The government's economic planners are nervously pouring over the numbers on the economy. This has already led to the 2022 growth figure being pared back and on Friday, we saw the country's finance minister warn about the damage being done by the higher-priced Thai baht.
Thailand's currency, the baht, could be the subject of speculation, driving it higher, as traders short the US dollar in anticipation of an easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the United States. This proposition took a hit on Monday when we saw the baht decline by over 3% against the US dollar in one day, its largest drop in 23 years. Nevertheless, on Friday, Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith insisted the ongoing strength of the baht was a key concern for the kingdom's economic prospects in 2023 as the Fiscal Policy Office gets ready to scale back finalised GDP growth figures for 2022 which will be released on February 17th.
Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith on Friday warned that the higher-valued Thai baht is negatively impacting the kingdom's economy and exports. Ironically, it comes just four days after the baht suffered its steepest one-day loss against the US dollar in 23 years amid signs that the Thai currency has again become a focus of international financial speculators betting against or shorting the US dollar after it bucked the market following a stronger than expected jobs report.
The Thai government will release its definitive 2022 GDP data on February 17th next amid reports that a sharp downturn in the last three months of 2022 led by a decline in exports could mean significantly lower than anticipated GDP growth for last year.
The final figure is expected to be in the order of 3% compared to a projected 3.4% from key economic agencies and the Fiscal Policy Office at the Ministry of Finance at the end of last year.
Minister of Finance warns the high value of the baht is hurting the economy as exports suffer
On Friday, Thailand's Minister of Finance, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith issued a strong statement in which he identified the high-priced Thai baht as a key impediment to the country's export sector at this time.
He highlighted the need for exporters to engage in foreign exchange hedging given the current volatility in the market.
Despite the baht being up by 14.71% from October 2022 against the US currency and 2.7% alone from the beginning of 2023, making it Southeast Asia's second-best-performing currency, on Monday, the Thai baht experienced its sharpest fall against the US dollar, the accepted global reserve, in 23 years.
The baht dropped against the dollar from ฿32.64 to ฿33.76 or 3.31% in just one day's trading, the worst performance since September 1999 on a day which saw Thai equities also dialled back by 0.2%.
Economy's conflicting signals, surge in consumer confidence driven by returning Chinese tourists
The conflicting signals from the economy were further highlighted with news, also on Friday, from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) which showed consumer confidence rose in January 2023 hitting 51 points, up from 49 in December and 47 in November.
In October 2022, it was 46.1 which reflected a ten-month high.
It was the eighth consecutive monthly rise since things took off in May 2022 when the consumer confidence index stood at 40.
The sharp rise in consumer confidence from May 2022 coincided with the foreign tourism boom which began that month after the unpopular Test and Go entry system was scrapped for foreign tourists which was later followed by the end of the Thailand Pass system and the end of emergency provisions altogether, on October 1st 2022.
The growth in consumer confidence level is noteworthy as it occurred at a time of rising inflation which the Bank of Thailand this week announced has fallen back to 5.02% for January having peaked in August 2022 at 7.9% with the average for last year coming in at 5.5%.
Inflation fell back to acceptable levels after peaking last August at 7.9%, January's rate was 5.02%
Food inflation in Thailand, however, hit 9.58% in October 2022 but the kingdom has been shielded from the higher levels seen in western countries by government subsidies of energy costs which are still in place.
The Bank of Thailand, which is poised to further raise interest rates on a gradual basis, is planning to bring inflation to within the targeted range of 1% to 3% in the second half of this year.
On Friday, Mr Thanavath Phonvichai of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) highlighted the return of Chinese tourists in January as a key uplifting factor buoying the public's hopes for the country's economy.
World geopolitical tensions are bad news for Thailand's open economy, they are hot and rising
He cautioned however that external factors beyond the kingdom's control represented key risks in 2023 including the possibility of another flare-up in international tensions over the Russia-Ukraine War and a Russian offensive which could lead to a surge in oil prices.
Business leaders in Thailand are also warning of the danger to the kingdom of a deteriorating relationship between the United States and China.
This increasingly precarious dynamic poses a threat to Thailand which is a very open economy with both countries being the kingdom's preeminent trade partners.
The prospect of a hot war or military conflict between the two countries over Taiwan, the South China Sea and what China sees as US interference in its expanding world role, is growing steadily.
Sharp fall in the Thai baht against the US dollar on Monday last, the steepest in 23 years, after US jobs data showed a very resilient American economy
Monday's fall in the Thai baht came as a surprise when stock markets and currencies in Asia across the board declined in response to surprisingly positive job data from the United States which suggested the Federal Reserve has scope to prolong its tough interest rate policy which has seen interest rates climb to between 4.5% and 4.75%.
'Amongst AxJ (meaning Asia excluding Japan), the baht is one that appears to be most stretched in terms of positioning and magnitude of the move. Hence, the sharp unwinding of the US dollar shorts appears most felt in the baht,' said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore.
The concern of analysts looking at Thailand's economic prospects is how long this reduced demand for the kingdom's exports will be prolonged following a 7.5% drop in the last quarter of 2022 and despite assurances from the Thai National Shippers' Council that, overall for 2023, exports will grow marginally by at least 1%.
Exports falling while a consumer spending boom appears to have peaked, Thai workers cutting back
Thailand's export sector, the mainstay of its manufacturing economy, accounts for 60% of the country's GDP.
There was also evidence of a decrease in the rate of private consumption growth in the last quarter of 2022 despite a strengthening consumer confidence index.
The figure for private consumption or the Private Consumption Indicator (PCI), only rose by 2.7% in December 2022 compared to a 10% plus rise in the opening nine months of last year.
This came despite large numbers of foreign tourists to the kingdom who spent an estimated ฿100 billion alone in December 2022.
This means that ordinary Thai workers have been cutting back on consumption and day-to-day spending to make ends meet.
It is a similar story to consumers all over the world, hence the lower demand for the country's exports.
Manufacturing activity predicted to decline in the opening months of 2023 with all eyes on tourist arrivals. Thailand is targeting 22 million this year
There is also evidence from import data in the last three months of 2022 that Thai manufacturing activity may be down in the opening months of 2023 with a 14.7% decline in primary or intermediate goods for manufacturing in December 2022.
Economists agree that the decisive factor for Thailand's economy in 2023 will be the number of foreign tourists who arrive with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) currently predicting 22 million visitors compared to 11.5 million in 2022.
Initial indications from the tourist industry and key players such as Thai Airways are that things are looking up with more demand and significantly more flight routes being opened up to the kingdom.
The emerging question is whether or not elevated inflation levels and lower growth together with higher borrowing costs as interest rates rise in Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States and China will impact the flow of foreign tourists with a travel industry still catering to pent-up demand.
The situation will not be helped by an overpriced baht which may well be a vehicle for speculation by short sellers against the US dollar whose confidence in the currency is underpinned by the kingdom's robust financial system, strong foreign reserves and over 98% of public debt sourced within its own borders.
Tourists arrive at Suvarnabhumi airport on Thursday. (Photo: Somchai Poomlard)
The Thai Hotels Association (THA) has urged the next government to prioritise the tourism industry as a key economic driver, addressing the labour shortage, low level of safety and security, as well as sustainability.
Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, the THA president, said Thai tourism workers are in high demand in many countries where the industry has revived, including spa therapists and cruise workers, as many of them relocated for new jobs.
This situation amplified the labour shortage following the two-year pandemic shutdown, which caused a number of tourism workers to return to their hometowns permanently.
Another challenge is the agreement with Saudi Arabia to allocate Thai workers to the Middle Eastern country, which seeks manpower from Thailand to fill vacancies in the hospitality sector.
"Hotels in major provinces are now competing for both skilled and unskilled labour," said Mrs Marisa.
"As Thailand becomes an aged society with a low birthrate, the industry will likely face an ongoing shortage."
She said Thailand ranked poorly for safety and security as well as environmental sustainability in the World Economic Forum's Travel And Tourism Development Index 2021.
The nation ranked 92nd and 97th, respectively, although its overall position was 36th thanks to high marks for infrastructure and price competitiveness.
"The tourism sector could create an economic multiplier for society at every level, particularly grass roots. We need the new government to prioritise this industry and integrate related work from different ministries to speed up the development process," said Mrs Marisa during the "Economic Drives" forum on Thursday, which gathered candidates for prime minister and representatives from political parties.
In terms of sustainability, she recommended tax cuts and incentives for certified green hotels and green regulations across the whole supply chain.
For example, Singapore provides a sustainability roadmap requiring 60% of hotel rooms to achieve sustainable standards by 2025.
Napas Paorohitya, chief marketing officer at Bumrungrad International Hospital, said Thailand has the potential to be a medical and wellness tourism hub, but challenges remain in terms of value.
Thailand attracted more than 3.5 million tourists for those services in 2019, four times higher than Singapore, which tallied 850,000 visitors.
However, Thailand generated only 43 billion baht that year, 19% higher than Singapore.
Ms Napas said the country must pivot to high-value industries, offering more services in addition to medical check-ups, such as intensity care, customised care and longevity care packages, in order to gain higher margins.
Thailand's four major international airports being expanded to cope with return of foreign tourists
The government is expanding at least four international airports to cope with the return of foreign tourists after the Covid pandemic, a senior government official said on Thursday.
Deputy government spokeswoman Traisulee Taisaranakul said efforts are being speeded up to expand major international airports after the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand predicted that the number of foreign arrivals would reach the pre-Covid level in 2024.
The expansion of the airports are also aimed at coping with the prediction of the International Air Transport Association, the spokeswoman added. She quoted the IATA as predicting around 200 million foreign arrivals in 2031.
Traisulee said the four major airport expansion projects are:
● Suvarnabhumi International Airport Phase 2
Under the project, the construction of the Satellite Airport Terminal – 1 (SAT-1) has been completed and the Transport Ministry will start using the new terminal this year. The SAT-1 terminal will boost the airport's capacity from 45 million passengers a year to 60 million a year.
Traisulee said the airport was also building its third runway, and the construction would be completed in 2024. After the third runway is completed, the airport will be able to receive 94 flights per hour from the current 68 flights per hour.
● Don Mueang International Airport Phase 3
The Cabinet on November 29 last year approved the Phase-3 development. Construction will start this year, and is due to be completed in 2029.
The Phase 3 project involves multiple constructions, including the third terminal, a runway, a new aircraft hangar and a warehouse building.
The airport will also build other basic facilities, including a new carpark building, a new office building, new roads, a new maintenance building, a garbage management zone, a new drainage system, and a fire station.
Traisulee said when the project is completed, the Don Mueang airport would be able to accommodate 40 million passengers a year, from the current 30 million.
● Expansion of the U-Tapao International Airport in Rayong
The expansion will be carried out in four phases and once completed in 2055, the airport will be able to receive 60 million passengers a year.
Traisulee said the first phase would be completed in 2024, after which the airport would be able to accommodate 15.9 million passengers a year.
● Phuket International Airport Phase 2
The project aims to expand passenger capacity from 12.5 million a year to 18 million. The project includes the expansion of the international terminal, and the expansion of aircraft hangars as well as expansion of basic infrastructure.
Traisulee said Airports of Thailand Plc, which runs the airports, is now selecting an advisory firm to set the details of the project.
As part of the preparations for increased international flights, the government has also drafted a new civil aviation master plan, which will be in use until 2037. Traisulee said the Cabinet approved the plan on Tuesday.
The Institute of Marine Science Has Glowing Jellyfish & Daily Dive Shows
The Institute of Marine Science in Bang Saen
Bang Saen is a city known among locals for its pristine beaches. Bangkok dwellers – and Vitamin Sea lovers – often flock to the coastal town to enjoy weekends away from the hustle and bustle of the concrete jungle. But besides getting your tan in on the beach, diving deep into the ocean to admire marine creatures underwater, may require a bit more effort.
That'swhy the Institute of Marine Science – an establishment in Burapha University with a museum and an aquarium filled with all sorts of marine animals – is a great place to visit to gain a greater appreciation for sea life. Since it's officially part of an educational institution, it's also open to people from all walks of life and we'll take you through what to expect below.
The Institute of Marine Science is a hidden aquarium in Burapha University in Bang Saen, Chonburi. The bustling museum acts as an educational hub for people to learn about marine creatures and Thailand's efforts to preserve the habitats of native fish species in our country.
Once you enter the university, look for a fountain with dolphin statues because that'll indicate that you have arrived at the heart of the institute.
Walking into the building, you'll see a ticket counter where you need to pay to enter the aquarium. The admission fees differ for Thai citizens and foreigners; costing ฿80(~USD2) for locals and ฿220(~USD6) for foreigners.
Within the aquarium, there are zones with different kinds of sea animals shown to visitors. For example, here's a spot where you can see cute clownfish swimming around and nipping at plants under LED lights scattered within the tank.
Once you reach this hallway, you might be surprised to see bulky stingrays swimming back and forth among swarms of small fish, not something we can normally see in our daily lives.
Interestingly, one of the most popular spots in the aquarium is this glowing jellyfish exhibition. Here, you'll find many people gazing attentively at these jellyfish; mostly engrossed in taking photos and recording videos. Having said that, we're not too surprised as the jellyfish do look extremely ethereal and beautiful.
At 2.30PM daily, there will be a dive show unfolding at the large tanks. You'll get to spot a diver clad in scuba-diving gear plunge into the fish tank among hundreds of fish, trying to feed them while the rays are swimming around. On the weekends, the institute runs this show twice, the first at 10.30AM and the second round at 2.30PM.
Of course, these pictures are but snapshots of what a live feeding experience could feel like. We're sure that the moment when a diver feeds a stingray will definitely be an impressive scene for many folks.
As for us, we basically feel like taking the plunge ourselves to get closer to these fish. In any case, we'd recommend getting your cameras ready to capture this moment if you do attend a show.
After you're satisfied with the aquarium tour, try going up to the second floor to tour a cosy museum that's home to exhibits imparting knowledge about marine life.
The details and diagrams are presented in both Thai and English, so there's no need to worry about any language barriers. If this sounds interesting to you, carve out some time from your itinerary to explore this area too
Getting to the Institute of Marine Science in Bang Saen
Diving into a deep ocean just to get a glimpse of sea life might sound like a pipe dream for many of us, but that doesn't mean there's no hope you can see marine life at all. The Institute of Marine Science is could be a good pitstop in Thailand if you wish to learn more about different aquatic creatures, or gain a better understanding about conservation efforts in the Land of Smiles.
For the location, the Institute of Marine Science is 2 hours away from Bangkok but less than 10 minutes from Bang Saen Beach. So if you plan to turn up after a day of chilling at the beach, you can get to this place easily. Check out the map we've linked below for more precise directions and let us know what you thought if you've been here before n the comments.
Taxi drivers wait for customers in Bangkok, Thailand, May 29, 2021. Photo by Reuters
Overpriced taxi services have become the main issue of concern among foreign tourists while traveling in Thailand, followed by entry procedures, littering and air pollution, a survey shows.
Taxi services in Thailand received the worst score of 3.5 out of 5, according to the survey conducted by the Tourism Council of Thailand, which polled 200 Western tourists during the final quarter of last year.
Foreign tourists complained that taxi drivers in Thailand often only pick up passengers who agree to pay a fare without using the meter, which means drivers can arbitrarily charge higher prices for their service, the Bangkok Post reported.
In addition to taxi scams, the complicated entry process at Thailand's airports upon arrival is also a major concern for foreign tourists, receiving a score of 3.45.
The problem of littering at many popular tourist sites and air pollution from hazardous fine particulate matter (PM2.5) also received complaints from tourists.
Thailand, Southeast Asia's second largest economy, received 11 million foreign visitors last year thanks to its open visa policy, making its tourism industry among the fastest to recover in the region following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Thai government is targeting 25 million foreign arrivals this year. – VNExpress
Thailand's corruption standing for 2022 an improvement over 2021
Thailand's corruption standing for 2022 improved nine places to 101st, from 110th out of 180 countries in 2021, according to the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International. Thailand is 4th among ASEAN countries.
Secretary-General of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), Niwatchai Kasemmongkol, said that Thailand scored 36 points, compared to 35 points in the 2021.
The world's top performer was Denmark, which scored 90 points, followed by Finland and New Zealand, which scored 87 points. Top performer among Asian countries was Singapore, which was ranked the 4th place globally, with 83 points.
The assessment was based on information from nine sources and Thailand scored more points last year than a year earlier in assessments from the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, from 39 to 43, and the World Economic Forum, from 42 to 45 points, according to Niwatchai.
He said that, from foreign investors' perception, the Thai Government has become more serious in dealing with the problem of bribery and has taken punitive action against corrupt officials.
The government has also reformed the system for approving projects, by cutting bureaucratic red tape and reducing the discretion available to officialss, said Niwatchai.
He said that, from the point of view of the people responsible for the performance assessment, the Thai Government is still unable to tackle corruption in government bureaucracy, with rampant graft among state officials in budget management, conflicts of interests and lax law enforcement.
As far as the NACC is concerned, Niwatchai said that the corruption watchdog has developed information technology and communication systems to support anti-corruption efforts, such as the agency case monitoring system.
He also said that the promotion of public participation will help boost efforts to deal with corruption in the bureaucracy. – Thai PBS
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