'Thailand Pass' could be scrapped completely on July 1, according to Thailand's tourism minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakan. The fate of Thailand Pass will be decided at the next meeting of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, or CCSA, next Friday on June 17.

Thailand Pass was already dropped for Thai nationals on June 1, but foreigners flying into the kingdom are still required to apply for it. Incoming foreign travellers must go onto the Thailand Pass website, upload their passport information, proof of Covid-19 insurance covering US$10,000 and vaccination history to obtain a QR code which they can use when coming through immigration when they arrive.

Unvaccinated tourists must instead upload proof of a negative PCR test result or professional ATK test kit taken by officials when they arrive at the airport.

The Thailand Pass is considered one of the greatest barriers towards the revitalisation of Thailand's tourism industry, and the tourism minister is certain Thailand will reach 30,000 incoming travellers per day if the scheme is scrapped.

Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand ,Yuthasak Supasorn, says that on Friday, the TAT will have a meeting with the private sector to exchange ideas on the topic which will then be presented to the CCSA next Friday.

There is no doubt that without the faff and paperwork surrounding the Thailand Pass, prospective foreign tourists will be more inclined to pack their bags and jet off to Thailand. If no new red tape is implemented in place of Thailand Pass, travellers will be allowed to enter Thailand using only their passports, like the good old days.

SOURCE: Prachachat



🔴 #COVID19 update on Thursday ⬆️ 3,185 new cases ⬆️ 23 deaths ⬇️ 25,262 active cases ⬇️ 678 serious cases. TNR / Richard Barrow



B300 tourism fee postponed. Ministry wants to study land arrivals. The 300-baht tourism fee faces a delay in implementation, beginning in the fourth quarter at the earliest, while the cancellation of Thailand Pass is expected from July 1, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry. Bangkok Post

B300 tourism fee postponed

Passengers at Suvarnabhumi airport go through immigration procedures under the Thailand Pass system, which is expected to be cancelled on July 1. (Photo: Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)

The 300-baht tourism fee faces a delay in implementation, beginning in the fourth quarter at the earliest, while the cancellation of Thailand Pass is expected from July 1, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry.

"Fee collection for tourists arriving by land requires further study, such as determining if the fee amount should be less than 300 baht because the average length of stay for these visitors is only 1-2 nights," said Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, Tourism and Sports Minister.

The tourism fee was previously on the agenda for the cabinet meeting this week, but the ministry withdrew the proposal to sort out fee collection for land entry.

He said the ministry plans to resubmit the proposal to the cabinet within two months, with fee collection beginning 90 days after publication in the Royal Gazette. The starting date for fee collection is likely to be delayed from between August and September to the final quarter this year or the first quarter of 2023 at the latest, said Mr Phiphat.

The ministry also plans to propose on June 17 the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) terminate Thailand Pass registration for international visitors from July 1.

"Eliminating the Thailand Pass system means tourists don't have to buy travel insurance anymore, which should help make travel more convenient," he said.

Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Yuthasak Supasorn said the agency will discuss with tourism operators this Friday about other urgent inquiries before the next CCSA meeting.

The TAT has organised Thailand Travel Mart Plus 2022 in Phuket between June 8-10, the first time in more than two years for the international trade event. The fair is expected to generate tourism revenue of 1.29 billion baht from more than 8,000 business appointments, he said.

The event has 264 local sellers, of which 229 are hoteliers, and 276 international buyers from 45 countries, of which 45.7% are first-time participants.

Mr Yuthasak said the agency prepared a plan to boost the domestic market via the extension of the "We Travel Together" hotel subsidy scheme, which features 1.5 million room nights funded by leftover budget from the fourth phase. The system should be ready for new bookings by July 1 and local tourists can travel from July 8 until Oct 31.

Mr Phiphat said the possibility of a fifth phase with an additional 1.5 million room nights will depend on the Finance Ministry's decision.

No mask mandate cancellation will be announced from Thai government, will be a "natural" process Public Health Minister says - Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul revealed today, June 8th, that no announcement of a mask mandate cancellation, which currently includes even all outside areas, will be made even though Thailand is approaching the endemic disease period. The Phuket Express

No mask mandate cancellation will be announced from Thai government, will be a "natural" process Public Health Minister says

Wednesday, 8 June 2022, 18:16

National –

  Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul revealed today, June 8th, that no announcement of a mask mandate cancellation, which currently includes even all outside areas, will be made even though Thailand is approaching the endemic disease period.

However, it is up to the individual consideration to wear or remove it, depending on the situation and areas they are in, according to Anutin.

The Minister stated during the event "Move on from Covid, live confidently" in Bangkok this morning that the Covid-19 situation in Thailand is likely to improve as can be seen from the steadily decreasing number of infections and fatalities. The daily number of new cases is less than 3,000 and the number of deaths is below 30 daily for three consecutive weeks. This is because people are cooperating with the health ministry's recommendations, according to Anutin.

However, when the disease becomes endemic in Thailand, the severity of the disease will remain at the same level. Redefining Covid-19 as endemic will only make people familiar with it and behave themselves under a mutual understanding of the disease.

Anutin told the press: "The government is trying to return the normal way of life to Thai people as much as possible. Masks can be removed, and many establishments now reopen. No more regulations are our goal. But we have to understand each individual situation as well. If they are in a place where there is a risk, then masks are highly recommended."

"If asked whether the mask mandate will become a law, I'm afraid there might not be such announcement. Whether people want to wear it or take it off, it all depends on individual assessment of the situation with the knowledge we have experienced."

TPN notes that the mask mandate currently falls under Emergency Decree health measures, currently extended until at least the end of July and in effect since early 2020. Presumably, when the emergency decree goes away, the mandate "quietly" will as well, based on the Health Minister's statements today.

Mask mandates have been a major discussion recently in Thailand, for more information please click here.

Anutin: Time to 'move on', declare Covid-19 endemic. Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Wednesday declared his ministry's determination to "move on", to downgrade Covid-19 to an endemic disease and allow people to return to a normal life, but did not give a definite time frame. Bangkok Post

Anutin: Time to 'move on', declare Covid-19 endemic

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, centre, announces it is time to "move on" from Covid-19, during a "meet the press" at the Miracle Grand Convention Hotel in Bangkok on Wednesday. He is flanked by Dr Kiattiphum Wongrajit, left, permanent secretary, and Dr Opas Karnkawinpong, director-general of the Department of Disease Control. (Screenshot)

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Wednesday declared his ministry's determination to "move on", to downgrade Covid-19 to an endemic disease and allow people to return to a normal life, but did not give a definite time frame.

The public health minister was speaking at a "meet the press" session in the presence senior ministry officials, including public health permanent secretary Kiatiphum Wongrajit.

Mr Anutin said the Covid-19 situation had continued to improve with the number of daily infections dropping below 3,000 and fatalities below 30 over the past few weeks, thanks to the people's compliance with the ministry's health guidelines.

The Public Health Ministry had worked hard to educate the people about how to protect themselves against the virus and to persuade them to get vaccinated. 

The ministry was determined to work toward downgrading Covid-19 to an endemic disease, he said, but did not say when that would be.

"To be endemic does not mean that the disease is no longer serious. The disease will be with us throughout our lifetime. We have to know how to stay safe and avoid all infection risks," Mr Anutin said.

"There are still many people who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19, so the campaign for people to get inoculated will continue, to reduce the loss of lives, especially those in high-risk groups. Mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing are still necessary," he said.

He said it was not necessary for the ministry to declare when people can go out without wearing a face mask. He would rather leave that up to individuals to decide at their own discretion.

He read out a message to all health inspectors and personnel, asking them to be fully prepared in terms of medical treatment, hospital beds, medical supplies and equipment and vaccines and show people that they would be properly cared for.

All provincial health offices are to draw up plans to be fully prepared for Covid-19 becoming endemic, and to persuade people to get a booster shot so that they can be sure to stay safe, the message said.

Dr Kiatiphum said the Covid-19 situation had improved and the disease was now in the last stage of declining. The number of infections and deaths in the provinces was decreasing and there were no reports of new outbreaks.

However, the ministry would wait until mid-June and assess the situation after the reopening of bars, pubs and entertainment venues before deciding whether to lower the alert level for Covid-19.

Thailand registered 21 more Covid-19 fatalities and 2,688 new cases during the previous 24 hours, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) announced on Wednesday.

British embassies emphasize they cannot pay expat hospital bills. Following a rush of tragic cases in recent months, the British embassies in Thailand and Cambodia are reminding their nationals that medical bills must be paid by insurers, the patient or willing third parties. They add on their websites that they cannot fund air tickets to get home, no matter how urgent the crisis.- Pattaya Mail

British embassies emphasize they cannot pay expat hospital bills

Barry KenyonJune 8, 2022

John Humphreys, shown here (right) in happier days with Pattaya Mail correspondent Barry Kenyon.

Following a rush of tragic cases in recent months, the British embassies in Thailand and Cambodia are reminding their nationals that medical bills must be paid by insurers, the patient or willing third parties. They add on their websites that they cannot fund air tickets to get home, no matter how urgent the crisis.



A current case illustrates the issue. Retiree John Humphreys, 75, has lived in Thailand and Cambodia for the past 20 years. Originally based in Pattaya, he became well-known as a member of the popular Dolly Sisters, a drag comedy-song act, which helped raise substantial money for aids charities. He was also a volunteer hospital visitor for two embassies.

Last month, he suffered intense pain and was discovered to be seriously ill with cancer-related conditions. He is currently lying uninsured and semi-conscious in a Siem Reap hospital. Initial donations from local friends have now expired and no family members have offered to assist financially. According to an embassy-linked NGO with access to medical records, his condition is terminal. The hospital authorities say they may have to remove him from the premises as foreigners are not eligible for free accommodation.



This case, amongst others, is pushing mandatory insurance for foreigners back into the news. Currently, there are no mandatory insurance requirements for Cambodian visas. Thai authorities presently require proof of Covid-specific insurance, worth at least US$10,000 and valid for a minimum of one month, for all foreign entrants except work permit holders who are covered by the state scheme. But most visas and extensions of stay do not require ongoing or comprehensive medical insurance.

The Thai government has announced that, with effect from 1 September 2022, yearly retirement visas (minimum age 50), issued by embassies abroad, will require US$3 million comprehensive medical insurance, but with a separate facility for self-insurance. These rules will also apply for the annual extension of stay. However, there will still be loopholes as retirees can apply for other visas, such as the Elite card or some 12 month extensions granted by immigration offices, which don't require ongoing insurance.



Travel gurus say the issues are complex. While many competitor Asian countries are downgrading insurance requirements to boost tourist numbers, it is difficult for Thailand to move in the opposite direction. Moreover, whilst some policies currently on the market are good, others are a scam which would never pay up following a claim. A spokesman for Easy Travel, who declined to be identified, said, "Just because someone waves around a policy document doesn't automatically mean it's worth anything.

No pox yet, even in monkeys. No confirmed cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in Thailand yet despite checks having been conducted on over 25,000 monkeys in the kingdom. Bangkok Post





No confirmed cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in Thailand yet despite checks having been conducted on over 25,000 monkeys in the kingdom.

Officials have so far run tests on 25,000 of 50,000 monkeys in 222 locations nationwide but all the results have come back negative, Phattarapol Mee-on, a veterinarian at the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, said yesterday.

Random checks were also carried out on another 97 primates and rodents imported from abroad, he said, adding the results were all negative.

The department is working with the Livestock Department to screen imported animals for monkeypox, Mr Phattarapol said, adding that health exams are being conducted on animals imported by zoo operators over the past year. He said most belong to zoos and animal farms, which understand the situation and are keen to cooperate.

They are also willing to delay future animal imports in line with the measures devised to contain the disease, Mr Phattarapol said.

People who live near any known habitats of monkeys are urged to keep their distance and avoid feeding them, he said.

Primates and other animals can also spread other diseases to humans in addition to monkeypox, he noted. According to the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, more than 500 monkeys were imported last year and 1,000 were brought into Thailand this year. Most came from from monkey farms in Europe and Africa.

Is Thailand likely to see a mass exodus of expats? During the summer months, it gets noticeably quieter in the saunas, bars, restaurants, and on golf courses when they leave. The big question is how many of them will return in 2022? ASEAN NOW

 

by Michael Bridge

Every year from April to June many Europeans leave Thailand to fly back to enjoy the summer months back home.

They leave every year and generally return in October or November for six months like migrating birds heading for the warmer weather.

During the summer months, it gets noticeably quieter in the saunas, bars, restaurants, and on golf courses when they leave. 

The big question is how many of them will return in 2022?

The majority have retired, so they like to return home to see family and friends which is understandable.

However, this year many may decide enough is enough and will stay put.

Most have rented properties in Thailand before, so they do not need to keep paying rent.

Of course, some may have had partners or casual girlfriends here too, but some may fly off with their expat partners, while others will most likely return to stay with families.

However, with rents rising and the cost of living also going up, it is not that cheap to stay here anymore.

Obviously, if they also want to get around the price of fuel means the casual trip to other parts of Thailand can be very costly.

 

And talking about costs, the jump in airfares due to the increase in vacationers, coupled with the fact the planes from Thailand now must avoid Russian airspace, has made buying a ticket quite expensive too.

It is hard to find a return ticket for less than THB30,000 to Europe unless you want two to three stops.

Of course, the other reason these migrators may be reluctant to return is the uncertainty of how they will be received at immigration on arrival.

And as many are elderly will they be able to obtain a suitable insurance package at their age to allow them to stay and at what cost?

The Thai government most likely thinks this group is not helping the economy and the hospitality industry.

That said these expats will spend money here.

 

They go regularly to the supermarkets, pay for electricity, water and the internet, as well eating out at restaurants, drinking in the bars, renting bikes, playing golf, and visiting the massage shops.

And many like to take breaks in other parts of the country.

So, in a small way by making it hard for them to return, the government is missing out on the income they would spend in Thailand.

And with so few tourists around, surely the migrating expat would spend more in six months than a bus load of Indian holidaymakers on a budget trip to Thailand.

🔴 #COVID19 update on Wednesday ⬆️ 2,688 new cases ⬆️ 21 deaths ⬇️ 25,426 active cases ⬇️ 708 serious cases. TNR / Richard Barrow



Thailand’s rankings on the global stage This year, Thailand has been praised for several of its outstanding aspects. This shows that there are many opportunities and inspirations that the public should learn more about. Here is the country’s ranking worldwide, in some important areas. PR Thai Government



🔴 #COVID19 update on Tuesday ⬆️ 2,224 new cases ⬇️ 20 deaths ⬇️ 26,889 active cases ⬇️ 725 serious cases. TNR / Richard Barrow