Tourists arrive at Suvarnabhumi airport. Mrs Marisa says currency depreciation makes the Thai tourism industry more attractive in the post-pandemic period. (Photo: Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)
The weak baht could benefit the tourism industry as foreign purchasing power gains value, though it might not be enough to offset high airfares, according to the Thai Hotels Association (THA).
Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, president of THA, said currency depreciation is just one of many factors helping to make the Thai tourism industry more attractive in the post-pandemic period.
"The weak baht definitely affected the industrial sector as it imports raw materials for production, but it could support the tourism industry as foreign tourists can spend more in the country," she said.
The baht has continued to plunge as the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.75 percentage points this week to battle inflation.
"But whether a weak baht can help offset high transport costs, such as airfares, I'm not quite sure," said Mrs Marisa.
She said the soaring price of air transport has affected the number of international tourists travelling by plane, as this market remains lower than expected the past few months.
Mrs Marisa said positive momentum has built up from borders reopening without the requirement of Thailand Pass registration and the removal of RT-PCR testing.
The latest announcement from the Public Health Ministry, which downgraded Covid-19 to an endemic disease starting from October, should mark a milestone for the country's tourism, she said.
Compared with other countries in Asia, Thailand's relatively fast removal of Covid protocols should accelerate the recovery pace for tourism, said Mrs Marisa.
Unlike the Tom Yum Kung crisis in 1997, when the baht tumbled to more than 50 baht to the dollar, the scenario this year is different in terms of the stakeholders who have been impacted, she said.
"Covid-19 has affected all stakeholders in the tourism sector, from hotel employees to those in the supply chains," said Mrs Marisa.
She said tourism demand during the 1997 crisis remained strong until the supply of rooms was insufficient to cater to all guests, whereas during Covid-19 tourists vanished.
Acting Prime Minister Prawit Wong- suwon insisted the government will not intervene in the Bank of Thailand's monetary policy.
In the last week, there have been several disturbing references by senior political figures on the government side to the possibility of further extra-constitutional outcomes or a coup d'état in the country particularly linked to the return of the Thaksin family to power in Thailand or the use of street protests by members of the public in response to Constitutional Court decisions with a verdict due on the fate of suspended Prime Minister Prayut Chan ocha on September 30thand also a decision on the legal basis for conducting the country's next General Election as the court, last week, unanimously took up a case challenging the electoral laws controversially passed by parliament in August.
The latest National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) poll shows the opposition parties still on target to win the next General Election although, in the last three months, the combined vote of the leading parties has dropped substantially while support for the governing coalition parties has not improved with the Bhumjaithai Party of Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul significantly down to only 2.3% or less than a quarter of what the party polled in 2019. The polls still show the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the public's favourite choice for prime minister after the election which is due to be held between January 2023 and May 7th 2023 at the latest.
A National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) opinion poll published on Sunday, September 25th still shows the daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra as the most popular choice for prime minister after the next General Election. Paetongtarn Shinawatra (centre) maintained the support of 21.6% of respondents down from 25.28% in June with opposition parties off by over 12% since then also. However, the key coalition parties including the Bhumjaithai Party did not seem to have gained from this shift with the party of Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (inset left) commanding only 2.3% support.
The daughter of former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra remains the country's first choice for prime minister after the next election which will take place on May 7th next or possibly up to four months earlier in January 2023 if the House of Representatives is dissolved later this year after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Bangkok.
Earlier, in the summer, the acting Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan and other insiders strongly suggested this as a possibility.
Big winner in his poll is Thai Sang Thai Party leader Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan who is back in play
The latest news from an authoritative National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) poll conducted by telephone with a representative sample of 2,500 interviewees from September 17th last to Wednesday the 21st.
It shows Paetongtarn Shinawatra with the support of 21.6% of those polled, down significantly from 25.28% at the end of June with Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party on 10.56% also down from June's figure of 13.24% while again in third, the currently suspended Prime Minister Prayut Chan ocha who polled 10.12% compared to 11.68% three months ago.
A big winner in the new poll is the former Pheu Thai Party strategist and cabinet minister Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan who came in fourth with 9.12% while her Thai Sang Thai Party also moved up slightly with a vote of 3.04%.
Khunying Sudarat has always either led or been second place in this poll over the past four years up to this year when Paetongtarn Shinawatra emerged as a possible candidate for the Pheu Thai Party.
Loss of nearly 12% for top opposition parties but no gain for leading coalition parties in government
The poll showed the Pheu Thai Party commanding 34.44% of the vote together with 7.56% for the Move Forward Party bringing the two main opposition parties plus Khunying Sudarat's Thai Sang Thai Party to 45.04% which represents a significant drop from June's poll which showed a combined poll tally of 57.2%.
At the same time, it does not appear the main coalition parties in government have gained considerably with the Palang Pracharat Party only polling 5.56%, the Bhumjaithai Party a very disappointing 2.3% and the Democrat Party holding its own at 7.56%.
The poor showing of the Bhumjaithai Party was bettered marginally by its leader Anutin Charnvirakul who polled 2.4% making him the 6th most popular preference for prime minister with only 2.4% of those polled, in a group of 6 potential leaders, all polling in a range between 1.9% and 2.4%.
The result is possibly based on his high profile in the media.
In recent weeks, many analysts have been suggesting an improvement in the fortunes of the Democrat Party, the oldest political party in the kingdom.
The poll will be very disappointing news for acting Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan whose governing party polled poorly with General Prawit failing to make any impact at all.
The government leader failed to make it into the top 13 being counted as an also-ran among a dozen or so other leaders who polled a combined 3.12%.
Latest date for General Election is May 7th 2023
The polls will be seen as encouraging for former Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak who came in 12th with 1.92% although his newly established Future Thai Party (FTI) did not make a substantial showing in the polls
With Thailand entering into a 180-day period of campaigning with strict restrictions imposed by the Election Commission and a provisional date of May 7th set for a General Election providing the House of Representatives is not dissolved by the prime minister before March 23rd next which represents a full term, political parties have moved into overdrive and semi campaigning mode throughout the kingdom.
Minister Anutin's Bhumjaithai Party is gung ho and reported to be targeting 100 seats but may be lucky to obtain over a dozen based on this poll result
On Friday, September 23rd, Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul told a gathering of his Bhumjaithai Party for a dinner in Khon Kaen it was going into fighting mode and that it would not relax until after the next General Election after which it hoped to return victorious to the House of Representatives.
'The Bhumjaithai Party is a down-to-earth party. No matter how much it rains, the party leader will stand by the side of the party. We can all be exposed to the sun, the wind and the rain. The only thing we can do is walk into the council six months from now. We will be in battle mode until we win. We will only be bringing live members of the House of Representatives and we will definitely win,' he assured the party faithful.
The Bhumjaithai Party has played an outsized role in the government since the last election in 2019 when it polled 10.33% of the poll and was returned with 51 seats taking several senior cabinet seats and playing a key role in the now-ended pandemic emergency as well its quest to legalise cannabis or marijuana something it has achieved albeit under still controversial circumstances.
The party is facing headwinds in southern Thailand for its stance on cannabis while the latest polls appear to show that talk of 100 seats in the next House of Representatives may be well off the mark with the party being lucky to possibly obtain a dozen seats based on its current poll support.
Fate of voting laws passed controversially by parliament likely to be a decisive factor in who wins the next General Election as top court takes up case
The key thing to watch now is the fate of the new voting laws controversially passed by the House of Representatives based on the draft bill in August due to a lack of quorum on a key issue.
The law passed by a parliamentary procedure is based on a two-ballot General Election poll, one for 400 constituency seats and one for 100 party list seats based on a quota system created by a divisor of 100 on the national vote.
An alternative to this using a divisor of 500 which would have had the same effects as the one-ballot poll method used in the last election was defeated by the move in August although such a provision had been voted through the month before.
Basis for next election may be governed by decree leaving the General Election result also open to Constitutional Court review if law is not confirmed
Last week, on Wednesday, September 21st the Constitutional Court voted unanimously to take up a case opposing the organic voting laws passed.
This objection was submitted by 105 MPs of smaller parties in parliament with the judges giving 15 days for interested parties to supply information for consideration by the court on the matter.
If the bill passed by parliament is found to be unconstitutional it can be sent back to the Electoral Commission and ultimately parliament for redrafting.
However, political observers are sceptical about whether a new bill can be agreed upon in time leaving the practical basis for the next General Election unclear.
One option being suggested is that a decision by the cabinet or executive degree would be promulgated. This is, of course, something which could later be questioned in another court challenge.
Disturbing references being made to the possibility of further political instability and a new coup d'état in Thailand by senior political figures in recent days
At the same time, the decision by the Constitutional Court expected on September 30th on the future of General Prayut Chan ocha as prime minister, based on the 8-year term limit provision in the 2017 Constitution, may prove to be a spark for street protests.
Minister of Digital Economy and Society Ministry Chaiwut Thanakhamanusorn warned, on Sunday, that protest activity could endanger the prospects of any future elections in Thailand as he urged would-be protesters to remain calm.
The remarks are not the first reference to unconstitutional consequences in recent weeks.
On September 19th, Seksakol Atthawong, a former Pheu Thai Party member and recently Vice Minister at the Prime Minister's Office under General Prayut, defended the 2006 coup d'état saying it was the right thing for the military to do in September that year when it removed Thaksin Shinawatra as prime minister.
The politician, known for his aggressive pronouncements as 'Rambo Isan', warned that similar moves may again be necessary if the Thaksin family again comes to power in Thailand.
The Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) reports possible heavy to very heavy rains in most parts of Thailand from September 24th to the 29th due to the severe tropical storm NORU.
According to the announcement, a strong monsoon trough lies across the lower North, the Central and the lower Northeast of Thailand during the 24th – the 26th, resulting in abundant rains in the country and isolated heavy to very heavy rains in the North, the Northeast, the Central including Bangkok and its vicinity, the East, and the South of Thailand.
Meanwhile, the NORU storm is moving west-southwest passing the Philippines into the middle South China Sea on September 25th – the 26th before making landfall over middle Vietnam on September 27th- the 28th.
This results in heavy to very heavy rains in some of the North, the Northeast, the Central and the East of Thailand from September 27th to the 29th.
During the period, the southwest monsoon across the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand will also become stronger. The strong winds forces the wave up to 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea and the upper Gulf of Thailand and more than 3 meters high in thundershowers.
The Department warns the public to beware of the severe conditions that may cause flash floods and overflows, especially along the waterways near foothills and lowlands. All ships should proceed with caution and keep off thundershowers. Small boats in the Andaman Sea keep ashore throughout the period.
With continued heavy rainfall, part of the ancient city wall of Chiang Mai collapsed. A section of the wall near the Chang Phuak Gate partially crumbled in last night's storm. The ancient wall stood in Chiang Mai for about 750 years before collapsing in the rain.
The Chiang Mai municipality was joined by authorities from the Fine Arts Department who hurried to examine the damage to the wall. They will assess the repair work needed and make plans to renovate the ancient brickwork to repair the wall.
The ancient wall is believed to have been constructed during the Lanna kingdom, at some point during the reign of King Mengrai. He ruled over ancient Thailand between the years of AD 1261 and AD 1292. After standing as a border to Chiang Mai's old city for centuries, the torrential downpours of the recent storms proved to be too much for the weather tomorrow.
Massive amounts of water have been dumped from the skies in Chiang Mai in the surrounding region with low-lying areas flooding. The Water Resource Department's regional office announce substantial rainfall measurements in the past 24 hours.
Chiang Mai recorded 84 millimetres of fresh rainwater dumped down on the province over the last 24 hours. The Samoeng district was one of the hardest-hit areas in Chiang Mai province with 106.9 millimetres since yesterday. The Meteorological Department said that in nearby Tak province, some districts are nearly as much rain also. The Sam Ngao district there recorded 102.9 millimetres of water in the pounding storms.
No timeline has been announced for repairs yet, nor have estimates on the cost of the damage done to the ancient wall.
Thaksin's daughter most popular choice for next PM: survey
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is the most popular choice for Thailand's next prime minister, according to the latest National Institute of Development Administration (Nida Poll).
Her Pheu Thai Party also came top among voting options for the upcoming election.
Conducted from September 15 to 21, the poll surveyed 2,500 people aged 18 and above from various walks of life, education backgrounds and incomes throughout the country.
Asked to name their favourite candidate for prime minister:
- 24.16% said there was no suitable candidate yet
- 21.60% said Paetongtarn Shinawatra, head of the Pheu Thai Family
- 10.56% said Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat
- 10.12% said Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, suspended prime minister
- 9.12% said Thai Sang Thai Party leader Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan
- 6.28% said Thai Liberal Party leader Seripisut Temiyavet
- 2.56% were not interested
- 2.40% said Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai Party
- 2.20% said Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew
- 2.16% said Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt
- 2.12% said Chart Pattana Party's Korn Chatikavanij
- 1.92% said Somkid Jatusripitak of Sang Anakot Thai Party
A new Omicron subvariant known as BQ.1.1, first reported in the United Kingdom last month, is now on Thailand's watchlist as the newest fast-spreading coronavirus variant, according to the Center for Medical Genomics at Ramathibodi Hospital.
The centre posted on Facebook that BQ.1.1 has now been reported in 10 other countries, with a total of 78 cases, but not yet in Thailand. It said that twenty-eight new cases were recently recorded by GISAID, the world's Covid-19 database.
According to the centre, the increase in cases in one month means BQ.1.1 could potentially replace BA.5 as the dominant strain.
Its relative growth advantage is approximately 5.3 times greater than BA.5, which makes it the fastest-spreading Omicron subvariant, the centre said, adding that the severity of symptoms is not significantly different from that caused by the BA.5 strain.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Public Health recommends one or two booster shots against Covid-19 annually after the pandemic ends.
Dr Kiattiphum Wongrajit, the ministry's permanent secretary, said people are now receiving more booster doses, with many receiving a total of five doses.
He said that the Department of Disease Control is now studying to determine the suitable number of boosters people should receive.
He said the ministry currently advises four-month vaccination intervals due to the Covid-19 situation in the country.
He said the vaccine would help improve immunity and fend off the disease.
"Fortunately, right now, the situation has changed," he said. "We have a declining number of daily infections -- the outbreak is now under control."
"So we need to adjust the booster doses in line with the situation," he said.
The ministry recently cancelled many coronavirus-preventive measures, including a vaccine passport programme for all arrivals and the ATK test requirement, after the government deemed the coronavirus situation had improved.
Dr Kiattiphum further said the ministry had adjusted its vaccine purchasing plan, which was initially set at 80 million doses of the vaccine due to arrive next year.
The Thai baht is being pulled in opposite directions by factors outside its control.
The cost of a foreign holiday in Thailand now depends increasingly on the currency you wish to exchange. The US dollar continues to rise on the back of Federal Reserve hawkish interest hikes and investors' preference for the greenback during a time of general instability in world affairs. One dollar is now worth nearly 38 baht. Kasikornbank Research says there isn't much the Bank of Thailand can do to stem the rise of the dollar, which is hiking the cost of foreign imports and fuelling Thai domestic inflation. However, the rise in foreign tourist arrivals and the increase in Thai exports should bring an improvement later in the year. CIMB Thai Bank points to a likely rise in GDP (gross domestic product) of 3.2 percent for the whole of 2022.
Meanwhile, the British pound is in headlong retreat against all major currencies including the Thai baht. Thai exchange bureaux are currently offering barely 40 baht for one UK pound, compared with 42 just weeks ago. The British chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has introduced a massive tax-cutting budget (mainly benefitting the rich) to kickstart a dash for economic growth. But the Institute of Fiscal Studies warns the UK will need to borrow an extra 72 billion pounds at a time of high inflation everywhere. The independent Bank of England could well raise interest rates substantially to dampen inflation, but this would have the effect of making mortgages and other borrowing more expensive in a continuing inflationary spiral.
International financial gurus such as Bloomberg say it's currently very difficult to predict currency movements. For example, a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, however unlikely, would immediately have a reducing effect on international oil and gas prices. Thus the British pound would be boosted in spite of the recent budget. As regards the US dollar, some speculators argue that the greenback's share of the world's foreign exchange reserves continues to fall even as the rise of crypto-currencies poses a threat to traditional theories. As physicist Stephen Hawking hinted, "The only way to predict the future is to invent it yourself."
Thailand's DPM and Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has indicated that he will NOT be ditching his face mask and has praised Thais for sticking to them.
And he he has said in pointed comments that "people in other places" may not be wearing them but Thais still were.
He was clearly referring to countries abroad and foreigners where masks have been ditched for a long while now.
In Thailand people like TV presenters still wear masks and the habit is still widespread in Bangkok and many cities especially inside shops. School children have had to wear them through the first semester that is coming to an end.
Anutin was at Khon Kaen university on the day that Covid-19 was downgraded to a communicable disease being watched, reported Thai Rath.
Picture: Thai Rath
The CCSA is being disbanded and visitors to Thailand will no longer have to have vaccinations or ATK tests from the end of next week.
But tourists arriving in Thailand may be surprised that so many people are still wearing masks. That is unlikely to change at the end of next week, suggests ASEAN NOW.
Reporters pressed Anutin yesterday about the Covid baton being passed to the Ministry of Public Health from the Communicable Disease Committee.
He responded by praising himself and the press for continuing to wear masks.
"We're "na rak" aren't we," he quipped. It's an expression that means "lovely".
"People in other places may have stopped wearing them but we Thais are still doing it.
"We have to remember that wearing masks is not just a preventative measure for Covid but protects people against resipratory and gastrointestinal diseases too", he noted.
He thanked everyone for their co-operation throughout the pandemic referring to two years of fear adding that Thailand was in control as ever.
He said that the disease was still with us but we have to live with it.
Thai Public Health Minister and Prime Minister hopeful Anutin Charnvirakul stated to the press yesterday, September 23rd, 2022, that although Thailand is downgrading Covid-19 to a monitored disease and taking other actions that people should still wear masks.
The CCSA has been in charge of much of the country's Covid-19 response and indeed overall direction for the past two and a half years since it was created under the emergency decree in March of 2020.
Anutin, however, did state that despite the removal of these measures and what appears to be a full return to normal that the public would still be encouraged to wear masks. He even said that he was proud of Thais for continuing to choose to mask up unlike many other places, which he did not specifically name or identify, and that he felt Thai people were lovely for continuing to protect themselves and each other. He did not give any specific "off date" for encouragement of wearing masks and also stated that masks helped protect against many other respiratory diseases, according to him.
TPN notes, however, that there is no mandate to wear a mask and it is purely a personal choice. However, there have been reports of some businesses and venues requiring masking which of course a private venue has the right to do so.
Although Thai Nationals have largely accepted and worn masks for the entire pandemic and indeed continue to do so in most of the country, even outside and alone, the issue of masking has often been contentious with foreign tourists and visitors.
The following is our weekly feature in which we at TPN media highlight the most important stories coming up in the next week that our editorial team believes our readers should monitor and be aware of.
The following is for the week of September 25th to October 1st, 2022.
Let's take a look at what to follow as the week ahead unfolds.
1. Thai Constitutional Court to rule on suspended Thai Prime Minister's term limit on September 30th at 3PM
The biggest story to follow over the next week will certainly be this one.
Prayut Chan-O-Cha is currently suspended from his duties as Prime Minister due to the Thai Constitutional Court debating his term limit and the legal status of it. Prayut remains the Minister of Defense during this period.
According to the opposition, Prayut has met his legal eight year term limit if counted from 2014, when then General Prayut led a military coup to take over the government.
However, according to the sitting government, Prayut has only legally been Prime Minister since 2017 when the current constitution was ratified and Prayut was made Prime Minister officially.
2. Emergency Decree to finally end after September 30th
The Emergency Decree to control the Covid-19 coronavirus will finally end next week after two-and-a-half-years.
The decree had been in place since March of 2020 and although it had significantly reduced its powers and mandates at one point the decree was used widely to enforce Covid-19 related restrictions, mandates, curfews, regulations, and more.
Critics of the decree consistently claimed it was being used to stifle pro-democracy protests and easily detain protesters upset at the Thai government for one reason or another. The Thai government, however, continued to maintain throughout the pandemic that the decree was only being used to control the Covid-19 pandemic and protect the health of the people.
With the decree ending this means the Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration or CCSA, created as an emergency department during the pandemic to oversee the administration of the pandemic fight, will disband and all Covid-19 management will move to the Ministry of Public Health.
This also means visitors to Thailand will no longer need to prove they are vaccinated against Covid-19 or have taken a recent test. The end of the decree will also return special administrative zones like Bangkok and Pattaya to their full self jurisdiction and administration.
