Expensive baht a problem for the economy - Thai Examiner

Volatile and expensive baht a problem for the economy, could be subject to speculative trading

Joseph O' Connor

The government's economic planners are nervously pouring over the numbers on the economy. This has already led to the 2022 growth figure being pared back and on Friday, we saw the country's finance minister warn about the damage being done by the higher-priced Thai baht.

Thailand's currency, the baht, could be the subject of speculation, driving it higher, as traders short the US dollar in anticipation of an easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the United States. This proposition took a hit on Monday when we saw the baht decline by over 3% against the US dollar in one day, its largest drop in 23 years. Nevertheless, on Friday, Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith insisted the ongoing strength of the baht was a key concern for the kingdom's economic prospects in 2023 as the Fiscal Policy Office gets ready to scale back finalised GDP growth figures for 2022 which will be released on February 17th.

Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith on Friday warned that the higher-valued Thai baht is negatively impacting the kingdom's economy and exports. Ironically, it comes just four days after the baht suffered its steepest one-day loss against the US dollar in 23 years amid signs that the Thai currency has again become a focus of international financial speculators betting against or shorting the US dollar after it bucked the market following a stronger than expected jobs report.

The Thai government will release its definitive 2022 GDP data on February 17th next amid reports that a sharp downturn in the last three months of 2022 led by a decline in exports could mean significantly lower than anticipated GDP growth for last year.

The final figure is expected to be in the order of 3% compared to a projected 3.4% from key economic agencies and the Fiscal Policy Office at the Ministry of Finance at the end of last year.

Minister of Finance warns the high value of the baht is hurting the economy as exports suffer

On Friday, Thailand's Minister of Finance, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith issued a strong statement in which he identified the high-priced Thai baht as a key impediment to the country's export sector at this time.

He highlighted the need for exporters to engage in foreign exchange hedging given the current volatility in the market.

Despite the baht being up by 14.71% from October 2022 against the US currency and 2.7% alone from the beginning of 2023, making it Southeast Asia's second-best-performing currency, on Monday, the Thai baht experienced its sharpest fall against the US dollar, the accepted global reserve, in 23 years.

The baht dropped against the dollar from ฿32.64 to ฿33.76 or 3.31% in just one day's trading, the worst performance since September 1999 on a day which saw Thai equities also dialled back by 0.2%.

Economy's conflicting signals, surge in consumer confidence driven by returning Chinese tourists

The conflicting signals from the economy were further highlighted with news, also on Friday, from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) which showed consumer confidence rose in January 2023 hitting 51 points, up from 49 in December and 47 in November.

In October 2022, it was 46.1 which reflected a ten-month high.

It was the eighth consecutive monthly rise since things took off in May 2022 when the consumer confidence index stood at 40.

The sharp rise in consumer confidence from May 2022 coincided with the foreign tourism boom which began that month after the unpopular Test and Go entry system was scrapped for foreign tourists which was later followed by the end of the Thailand Pass system and the end of emergency provisions altogether, on October 1st 2022.

The growth in consumer confidence level is noteworthy as it occurred at a time of rising inflation which the Bank of Thailand this week announced has fallen back to 5.02% for January having peaked in August 2022 at 7.9% with the average for last year coming in at 5.5%.

Inflation fell back to acceptable levels after peaking last August at 7.9%, January's rate was 5.02%

Food inflation in Thailand, however, hit 9.58% in October 2022 but the kingdom has been shielded from the higher levels seen in western countries by government subsidies of energy costs which are still in place.

The Bank of Thailand, which is poised to further raise interest rates on a gradual basis, is planning to bring inflation to within the targeted range of 1% to 3% in the second half of this year.

FTI boss warns Thailand faces a more dangerous geopolitical world with potential Asian flashpoints

On Friday, Mr Thanavath Phonvichai of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) highlighted the return of Chinese tourists in January as a key uplifting factor buoying the public's hopes for the country's economy.

World geopolitical tensions are bad news for Thailand's open economy, they are hot and rising

He cautioned however that external factors beyond the kingdom's control represented key risks in 2023 including the possibility of another flare-up in international tensions over the Russia-Ukraine War and a Russian offensive which could lead to a surge in oil prices.

Business leaders in Thailand are also warning of the danger to the kingdom of a deteriorating relationship between the United States and China.

This increasingly precarious dynamic poses a threat to Thailand which is a very open economy with both countries being the kingdom's preeminent trade partners.

The prospect of a hot war or military conflict between the two countries over Taiwan, the South China Sea and what China sees as US interference in its expanding world role, is growing steadily.

Sharp fall in the Thai baht against the US dollar on Monday last, the steepest in 23 years, after US jobs data showed a very resilient American economy

Monday's fall in the Thai baht came as a surprise when stock markets and currencies in Asia across the board declined in response to surprisingly positive job data from the United States which suggested the Federal Reserve has scope to prolong its tough interest rate policy which has seen interest rates climb to between 4.5% and 4.75%.

'Amongst AxJ (meaning Asia excluding Japan), the baht is one that appears to be most stretched in terms of positioning and magnitude of the move. Hence, the sharp unwinding of the US dollar shorts appears most felt in the baht,' said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore.

The concern of analysts looking at Thailand's economic prospects is how long this reduced demand for the kingdom's exports will be prolonged following a 7.5% drop in the last quarter of 2022 and despite assurances from the Thai National Shippers' Council that, overall for 2023, exports will grow marginally by at least 1%.

Exports falling while a consumer spending boom appears to have peaked, Thai workers cutting back

Thailand's export sector, the mainstay of its manufacturing economy, accounts for 60% of the country's GDP.

There was also evidence of a decrease in the rate of private consumption growth in the last quarter of 2022 despite a strengthening consumer confidence index. 

The figure for private consumption or the Private Consumption Indicator (PCI), only rose by 2.7% in December 2022 compared to a 10% plus rise in the opening nine months of last year.

This came despite large numbers of foreign tourists to the kingdom who spent an estimated ฿100 billion alone in December 2022.

This means that ordinary Thai workers have been cutting back on consumption and day-to-day spending to make ends meet.

It is a similar story to consumers all over the world, hence the lower demand for the country's exports.

Manufacturing activity predicted to decline in the opening months of 2023 with all eyes on tourist arrivals. Thailand is targeting 22 million this year

There is also evidence from import data in the last three months of 2022 that Thai manufacturing activity may be down in the opening months of 2023 with a 14.7% decline in primary or intermediate goods for manufacturing in December 2022.

Airline generating positive cash flow of ฿30 billion per annum with volume still picking up says boss

Economists agree that the decisive factor for Thailand's economy in 2023 will be the number of foreign tourists who arrive with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) currently predicting 22 million visitors compared to 11.5 million in 2022.

Initial indications from the tourist industry and key players such as Thai Airways are that things are looking up with more demand and significantly more flight routes being opened up to the kingdom.

The emerging question is whether or not elevated inflation levels and lower growth together with higher borrowing costs as interest rates rise in Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States and China will impact the flow of foreign tourists with a travel industry still catering to pent-up demand.

The situation will not be helped by an overpriced baht which may well be a vehicle for speculation by short sellers against the US dollar whose confidence in the currency is underpinned by the kingdom's robust financial system, strong foreign reserves and over 98% of public debt sourced within its own borders.



Lobby says tourism must be priority. State urged to tackle industry's challenges. The Thai Hotels Association (THA) has urged the next government to prioritise the tourism industry as a key economic driver, addressing the labour shortage, low level of safety and security, as well as sustainability. Bangkok Post

Lobby says tourism must be priority

Tourists arrive at Suvarnabhumi airport on Thursday. (Photo: Somchai Poomlard)

The Thai Hotels Association (THA) has urged the next government to prioritise the tourism industry as a key economic driver, addressing the labour shortage, low level of safety and security, as well as sustainability.

Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, the THA president, said Thai tourism workers are in high demand in many countries where the industry has revived, including spa therapists and cruise workers, as many of them relocated for new jobs.

This situation amplified the labour shortage following the two-year pandemic shutdown, which caused a number of tourism workers to return to their hometowns permanently.

Another challenge is the agreement with Saudi Arabia to allocate Thai workers to the Middle Eastern country, which seeks manpower from Thailand to fill vacancies in the hospitality sector.

"Hotels in major provinces are now competing for both skilled and unskilled labour," said Mrs Marisa.

"As Thailand becomes an aged society with a low birthrate, the industry will likely face an ongoing shortage."

She said Thailand ranked poorly for safety and security as well as environmental sustainability in the World Economic Forum's Travel And Tourism Development Index 2021.

The nation ranked 92nd and 97th, respectively, although its overall position was 36th thanks to high marks for infrastructure and price competitiveness.

"The tourism sector could create an economic multiplier for society at every level, particularly grass roots. We need the new government to prioritise this industry and integrate related work from different ministries to speed up the development process," said Mrs Marisa during the "Economic Drives" forum on Thursday, which gathered candidates for prime minister and representatives from political parties.

In terms of sustainability, she recommended tax cuts and incentives for certified green hotels and green regulations across the whole supply chain.

For example, Singapore provides a sustainability roadmap requiring 60% of hotel rooms to achieve sustainable standards by 2025.

Napas Paorohitya, chief marketing officer at Bumrungrad International Hospital, said Thailand has the potential to be a medical and wellness tourism hub, but challenges remain in terms of value.

Thailand attracted more than 3.5 million tourists for those services in 2019, four times higher than Singapore, which tallied 850,000 visitors.

However, Thailand generated only 43 billion baht that year, 19% higher than Singapore.

Ms Napas said the country must pivot to high-value industries, offering more services in addition to medical check-ups, such as intensity care, customised care and longevity care packages, in order to gain higher margins.



Some provinces facing extreme heat from end of this month. THE METEOROLOGICAL Department’s statistics show that some provinces could be hit by extreme heat with temperature soaring to almost 45 degrees Celsius this summer that is starting from end of Feb. and will last till mid-May with this being a week or two later than usual, Matichon newspaper said today (Feb. 9).- Thai Newsroom

Some provinces facing extreme heat from end of this month

February 9, 2023  TNR Staff

THE METEOROLOGICAL Department's statistics show that some provinces could be hit by extreme heat with temperature soaring to almost 45 degrees Celsius this summer that is starting from end of Feb. and will last till mid-May with this being a week or two later than usual, Matichon newspaper said today (Feb. 9).

While the highest temperature in upper Thailand will be 35.5. degrees Celsius, close to the normal range of 35.4°C, this is higher than last year's average of 34°C.

However the department's statistics show that there are some province where temperature could soar to nearly 45°C with these being the following:

1) Mueang district, Mae Hong Son province, on April 28, 2016 the temperature was 44.6 °C;

2) Uttaradit province, on April 27, 1960 and Sukhothai province, on May 11, 2016 it was 44.5°C;

3) Sukhothai province, on April 12, 2016 it was 44.3°C;

4) Thoen district, Lampang province, on April 11, 2019 it was 44.2°C;

5) Mae Sariang district, Mae Hong Son province, on April 25, 1958, Nan province, on April 12, 1959 and Sukhothai province, on May 13, 2016 it was 44.1°C.

Met. Department's Director Ms. Chomphari Chomphurat said that from the end of February to the middle of March many parts of upper Thailand will be hot during the day but some parts of the North and Northeast will still be cool in the morning.

However from mid-March to mid-April it will be sweltering hot and sometimes extremely hot in many areas. The highest temperature will be 40-43°C and there could also be summer storms. However from mid-April to mid-May the weather is erratic being very hot in some areas but thunderstorms breaking out in others.

The South faces more rain and possibly heavy showers from late February to mid-April. Waves in the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand will be one to two metres high with the temperature being around 37-38°C.

From the end of April onwards there will likely be continuous rain, from heavy to very heavy in some places and waves will reach two to three metres high in the Andaman Sea with cyclones possibly forming.

Thailand’s four major international airports being expanded to cope with return of foreign tourists. Deputy government spokeswoman Traisulee Taisaranakul said efforts are being speeded up to expand major international airports after the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand predicted that the number of foreign arrivals would reach the pre-Covid level in 2024. The Nation

Thailand's four major international airports being expanded to cope with return of foreign tourists

The government is expanding at least four international airports to cope with the return of foreign tourists after the Covid pandemic, a senior government official said on Thursday.

Deputy government spokeswoman Traisulee Taisaranakul said efforts are being speeded up to expand major international airports after the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand predicted that the number of foreign arrivals would reach the pre-Covid level in 2024.

The expansion of the airports are also aimed at coping with the prediction of the International Air Transport Association, the spokeswoman added. She quoted the IATA as predicting around 200 million foreign arrivals in 2031.

Traisulee said the four major airport expansion projects are:

● Suvarnabhumi International Airport Phase 2

Under the project, the construction of the Satellite Airport Terminal – 1 (SAT-1) has been completed and the Transport Ministry will start using the new terminal this year. The SAT-1 terminal will boost the airport's capacity from 45 million passengers a year to 60 million a year.

Traisulee said the airport was also building its third runway, and the construction would be completed in 2024. After the third runway is completed, the airport will be able to receive 94 flights per hour from the current 68 flights per hour.

● Don Mueang International Airport Phase 3

The Cabinet on November 29 last year approved the Phase-3 development. Construction will start this year, and is due to be completed in 2029.

The Phase 3 project involves multiple constructions, including the third terminal, a runway, a new aircraft hangar and a warehouse building.

The airport will also build other basic facilities, including a new carpark building, a new office building, new roads, a new maintenance building, a garbage management zone, a new drainage system, and a fire station.

Traisulee said when the project is completed, the Don Mueang airport would be able to accommodate 40 million passengers a year, from the current 30 million.

● Expansion of the U-Tapao International Airport in Rayong

The expansion will be carried out in four phases and once completed in 2055, the airport will be able to receive 60 million passengers a year.

Traisulee said the first phase would be completed in 2024, after which the airport would be able to accommodate 15.9 million passengers a year.

● Phuket International Airport Phase 2

The project aims to expand passenger capacity from 12.5 million a year to 18 million. The project includes the expansion of the international terminal, and the expansion of aircraft hangars as well as expansion of basic infrastructure.

Traisulee said Airports of Thailand Plc, which runs the airports, is now selecting an advisory firm to set the details of the project.

As part of the preparations for increased international flights, the government has also drafted a new civil aviation master plan, which will be in use until 2037. Traisulee said the Cabinet approved the plan on Tuesday.

The Institute of Marine Science in Bang Saen Has Glowing Jellyfish & Daily Dive Shows. Visit The Institute of Marine Science in Bang Saen to see sea life and dive shows. The Snart Local Thailand

The Institute of Marine Science Has Glowing Jellyfish & Daily Dive Shows

The Institute of Marine Science in Bang Saen

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Bang Saen is a city known among locals for its pristine beaches. Bangkok dwellers – and Vitamin Sea lovers – often flock to the coastal town to enjoy weekends away from the hustle and bustle of the concrete jungle. But besides getting your tan in on the beach, diving deep into the ocean to admire marine creatures underwater, may require a bit more effort.

That'swhy the Institute of Marine Science – an establishment in Burapha University with a museum and an aquarium filled with all sorts of marine animals – is a great place to visit to gain a greater appreciation for sea life. Since it's officially part of an educational institution, it's also open to people from all walks of life and we'll take you through what to expect below.

More places in Thailand:

• TreeHouse Villas is a forested resort on an island in Phang Nga
• Cafe Timeo is a riverside Scandinavian-themed Coffee bar in Khao Yai
• Fairest Domestay is a rainforest resort with private jacuzzis in Kanchanaburi

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Aquarium houses marine creatures native to Thailand

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Image credit: @tiewtooktit

The Institute of Marine Science is a hidden aquarium in Burapha University in Bang Saen, Chonburi. The bustling museum acts as an educational hub for people to learn about marine creatures and Thailand's efforts to preserve the habitats of native fish species in our country.

Once you enter the university, look for a fountain with dolphin statues because that'll indicate that you have arrived at the heart of the institute.

Image credit: @tutti_ryo

Walking into the building, you'll see a ticket counter where you need to pay to enter the aquarium. The admission fees differ for Thai citizens and foreigners; costing ฿80 (~USD2) for locals and ฿220 (~USD6) for foreigners.

Image credit: @miwaeee_

Within the aquarium, there are zones with different kinds of sea animals shown to visitors. For example, here's a spot where you can see cute clownfish swimming around and nipping at plants under LED lights scattered within the tank.

Image credit: @tiewtooktit

Once you reach this hallway, you might be surprised to see bulky stingrays swimming back and forth among swarms of small fish, not something we can normally see in our daily lives.

Image credit: @nutto_pigpanda

Interestingly, one of the most popular spots in the aquarium is this glowing jellyfish exhibition. Here, you'll find many people gazing attentively at these jellyfish; mostly engrossed in taking photos and recording videos. Having said that, we're not too surprised as the jellyfish do look extremely ethereal and beautiful.

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Catch diving and feeding demonstrations 

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Image credit: @tiewtooktit

At 2.30PM daily, there will be a dive show unfolding at the large tanks. You'll get to spot a diver clad in scuba-diving gear plunge into the fish tank among hundreds of fish, trying to feed them while the rays are swimming around. On the weekends, the institute runs this show twice, the first at 10.30AM and the second round at 2.30PM.

Of course, these pictures are but snapshots of what a live feeding experience could feel like. We're sure that the moment when a diver feeds a stingray will definitely be an impressive scene for many folks.

Image credit: เที่ยวบ่อย

As for us, we basically feel like taking the plunge ourselves to get closer to these fish. In any case, we'd recommend getting your cameras ready to capture this moment if you do attend a show.

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Go up to the second floor to explore a museum

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Image credit: สมาชิกหมายเลข 5660505

After you're satisfied with the aquarium tour, try going up to the second floor to tour a cosy museum that's home to exhibits imparting knowledge about marine life.

The details and diagrams are presented in both Thai and English, so there's no need to worry about any language barriers. If this sounds interesting to you, carve out some time from your itinerary to explore this area too

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Getting to the Institute of Marine Science in Bang Saen

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Diving into a deep ocean just to get a glimpse of sea life might sound like a pipe dream for many of us, but that doesn't mean there's no hope you can see marine life at all. The Institute of Marine Science is could be a good pitstop in Thailand if you wish to learn more about different aquatic creatures, or gain a better understanding about conservation efforts in the Land of Smiles.

For the location, the Institute of Marine Science is 2 hours away from Bangkok but less than 10 minutes from Bang Saen Beach. So if you plan to turn up after a day of chilling at the beach, you can get to this place easily. Check out the map we've linked below for more precise directions and let us know what you thought if you've been here before n the comments.

The Institute of Marine Science
Address: 169 Long Had Bangsaen Rd, Saen Suk, Chon Buri District, Chon Buri 20131
Opening Hours: 9AM – 4PM, Daily
Telephone: +66 3 839 1672
The Institute of Marine Science's Facebook | Google Maps

Thai taxi scams are keeping tourists away. Overpriced taxi services have become the main issue of concern among foreign tourists while traveling in Thailand, followed by entry procedures, littering and air pollution, a survey shows. Bangkok Jack

Thai taxi scams are keeping tourists away

February 4, 2023

Taxi drivers wait for customers in Bangkok, Thailand, May 29, 2021. Photo by Reuters

Overpriced taxi services have become the main issue of concern among foreign tourists while traveling in Thailand, followed by entry procedures, littering and air pollution, a survey shows.

Taxi services in Thailand received the worst score of 3.5 out of 5, according to the survey conducted by the Tourism Council of Thailand, which polled 200 Western tourists during the final quarter of last year.

Foreign tourists complained that taxi drivers in Thailand often only pick up passengers who agree to pay a fare without using the meter, which means drivers can arbitrarily charge higher prices for their service, the Bangkok Post reported.

In addition to taxi scams, the complicated entry process at Thailand's airports upon arrival is also a major concern for foreign tourists, receiving a score of 3.45.

The problem of littering at many popular tourist sites and air pollution from hazardous fine particulate matter (PM2.5) also received complaints from tourists.

Thailand, Southeast Asia's second largest economy, received 11 million foreign visitors last year thanks to its open visa policy, making its tourism industry among the fastest to recover in the region following the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Thai government is targeting 25 million foreign arrivals this year. – VNExpress

Thailand's corruption rating improves - slightly. Thailand’s corruption standing for 2022 improved nine places to 101st, from 110th out of 180 countries in 2021, according to the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International. Thailand is 4th among ASEAN countries. Bangkok Jack

Thailand's corruption rating improves – slightly

February 4, 2023

Thailand's corruption standing for 2022 an improvement over 2021

Thailand's corruption standing for 2022 improved nine places to 101st, from 110th out of 180 countries in 2021, according to the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International. Thailand is 4th among ASEAN countries.

Secretary-General of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), Niwatchai Kasemmongkol, said that Thailand scored 36 points, compared to 35 points in the 2021.

The world's top performer was Denmark, which scored 90 points, followed by Finland and New Zealand, which scored 87 points. Top performer among Asian countries was Singapore, which was ranked the 4th place globally, with 83 points.

The assessment was based on information from nine sources and Thailand scored more points last year than a year earlier in assessments from the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, from 39 to 43, and the World Economic Forum, from 42 to 45 points, according to Niwatchai.

He said that, from foreign investors' perception, the Thai Government has become more serious in dealing with the problem of bribery and has taken punitive action against corrupt officials.

The government has also reformed the system for approving projects, by cutting bureaucratic red tape and reducing the discretion available to officialss, said Niwatchai.

He said that, from the point of view of the people responsible for the performance assessment, the Thai Government is still unable to tackle corruption in government bureaucracy, with rampant graft among state officials in budget management, conflicts of interests and lax law enforcement.

As far as the NACC is concerned, Niwatchai said that the corruption watchdog has developed information technology and communication systems to support anti-corruption efforts, such as the agency case monitoring system.

He also said that the promotion of public participation will help boost efforts to deal with corruption in the bureaucracy. – Thai PBS

Phuket plays Russian roulette - an existential problem for the island's tourism. Whilst Phuket’s tourism tzars are delighted with the surge of arrivals into Phuket in recent months, the statistics reveal some crucial warnings for Phuket’s immediate tourism future.- phuketGO

Phuket plays Russian roulette – an existential problem for the island's tourism

By

 

Wednesday, February 1, 2023 11:51

by Tim Newton

Whilst Phuket's tourism tzars are delighted with the surge of arrivals into Phuket in recent months, the statistics reveal some crucial warnings for Phuket's immediate tourism future. And, despite all the back-patting from the local Tourism of Thailand office, Phuket's total tourist arrivals are still below 50% of average pre-pandemic levels.

Still, Phuket's tourism stakeholders have been lapping up the surge of mostly Russian arrivals as hotels, restaurants and seats in tour boats have been filling up over the past two months.

Let's check out the actual statistics.

Since the middle of December, Phuket has been receiving an average of 10-13,000 visitors a day, a figure that seems to be flatlining lately, according to the arrival statistics. But the vast majority of the arrivals since November are from one country – Russia. In Phuket's entire tourism history, there has never been such a concentration of arrivals from one particular country, not even close. Even with Chinese mass tourism in the years before the pandemic, the highest proportion of Chinese arrivals only reached 28%.

To amplify the issue, if you add up the arrivals from the next five countries in the list, from November 1 – January 31, you arrive at a similar figure of current Russian arrivals.

GRAPH: Phuket immigration arrivals

To be clear, there is no slight intended with these figures, it's just statistics. Many of the Russian arrivals are families, either on holidays escaping the Russian winter or trying to get some reprieve from the current political situation. There are some younger Russian men who admit to fleeing the new conscription laws, enacted by President Putin in early September last year, but they are not the majority.

267,245 Russian citizens have arrived in Phuket since the start of November last year. Of course there were Russians in the tourism mix for the decade before Covid-19 but never in the numbers, proportionally, we are seeing now. Indians, too, are a relatively new addition to the 'top 5' arrivals list but have become an important staple for Phuket's tourism mix since borders progressively opened with fewer restrictions last year.

If we were to remove the 267,245 Russian arrivals from the arrival's list, Phuket's tourism situation would be dire, in anyone's estimation. Simply put, the situation with the Russia/Ukraine war, and the open door policy to Russian arrivals by the Thai government, has saved Phuket's tourism recovery.

PHOTO: Aeroflot flight arriving in Phuket yesterday

But whilst the hoteliers and restaurant owners are happily welcoming the surge of visitors, there are others who don't see the current trend as either sustainable or a useful long-term solution, calling instead for a more diverse mix of nationalities to visit Thailand in the future.

There has also been an enormous surge in property purchases from Russian citizens in the past 3 months, pushing up the prices in the island's turbulent property market. Rental prices for motorbikes, cars and villas are skyrocketing. And the impact on the immigration offices and new visa applications is being widely reported.

Just last week, Ho Ren Yung, the senior vice-president at the Banyan Tree Group, was calling for more diversity in tourism promotion.

"Before the pandemic, one-third of the Banyan Tree's guests were Chinese. We are anticipating rising bookings in February as the Chinese tourists return. But we will certainly retain our guest diversity."

Phuket has been caught with its pants down before, hitching their tourism wagon to the Chinese travel express during the 2010s. The focus on attracting Chinese visitors became an acute problem following the 2018 sinking of the 'Phoenix' and the drowning by 47 Chinese tourists, including many children (the bad PR would have been a lot worse worldwide if not for the concurrent story of the Thai Cave Rescue which was in full swing at the time).

The negative publicity from the story, and the lack of action from Thai authorities at the time (including some insensitive comments from the deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan), didn't travel well in Chinese social media, causing the tourism arrival figures in Phuket over the following year to plunge, for the first time in four decades. Tourism from China eventually recovered again but the lesson about reliance on one, single market had been learned.

Or had it?

Whilst market forces dictate, arrivals from some of the traditionally strong tourism markets, including many of the long haul feeder markets, are being hampered by both a lack and high price of flights, global economic challenges and a change in attitude towards Thai tourism. Whilst being the darling of world travel in the early 2000s, Thailand's 'bars, beaches and temples' tourism model is being overtaken by emerging tourism opportunities and a change in the post-Covid global travel demographics.

Phuket's tourism strength will always be providing a range of experiences to a diverse mix of nationalities and various budgets. The current focus on one nationality should be a concern for every person who derives a living from tourism in Phuket – the lessons of the past appear to be quickly forgotten.

Talks set to start on berry pickers' plight. Sweden mulls visa halt over welfare. The Ministry of Labour will start talks with the Swedish embassy in Thailand, after it threatened to suspend issuing seasonal working visas to Thai berry pickers following reports of unfair treatment by employers and job brokers, it said on Monday. Bangkok Post

Talks set to start on berry pickers' plight

Two Thai workers pick berries in a forest in Europe. (Photo: Ministry of Labour)

The Ministry of Labour will start talks with the Swedish embassy in Thailand, after it threatened to suspend issuing seasonal working visas to Thai berry pickers following reports of unfair treatment by employers and job brokers, it said on Monday.

"Even though Sweden has every right to ban Thai berry pickers from entering the country, there must be a way to resolve the situation," said Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin, urging stakeholders to sit down together to hash out a solution.

The minister was responding to a series of Twitter posts by Jon Åström Gröndahl, the Swedish ambassador to Thailand on Jan 13, which said, "Unscrupulous employment actors with shadow contracts and fake documents have no place in the labour market."

"The Swedish Embassy in Bangkok will not facilitate berry pickers until all employers guarantee fair recruitment, safety standards and decent working conditions," the tweet said.

Later on Jan 18, the ambassador tweeted again saying: "Sweden and Thailand (Ministry of Labour) working together on finding solutions and a way forward in ensuring the rights and decent working conditions for Thai berry pickers going to Sweden. Employers and recruitment agencies have key roles and must do their part."

Aside from the Swedish ambassador, the Finnish ambassador had also warned in a Facebook post on Jan 21 that Thai workers intending to go to Finland for a berry-picking job to research the actual costs and their potential income before they apply for the job and go.

Mr Suchart continued, "When problems arise, talks should be launched to clear it up. But if the problem really can't be solved, we're not going to send [Thai berry pickers to Sweden]."

Phairoj Chotikasatien, director-general of Department of Employment, who will work with the embassy on the matter, said the Swedish ambassador was concerned about the problems encountered by Thai berry pickers while working in Sweden.

Mr Phairoj said he met the ambassador around mid-December last year when they discussed working conditions among Thai berry pickers.

He said the problem is more complex than it seems, with more stakeholders involved than just the employers and employees, including brokers which supply these workers to Sweden, as well as companies which buy the berries from the farms that had hired the workers.

Many Thai workers are keen to go to Sweden or Finland to take up berry-picking jobs from July to September each year, in between the rice harvest season and the planting season.

That said, as the number of Thais keen to take up the job has increased over the past two decades, workers are making less money than before.

A source said the number of Thais who travelled to Sweden and Finland to take up berry-picking jobs rose to 6,000 last year, up from 5,000 in the previous year.

As a result, the number of disputes has also increased, with about 400 workers asking the Labour Ministry to act as a mediator between them and their employers and/or recruitment agencies.

About half of these cases have been settled successfully, said the source.

Samarn Laodumrongchai, an expert at the Institute of Asian Studies, said many Thai berry pickers ended up overstaying their visas to take up other jobs when they realised they haven't made enough to cover the debts they took up to secure the berry picking job.

Covid situation improves, low infection rate in outbound travellers. The local Covid-19 situation is improving and the infection rate among outbound travellers is only about 4%, with vaccination stations for foreign tourists now open in 31 provinces, according to the Public Health Ministry. Bangkok Post

Covid situation improves, low infection rate in outbound travellers

People wait for a Covid-19 shot at a vaccination centre managed by City Hall at the Thai-Japanese Youth Centre in Bangkok's Din Daeng district on Jan 8. (Photo: Varuth Hirunyatheb)

The local Covid-19 situation is improving and the infection rate among outbound travellers is only about 4%, with vaccination stations for foreign tourists now open in 31 provinces, according to the Public Health Ministry.

Dr Opas Karnkawinpong, permanent secretary for public health, said on Monday that the  Covid-19 situation in Thailand continued to improve. In the fourth week of this year (from Jan 22 to 28) there were 472 Covid-19 inpatients (67 per day) and 29 fatalities (four per day).

During the previous week there were 627 inpatients (90 per day) and 44 fatalities (six per day).

"All the new fatalities were vulnerable people, most of them were never vaccinated or received only one shot," Dr Opas said.

Health officials remained prepared to handle the increasing number of arrivals. Workers in the service sector were undergoing antigen tests weekly.

From Jan 8 to 21, 828 outbound travellers took RT-PCR tests and 33 of them, 3.99%, tested positive for Covid-19 - 12 Chinese, nine Thais and 12 of other nationalities.

Dr Opas said the BA.2.75 subvariant of the Omicron variant was the dominant strain in the country, accounting for 90% of newly tested cases.

He also said there were now 128 Covid-19 vaccination centres for foreign tourists in 31 provinces. The Health Ministry had not authorised any vaccination centre in the private sector for the purpose yet. 

Phuket international schools 8th cheapest in Asia. International schools on the island also remain cheaper than their counterparts in Bangkok and Pattaya, ISD has reported. China ranked the most expensive country in Asia for international education, with four Chinese cities in the top 10 most expensive locations across the continent, said a release announcing ISD’s analysis for 2022. Phuket News

Phuket international schools 8th cheapest in Asia

Phuket is cheaper than the average city in Asia for international schools, ranking eighth cheapest out of 24 cities, according to the latest research released by International Schools Database (ISD).

International schools on the island also remain cheaper than their counterparts in Bangkok and Pattaya, ISD has reported.

China ranked the most expensive country in Asia for international education, with four Chinese cities in the top 10 most expensive locations across the continent, said a release announcing ISD's analysis for 2022.

The database, launched in 2019, allows parents to find, research and compare international schools around the world. The latest release uses all price data available to the organisation as of Dec 31, 2022. "There may be additional schools and prices not included in each city, because they do not make their price data available or it is unknown to us," ISD noted in its release.

Phuket was included in the analysis of international schools in 24 cities in 13 Asian countries, in graph and table forms. 

"Similar to last year, China continues to dominate as the most expensive country in Asia for international schools. The top four most expensive cities are all located in China – Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. This order also remains the same since last year, however, median prices have increased in all four cities (although only slightly in Shenzhen)," the release noted.

Ipoh, in Perak, Malaysia, is a new city included in the research this year and has taken the title of the least expensive location in Asia for international schooling. Following it is Phnom Penh, which was 2021's least expensive city. 

"Prices in Ipoh range from US$2,316 to $3,065 per year, which is a stark contrast to Asia's most expensive city, Beijing. Prices in this Chinese metropolis range from above $10,000 to almost $40,000 per year, ISD reported.

Despite the high prices seen in China, elsewhere in Asia median prices were more affordable than most people might think. 

"Of the 24 cities included in our analysis of Asia, 14 had median prices of under $15,000 per year. These were Taipei, Yangon, Bangkok, Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Manila, Johor Bahru, Bali, Penang, Kuala Lumpur, Phnom Penh and Ipoh – Perak," ISD explained.

Malaysia and Thailand are the most affordable countries in Asia when it comes to the cost of international education, while Pattaya, Chiang Mai and Phuket along with four Malaysian cities (Johor Bahru, Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Ipoh) are included in the 10 least expensive locations in the continent. Other countries include Indonesia (Bali), Philippines (Manila), and Cambodia (Phnom Penh).

"This year we have added Bali to our analysis for the first time, and it is the fifth least expensive destination overall in Asia. This should be good news for many people, since the Indonesian island is becoming increasingly popular as an expat destination," explained ISD Co-Founder Andrea Robledillo.

Of note, Phuket ranked fifth cheapest international school in Asia in the study in 2020.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and currency value fluctuations across the region, Ms Robledillo offered different reasons for Phuket's slide down to eighth place.

"The main reason why it moved from the fifth cheapest in Asia for international education to the eighth cheapest is because this year we were able to extend our research to include two new cities/areas in Asia that are cheaper than Phuket: Bali and Ipoh - Perak. This made Phuket move up two positions in the ranking," Ms Robledillo explained.

"Additionally, Phuket also moved up one position because this year Manila's median international school price became slightly cheaper than Phuket, instead of slightly more expensive as it was in 2021," she added.

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A breakdown of exact prices for each Asian city in the study, and comparable price data for other regions and cities around the world as well as additional research at International-schools-database.com. Each school's listing includes full contact details, school policies, nationality information, extra-curricular activities, and more.

Heinecke uneasy about vaccines offered to visitors. A hotel tycoon is disappointed with the government's tight control over Covid vaccinations, suggesting more tourists coming to Thailand aren't comfortable visiting public healthcare centres. Bangkok Post

Heinecke uneasy about vaccines offered to visitors

A hotel tycoon is disappointed with the government's tight control over Covid vaccinations, suggesting more tourists coming to Thailand aren't comfortable visiting public healthcare centres.

William Heinecke, chairman and founder of Minor International Plc, said the government moved quickly in reopening the country, but the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines was disappointing.

He said the government kept tight control over vaccines, with distribution restricted to government centres, rather than being freely available throughout the country.

Some foreign tourists don't feel comfortable visiting government clinics, preferring private hospitals or clinics, said Mr Heinecke.

The Public Health Ministry started a pilot vaccination project this month for tourists in popular provinces, but it only allows public hospitals and healthcare centres to serve as vaccination centres.

The private sector was not permitted to join the project.

Speaking at an NH Hotel Group press conference, related to one of the company's major investments, Mr Heinecke said as Covid infections ease, Minor plans to focus on growth this year, expanding its hotel and food portfolio, both in terms of owned equity and management deals.

Brands under NH would be among the firm's key businesses to grow globally, he said.

"Hopefully the general election this year will be handled smoothly and the Thai recovery will continue with the government's support," said Mr Heinecke.

He said tourism rebounded strongly during the New Year and the Chinese New Year, even without Chinese market.

A more diverse range of nationalities helped raise room rates in all markets, as the industry is not currently overly reliant on a specific market, said Mr Heinecke.

This balance should persist because the Chinese market only started to return this month and will take until the fourth quarter to post a significant recovery, he said.

Dillip Rajakarier, group chief executive of Minor International and chief executive at Minor Hotels, said the company is still looking for joint ventures with sovereign wealth funds to add hotels in Thailand and globally after it secured an agreement with Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) in December last year.

The deal enables ADFD to jointly hold a 40% share in four hotels in Thailand -- Anantara Riverside Bangkok Resort, Avani+ Riverside Bangkok Hotel, Anantara Layan Phuket Resort and Four Seasons Resort Koh Samui -- as well as the mall Riverside Plaza Bangkok.

"We're in talks with the top 10 funds in Europe and look forward to using those investments in new hotels for expansion," said Mr Rajakarier.

"There will be at least two more joint ventures with leading funds this year."

He said Minor has more than 70 properties in the pipeline.

With the strong recovery in tourism building up since last year, the revenue contribution from hotels for the group increased to 75% in 2022 from 68% in 2021, which is the same proportion recorded before the pandemic.