Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat officially announced the formation of his coalition government with seven others parties on Monday, about a week after the general election.
He said at a press conference today that it is a historic day because it is the ninth anniversary of the last coup in Thailand. The formation of the government marks a peaceful transition in Thai politics, he said.
All the signatory parties have agreed to govern the country jointly under the following guidelines:
All parties must protect the citizens' rights and their political rights for everyone.
All the parties will work with honesty and if an individual is found to be involved in corruption or malfeasance, they would terminated immediately.
All the parties will work in honour of one another and with sincerity by holding onto the people's interest, not the individual party's.
All the parties have the right to push for additional policies, but they must not contradict the policies defined in this agreement. They can do so through their ministers or the legislative power of their MPs.
Details of the MoU signed by the coalition parties are as follows:
Restoration of democracy, including drafting of a new Constitution by a Constitution Drafting Assembly elected by people as soon as possible.
Reconciliation in society. All coalition parties will jointly push for justice in cases involving politically-related expression through parliamentary mechanisms.
Passing a same-sex marriage bill to guarantee marriage rights for couples of all sexes, while not forcing those who consider same-sex marriage to be against their religion.
Pushing for reform of the bureaucracy, the police, the military and the justice system to be in accordance with democratic principles, by upholding transparent, modern and efficient principles for the utmost benefit of people.
Changing mandatory conscription to voluntary recruitment.
Pushing for decentralisation in terms of mission and budget, so that local authorities can properly and effectively respond to the needs of local people, without corruption.
Jointly pushing for restoration of a sustainability peace in the southern border provinces of Thailand by ensuring the principles of basic human rights, coexistence in a multicultural society, participation of all parties as well as a review of security-related agencies and law enforcement.
Solving corruption by creating a transparent governmental system and culture and enabling public access to the information of every government agency.
Jointly rehabilitating the economy by increasing people's income, reducing inequality and creating a fair economic system.
Overhauling laws that relate to people's livelihoods, removing handicaps for SMEs, increasing GDP growth as well as supporting Thai products to compete in the international market.
Ending monopolies and promoting fair competition in every industry, such as beverages and alcoholic drinks.
Reforming the land ownership and use system by pushing land reform laws, supporting fair land ownership, solving the problem of overlapping forestry and private land.
Reviewing trials that have resulted from policies that took from the people.
Improving the electricity generation structure and price calculation method to decrease people's living costs and create energy stability.
Implementing a new style of budgeting by emphasising the use of Zero-based budgeting
Creating public welfare that takes care of people from birth to old age, by considering suitability and long-term financing burdens.
Solving drug problems urgently, re-criminalising cannabis and having related laws to control and support its uses.
Supporting safe agricultures and livestock, protecting agriculturists' benefits, reducing production capital, supporting marketing and supporting technology access.
Supporting the grouping of the agriculturists for production planning and benefit protection.
Upgrading labour rights to ensure fair employment and wages that are in accordance with the cost of living and economic growth.
Reforming the educational system to upgrade quality and reduce inequality, as well as supporting lifetime learning.
Promoting cooperation using domestic and international mechanisms to solve toxic dust problems, as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve Net Zero as soon as possible.
Restoring Thailand's leadership role in ASEAN and maintaining a political balance between Thailand and powerful countries.
Progressive Movement upset that lèse majesté is not included in MoU
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Progressive Movement secretary-general Piyabutr Saengkanokkul has voiced his disagreement with the exclusion of two key issues, one relating to the monarchy and the other concerning amnesty for political offenders, from the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed yesterday by eight parties agreeing to join a coalition government led by the Move Forward party.
He warned that the inclusion of the wording "the inviolable status of the monarch" in the MoU indicates "a person with a guilty conscience" and it may turn into "a noose around the neck" of the Move Forward party when it proposes a bill to amend the lèse majesté law to the House in the future.
Piyabutr, former secretary-general of the now defunct Future Forward party, predecessor of Move Forward, said in his Facebook post on Monday that, in the past ten years, he has penned several academic articles about the status of the monarch, as stipulated in Section 6 of the Constitution, in comparison with the constitutions of other countries.
He said that the Thai Constitutional Court has interpreted the provision so broadly and beyond the intent of the provision and, hence, it needs to be reviewed to correspond with the principle that "the monarch shall not commit an offence because he does not wield political or administrative powers, but the ministers concerned have the power and shall be held accountable,"
"That is my personal opinion," said Piyabutr adding, however, that he does not think the Move Forward party will touch this provision.
On the amnesty issue, the scholar, who is well known for his anti-monarchy stance, said that the Move Forward party has an obligation to several political prisoners, detainees and suspects, adding that these people are not criminals but are people who share different political opinions from those of state officials.
The amnesty law is the only tool to solve this problem and help these people, said Piyabutr, adding that it is a pity that it was not included in the MoU.
CHONBURI'S Public Health Office said today (May 22) that there were 10,648 new Covid cases and 12 deaths last week (May 14-20) with the majority being the elderly, Sanook.com said.
Of this total 13 were being treated for pneumonia while 19 require oxygen.
People in this province adjacent to Bangkok were urged to strictly follow Covid prevention measures as follows:
– Those who are infected but are either asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms should be treated on an outpatient basis but some may require hospitalisation at doctor's discretion. They are urged to wear a face mask, wash hands frequently and keep appropriate distance from others;
– These preventive measures also apply to the general public who are urged to get their annual vaccination, particularly the elderly and those with underlying diseases who have high risk of death or getting severe symptoms should they get infected. Long Acting Antibody (LAAB) vaccine is available for those suffering from immunodeficiency disorders.
– People suffering from seven chronic diseases, pregnant women, children from six months to four years of age, the elderly over 65 years of age, those suffering from thalassemia or have impaired immunity, those who are overweight either weighing over 100 kilogrammes or have body mass index (BMI) of more than 35 and those who are mentally retarded or cannot help themselves should get both Covid and flu jabs before the rainy season sets in.
People are vaccinated against Covid-19 at the parliament on May 11. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
The number of Covid-19 inpatients continued to increase and fatalities also rose over the past week, when schools reopened, the Department of Disease Control reported on Monday.
The department recorded 2,632 Covid-19 inpatients from May 14 to May 20, up about 12% from 2,356 cases between May 7 and May 13.
The number of inpatients with lung inflammation was at 401 at the end of last week, 24% up from 322 at the end of the previous week.
The number of patients dependent on ventilators rose to 226 last week, 39% up from 163 at the end of the previous week.
Last week there were 64 new fatalities related to the diseases (seven per day on average), 191% up from 22 in the previous week (two per day).
Health authorities earlier predicted cases would rise when the new school term began. The latest figures do not mention schools or students.
Pattaya's most famous thoroughfare isn't as busy as in 2019, but still personifies the resort's fun image cultivated over many years.
Nine and a half million foreign visitors have arrived in Thailand so far this year, according to Thai government spokesman Traisuree Taisaranakul, with three million heading direct to Pattaya. The national economy has benefitted to the tune of US$11 billion with Pattaya contributing around one third of that. The Bank of Thailand says it is confident that there will be 28 million arrivals in the entire calendar year, which compares with 40 million in pre-pandemic 2019.
Thai authorities have developed a number of strategies to maximize the influx. Chinese arrivals nationally have been sluggish, because of a shortage of aircraft and delays in issuing new passports by Beijing authorities, but are expected to increase to multiple flights hourly by the end of the summer. Thai immigration is also simplifying the 15-days visa on arrival for Chinese citizens by permitting paperwork to be completed pre-flight. Meanwhile, the nationals of 60 countries, including the UK, the US, most of mainland Europe and Australia, can extend their 30 days visa exempt permission for a further month without having to leave the country
A spokesperson for the Pattaya Entertainment Collective said night life was more or less back to normal after the pandemic and added there was the additional bonus of cannabis with an obviously blurred distinction between medical and leisure use. The weekends in particular reveal a packed resort with lengthy traffic queues in and around the city center. The main problem for Pattaya employers in the hospitality industry has been finding enough staff, especially in hotels according to the eastern Thailand hoteliers association. Attempts are being made to fill the gap by recruiting more workers from Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos with whom the Thai government has Memoranda of Understanding.
"Tourism will be the key pillar supporting our growth this year," said Thitima Chucherd, an economist at the Siam Commercial Bank. But the threat comes from the May 14 Thai general election. Pro-democracy parties secured the most number of seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, but the votes of the 250 unelected Senators, appointed by the military, will also play a pivotal role on who becomes prime minister.
Although most commentators downplay the prospect of yet another military intervention – it would need to be a strange self-coup as army leaders currently run the country as caretakers – the prospect of a prolonged and bitter parliamentary conflict or an unstable minority government is already worrying investors. "If political tensions spill over into the streets, arrivals growth will slump as in the past two decades," said Krystal Tan from the Australian and New Zealand Banking Group. Still, if all goes well, a new government will be in office by August.
Most Thai voters happy with election results, poll shows
The majority of voters are happy with the results of the May 14 general election and will make the same choices if given a second chance, a recent survey shows.
The National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) poll covered 1,310 people aged 18 and above across the country on May 16-18. The respondents were chosen using a simple random sampling method with 97% accuracy, the pollster added.
When asked what they would do if they had to go to the polling stations again, the respondents said:
• 86.49%: Will vote for the same constituency and party-list MPs
• 6.03%: Will make different choices for both constituency and party-list MPs
• 3.13%: Will choose the same constituency MP
• 2.37%: Will not exercise their right to vote
• 1.98%: Will choose the same party-list MP
Asked if they were happy with the election results in their own constituencies, the respondents said:
• 59.08%: Very happy
• 26.87%: Rather happy
• 8.86%: Rather unhappy
• 5.19%: Not happy at all
Asked if they were happy with the overall results of the election, the respondents said:
Drier-than-average rainy season tipped for this year
Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) workers build a structure to fix a damaged stretch along the bank of Prem Prachakorn canal next to Rama V Road in Dusit district on Friday. The BMA also dredged the canal to prepare for the rainy season. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
The rainy season will officially start on Monday with less rain forecast this year due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, the Meteorological Department announced on Friday.
TMD director-general Chomparee Chompurat said the seasonal climatic change would also see a shift in general wind direction.
According to Ms Chomparee, the El Nino weather phenomenon could mean a dry spell from mid-June to mid-July, leading to water shortages in several agricultural areas.
Rainfall is expected to peak in August and September with one or two tropical storms moving across the North and the Northeast, bringing heavy rain and triggering flash floods, she said.
According to the TMD chief, the rainy season is due to end in the middle of October but rainfall is expected to continue in the southern region, especially on the eastern side, until January next year.
Meanwhile, the Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation said it is preparing for droughts. Department chief Supit Pitaktham said the country has experienced little rain since January, and about 116 million rai of farmland outside the irrigation system faces water shortages.
From May 1-14, there were 1,387 requests for rain-making operations from 459 districts in 64 provinces, including those from the Royal Irrigation Department, to increase water reserves in 70 reservoirs.
Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt said City Hall had drawn a map of flood-prone areas and is well-equipped to handle any flooding.
He expressed concern about possible drought affecting several large public parks under its care, including Benjakitti Park, which requires a particularly large amount of water to maintain.
Mr Chadchart said waste management also needs to be addressed, especially in the outer districts of Sai Mai, Min Buri and Nong Chok, where populations have increased.
Bhumjaithai rejects candidates supporting changes to lese majeste law
Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul thanks a supporter during its party's vote campaign in Bangkok on May 6, 2023. (Photo: Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)
The Bhumjaithai Party, which unofficially secured the third-most House seats, made an announcement stating their refusal to support any prime ministerial candidate or political party seeking to revoke or amend the lese majeste law.
This statement was shared on Bhumjaithai's Facebook page on Wednesday night in response to the Move Forward Party, which nominated its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, as the new prime minister after winning the most House seats in Sunday's general election.
Bhumjaithai based its stance on Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese majeste law.
The party wrote that the stance remained unchanged from what its leader Anutin Charnvirakul had announced earlier.
"The stance is an important principle of the Bhumjaithai Party, which is unchangeable and unnegotiable. The Bhumjaithai Party cannot vote for a prime ministerial candidate from a political party that plans to amend or abolish Section 112 of the Criminal Code," Bhumjaithai wrote.
According to the announcement, the Bhumjaithai Party and its members will not be swayed by demands, threats or pressure to alter their ideals and standpoint. If a government seeking to amend or abolish Section 112 is successfully formed, the party will be prepared to serve as the opposition to monitor the government's performance in the interest of the public and the protection of the important institution.
"Bhumjaithai urges the majority side to uphold the principles of democracy by respecting and listening to the voice of the minority, rather than resorting to threats and pressure to fulfill it's desires."
According to Bhumjaithai's management, more than 5 million people who voted for its candidates believed that Bhumjaithai would be the main political party that adhered to the protection of the nation's important institution.
Meanwhile, Move Forward leader Pita said on Thursday that he was confident of being able to form a government that would be stable and balanced.
Mr Pita added that he was not concerned about any pending cases seeking to disqualify him.
He was speaking at a press conference as part of an alliance of eight political parties worth about 313 lower house seats, short of the 375 votes needed from the 750-member bicameral legislature to vote in a prime minister to form a government after the May 14 general election.
Move Forward Party to Submit 45 Bills for Amendments and New Laws
BANGKOK (NNT) - The Move Forward Party has announced its intention to submit 45 bills for either amendments or new laws once Parliament reconvenes, according to a party executive.
Bencha Saengchantra, an MP representing the Move Forward party list, shared the party's plans in an online post on May 17. The proposed bills cover various areas, including bureaucratic reform and the abolishment of mandatory conscription.
In her post, Bencha categorized the 45 bills into eight groups, outlining their objectives as follows:
1. Political Laws: Move Forward aims to amend relevant laws to allow the establishment of a new charter-drafting assembly, with the goal of crafting a new people-centric constitution. The party also intends to amend the Military Service Act, replacing forced conscription with a voluntary system. Additionally, Move Forward plans to propose a political amnesty bill to address political conflicts since 2006 and work towards bridging Thailand's deep political divide.
2. Laws on Rights and Liberty: The party's core manifesto includes the amendment of laws such as Articles 112 and 116 of the Criminal Code and the Computer Crimes Act. Move Forward will also push for the consideration and enactment of gay marriage legislation within the first 100 days of the new House's term, along with a bill supporting sexual diversity.
3. Bureaucratic Reform Laws: To promote transparency and prevent corruption, Move Forward will introduce a law requiring government agencies to disclose all information and establish an effective anti-corruption system. The party also plans to propose laws that streamline the process of obtaining permissions and licenses from the state, decentralize administrative power and budget, and introduce the election of provincial governors.
4. Land Reform Laws: Move Forward seeks to resolve land disputes between individuals and the state, granting farmers the right to cultivate their land, among other measures.
5. Public Service Laws: The party aims to enhance public services, including water facilities and public transportation.
6. Labor Laws: Relevant laws will be amended to strengthen workers' rights.
7. Economic Laws: Move Forward will push for the enactment of the progressive liquor act, bills to collect taxes on large plots of land and from the wealthy, and an amendment to the Fishery Act to support the livelihoods of local fishermen.
8. Environment Laws: The party plans to enact a climate change bill that sets carbon emission limits, striving for Thailand to achieve a net zero goal by 2050. They also intend to amend laws regarding the transportation of toxic substances.
The party said its proposed bills reflect its commitment to promoting reform and addressing key issues in Thailand. By presenting these bills, the group aims to contribute to the country's development and meet the expectations of its supporters.
Move Forward announces a coalition government with 8 parties and 313 MP seats, nominating Pita as their PM candidate
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Move Forward's leader Pita Limjaroenrat announced on Thursday that his party would work with seven other parties in forming the government coalition, who together have a strength of 313 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives.
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The eight-party coalition comprises Move Forward, Pheu Thai, Thai Sang Thai, Thai Liberal, Prachachart, Fair, Plung Sungkom Mai, and Peu Thai Ruamphalang parties.
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Pita said during the press conference that all parties are required to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), with its details set to be released by Monday.
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He added that he would form a committee to efficiently carry on the jobs of the previous government.
Weekly COVID-19 Situation in Thailand 7-13 May 2023.
Number of confirmed infected cases admitted to hospitals 2,356 (336 per day on average),
Number of fatalities 22 (2 per day on average),
Cumulative infected cases (since 1 January 2023) 12,437,
Cumulative number of fatalities (since 1 January 2023) 320.
source: Department of Disease Control
Sunday's election victory by the Move Forward Party marks a historic shift in Thai politics as the electorate voted for principle and a more progressive approach to politics and government over short-term inducements and the political battles that had dominated and fragmented the kingdom over the last twenty years. Indeed, the election result, if respected in the medium to longer term, has the real potential to see Thailand emerge as a beacon of democracy in Southeast Asia in contrast to a regional shift to authoritarianism. This was the hope expressed by the people behind yesterday's vote. However, opposition is already rising in the Senate, appointed by the former junta, with two senators already declaring they will not support Mr Pita as prime minister with one raising the prospect of his disqualification following an Election Commission probe into his affairs.
On Monday, the leader of the Move Forward Party took the initiative to consolidate his party's election victory by announcing a potential new coalition with Pheu Thai and four other parties with the start of talks to prepare a programme for government. Pita Limjaroenrat said he was ready to become prime minister and was confident that the will of the people would prevail over any attempt to try to elect a minority government by using the short-term power of the Senate. He also asked people not to be concerned about an Election Commission probe that has been opened into allegations that he improperly held shares in a media company in the course of the last parliament. On Monday, two senators said they would refuse to support Mr Pita while reports suggest that there are already moves afoot to thwart the proposed new government before it is even born.
On Monday, the Thai Election Commission confirmed that the Move Forward Party won this Sunday's General Election, returning 151 MPs to the new House of Representatives which it is expected to meet in July.
The leader of the Move Forward Party has already confirmed a six-party coalition which will now set about constructing a programme for government.
The new coalition wil command 309 seats in the House of Representatives giving it a clear majority.
Core of the proposed coalition government is the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties which plan to form a government sometime in August
At the core of the coalition are the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties with 292 seats between them. They will be joined by the Thai Sang Thai Party, the Southern Prachachart Party and the Seri Ruam Thai Party along with the Fair Party which returned one seat.
On Monday, the Election Commission said that it believes that the election was honest and fair but final confirmation of the returns will not take place until sometime in early to mid-July or before the next parliament meets.
By law, the election must be certified and finalised by July 13th next.
August will see a new government formed but that is still a long way off with many potential developments possible between now and then.
It is expected to be early August before a new prime minister and the government is sworn in with Mr Pita Limjaroenrat emerging as the main contender to take over for General Prayut Chan ocha who will remain in office in the interim period.
Pita says he is not concerned about the Election Commission probe but it is already deployed by conservatives to undermine him as the new PM
Asked on Monday if he was concerned about the probe by the Election Commission into his alleged shareholding in a media firm while serving as Bangkok MP, a revelation made last week which led to calls from some political opponents to have not just Mr Pita but the whole Move Forward Party taken out of politics, Mr Pita said he was sanguine about the threat.
He asked the public not to worry about it.
However, there are growing concerns that there will be opposition from pro-government or conservative forces against the Move Forward Party leading the next administration with both General Prayut Chan ocha and General Prawit Wongsuwan remaining tight-lipped in response to its electoral success on Sunday after the results rolled in.
It should also be noted that the pro-government parties did far better in the election than polls had suggested particularly the Bhumjaithai Party and the Palang Pracharat Party although the ability of Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties to secure a coalition with over 300 MPs is also an achievement but not a definitive one given the power remaining until June 2024 under Section 272 of the 2017 Constitution allowing the Senate a say on electing the next prime minister.
Negotiators to forge a new programme for government being selected as parties get down to business quickly to fill a very dangerous vacuum
For now, the parties to the new coalition are selecting negotiators to discuss its programme. In the manifesto of the Move Forward Party, there is a plan to hold a vote on amending the 2017 Constitution via a referendum.
The Move Forward Party leader rightly deduces that the political vacuum must be filled quickly before opposition to the election results mounts from the right.
The Pheu Thai Party is also indicating the need for urgency and open cooperation with its potential political partner in government.
Mr Pita, a technology executive before entering politics as an MP for Bangkok, is also reported to be commencing a series of talks and meetings with representatives of the business community in Thailand and key government officials as he prepares to put together his new administration.
'We would form the government as soon as possible so that there would not be a political and economic vacuum. Please be assured that Move Forward will be fast and meticulous,' Mr Pita said.
Pita warns about forces going against the will of the people who he says have been given his party a mandate to govern after Sunday's election result
Asked about the technical possibility that the outgoing government coalition with 173 seats coming together with the Senate to elect an alternative prime minister and minority government, the Move Forward Party leader said that she was not worried about this as it would be going against the explicit will of the people in the General Election.
He confirmed that he was ready to take on the mantle of prime minister but also suggested that he would also oversee a ministry in the government.
At the same time, he indicated that he was not wedded to the prospect of becoming government leader and was ready to make way for someone who may be more suitable for the position.
Currently, Prime Minister Prayut Chan ocha, the interim Prime Minister, also serves as Minister of Defence.
Lèse-majesté will be a crucial issue for any proposed new government and one which will be used by ultra-conservatives to oppose and ultimately defeat it
A key issue that may provide some initial difficulty for either the formation of the new government and its tenure in office is the proposal by the Move Forward Party to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code on lèse-majesté.
This was always bound to be a lightning rod for Move Forward's political enemies which will soon mobilise to oppose a Move Forward-led government being formed and taking power.
On Monday, Mr Pita said this has not yet been discussed between the parties to the emerging negotiations.
He said what concerned him more was the plight of individuals who have already been charged before the courts and their prospects of receiving a royal pardon.
Election result in Thailand acclaimed worldwide
Around the world, yesterday's election is being hailed as a victory for democracy in Thailand and a chance to put the country on a more progressive and less authoritarian path.
It comes at the same time as Thailand's press rankings over the past few years have also improved making it something of an outlier in Southeast Asia.
The election result, if respected, could see Thailand transformed into a democracy in Southeast Asia which could have implications in the medium to longer terms of inward investment.
The result, clearly, was a rejection of the post-coup government of 2014 and a clear signal that the people want to see a more modern and successful Thailand and a move away from past political struggles.
The vote took many by surprise in that it demonstrated a growing maturity on behalf of the electorate who prioritised reform over cash giveaways and short-term welfare inducements offered by parties on all sides when they jettisoned the Move Forward Party into poll position.
Efforts to defeat Move Forward's ascent to power begin as senators come out to say they will refuse to support Mr Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister
This election also clearly spelt an end to the old political divide caused twenty years ago when former PM Thaksin Shinawatra became the dominant force in Thai politics.
There has been a historic shift in Thailand but it is already facing opposition.
Two senators on Monday including Senator Jadet Insawang questioned plans to amend the lèse-majesté law as simply unacceptable.
He told reporters that he viewed the Move Forward Party's attitude to the monarchy as questionable and could not in good conscience uphold his oath of office by supporting its rise to the government of the kingdom.
The Move Forward Party led by Pita Limjaroenrat appears to have won the most seats in yesterday's general elections. Thai politicians will now enter a period of intense lobbying and speculation as to who will be able to form a coalition government to run the country.
On the face of it, the voting was clear enough. About two thirds of the voting public cast their support for the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai Party and the youth-led Move Forward Party who are semi-allies. According to unofficial results, they will together take around 285 seats of the 500 seat House of Representatives, calculated by a mixture of direct constituency elections and a quaint Thai version of proportional representation.
But the Move Forward Party appears to have won slightly more seats than Pheu Thai in a series of surprise constituency results which means that the Shinawatra-backed MPs will become only the second largest grouping, a huge disappointment for them. Some voters may have deserted Pheu Thai after the exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced his intention of now returning to Thailand, thus raising fears of political instability as he faces jail time for corruption on arrival.
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Both winning parties are non-military and have stated overnight that they can cooperate together. Both are populist, but Move Forward is far more radical with its policies of reforming the lese majeste treason laws and undermining military control by ending recruitment by conscription. There are bound to be significant arguments about who will be the new prime minister and the division of portfolios in the Cabinet. Pheu Thai has been non-committal on matters relating to the monarchy, but has said the matter can anyway be tabled in Parliament.
The outgoing military-backed parties, led by current prime minister general Prayut Chan-o-cha and deputy prime minister general Prawit Wongsuwan attracted less than 20 percent of the voting public. But, together with their erstwhile allies Bhumjaithai, the Democrats and others, they make up a sizeable minority in the new House of Representatives. Moreover, the unelected 250-member Senate, appointed by the current military-backed administration, can also vote in the election of the prime minister which means that the biggest party in the House is not necessarily able to commandeer the top post in government.
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Added to the mix of ambiguity is the fact that Constitution Court is able to disqualify individual MPs or whole parties for election corruption or fraud. There are already dozens of allegations before the Electoral Commission which has the power to pass them on to the Constitution Court. Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward were banned by judicial coups under their earlier names after general elections.
Thai politicians will now enter a period of intense lobbying and speculation. It's even possible that the largest party Move Forward could be shut out of power as Pheu Thai struggles to form a coalition of smaller parties which might be more acceptable to the block vote in the conservative Senate. There could also be attempts by the current administration to continue military-backed rule and form a minority government, relying on support from the Senate. There can be no doubt that the outstanding success of the anti-royalist and anti-Establishment Move Forward in the election – it has for example taken virtually all the seats in Bangkok – has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons.
Congratulations on your success in this election. You now carry with you the weight and expectation of your supporters and the burden of representing the whole country. Your success has been built upon ideals and believing in the democratic process. Long may this continue.
On that note, I would like to ask the MFP for just one thing. Patience.
There is going to be a lot of temptations to create, join, and manage various types of coalitions in the weeks ahead. But there is no pressure, literally none from your supporters, to join with the devil just to form a government that doesn't truly bring change.
The conservative establishment are going to try and cheat you. They are going to try to play with the rigged senate, talk about a minority government, tempt Pheu Thai into a Faustian bargain. Let them. Let them play around with all their various machinations because time and history are on your side.
There is no rush to form a government if it means siding with the devil.
If Pheu Thai chooses to play those games, then they will be done as a party. Don't go that route. If every other party chooses to play the political game and form a government to keep you in the opposition, then take pride in being that opposition.
Because it means when it comes time for the next election, you will win with an outright majority and govern with a full mandate.
This is not to rain on your parade. You should be proud of your accomplishments. We certainly are. But know also that the road to true change is long and it is not worth compromising your ideals just to take a short cut.
The public have until May 17 to register their opinions on whether a proposed departure tax should go ahead.
Under the proposal, 1,000 baht would be collected from each Thai and permanent foreign resident of Thailand who departs by air and 500 baht from those who depart by land or sea.
The tax would be collected when purchasing tickets for overseas trips. Those who fail to pay would pay double the amount plus a monthly interest of 1.5%. Penalties would also include up to six months in jail or a maximum fine of 3,000 baht.
Other countries that impose a tax on outward-bound travel include Australia, China, Japan, and Thailand's neighbors Malaysia, Cambodia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The departure tax in these countries is mainly incorporated in the price of travel fares.
The Thai government has been quick to reassure people that the proposal, which dates from a four-decade-old executive decree, will not necessarily be implemented.
The Revenue Department is now gathering opinions on the proposed tax via its website. Members of the public and organizations have been invited to share their viewpoints until May 17.
What is a departure tax?
A departure tax is effectively a charge levied on foreign travel. The goal is to curb excessive spending by locals when they travel abroad. The proposal's advocates say this would help protect Thailand's balance of payments – the money flowing into and out of the country.
The proposal dates back to a 1983 executive decree, which actually allows for a departure tax of up to 5,000 baht, according to the Revenue Department.
However, under the plan put to the public, the fee has been limited to a more realistic level of 500-1,000 baht. Exemptions would also be granted to certain groups, including monks and Muslims on pilgrimage, and the tax would be refunded within 180 days if travel plans were canceled.
Loud outcry
The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has condemned the proposal, saying the departure tax would restrict the public's freedom to travel and threaten the country's ties with other nations.
"Who will want to do business with us? While we are trying to attract foreigners to Thailand, our government wants to impose a tax that will discourage Thais from traveling overseas," ATTA secretary-general Adith Chairattananon said.
About 1.2 million Thais and foreign residents traveled overseas in 2019, pre-COVID, he said. That number of trips would generate only 1.2 billion baht in departure tax revenue while damaging Thailand's image and hurting locals' ability to travel abroad, expand their horizons, and more, he added.
"The 1.2 billion baht could be generated by just tightening the budget for government agencies' overseas trips," Adith said.
Critics of the proposal have pointed out that they already pay various taxes on overseas trips, including airport tax.
Research by Asia Plus Securities suggests that a departure tax would affect locals' decisions to travel overseas for a limited time only. After that, they will just go ahead with their plans, since the tax would represent only a tiny fraction of their travel budget. Locals spend an average of 30,000 baht on each overseas trip.
Responding to public outcry, the Revenue Department said it was merely doing its duty under the emergency decree by organizing a public poll and had no plans to implement the tax.
Separate 'tourist tax' from June
In addition to the proposed departure tax, a separate tourist tax has been approved by the Cabinet and will be collected from all foreign visitors starting June 1. Those who fly in will have to pay 300 baht each, while those who arriving by land or water will be charged 150 baht. Similar tourist taxes are collected by more than 40 countries worldwide.
Ministry estimates B2tn available for party pledges
The new government will have room to spend at least 2 trillion baht to fulfil its populist campaign pledges, according to a Finance Ministry source who requested anonymity.
It is estimated that more than 500 billion baht may be required to finance the 10,000-baht handouts via digital wallet promised to people aged 16 and older by Pheu Thai Party, which is a leading contender to form a new government.
LIMITATIONS
If the new government wants to borrow money to fund populist policies, it can do so by launching an emergency decree. But the decree issuance has to follow terms and conditions, such being necessary and urgent, with the government unable to secure other sources of funding other than borrowing, said the source.
The current government launched two emergency loan decrees in 2020 and 2021 to allow it to borrow a combined 1.5 trillion baht to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the country.
Any new loans requested by the government are limited by the state debt ceiling set by the Financial and Fiscal Policy Committee of 70% of GDP.
Thailand's public debt outstanding as of March was 10.8 trillion baht, accounting for 61.2% of GDP.
By the end of fiscal 2023, which is the end of September, the Public Debt Management Office forecasts government debt will rise to 61.7% of GDP, leaving room to borrow 8-9% of GDP, worth around 1.5 trillion baht.
REVENUE OPTION
In addition, the new government can use revenue collection to fund campaign proposals in fiscal 2023, as collection is predicted to exceed the state target this year.
In the first six months of fiscal 2023, the government's revenue collection exceeded the target by almost 100 billion baht.
The source said the same result is highly likely in the second half of the year, generating 200 billion baht above the state target for the fiscal year. This revenue could be used to fund new government schemes.
An additional 160 billion baht was allocated by the existing government as expenditure for new projects in the fiscal 2024 budget.
Moreover, Section 28 of the State Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act of 2018 allows a new government to order state-owned financial institutions such as the Government Savings Bank or the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives to fund its projects in advance, with the government reimbursing them later.
The Financial and Fiscal Policy Committee set the ceiling rate for these state banks to fund state projects under Section 28 at 35% of the government's annual total expenditure. This means the banks can fund state projects in fiscal 2023 worth 150 billion baht.
However, the government needs to take into account the stability of its financial institutions if it chooses to pursue this funding channel, the source said.
In fiscal 2022, the government had outstanding debt under Section 28 of 1.04 trillion baht, representing 33.6% of the fiscal budget.
In fiscal 2023, the government set a debt repayment budget under Section 28 worth 1.04 billion baht, representing 3.28% of the expenditure budget.
EXPENDITURES
Government expenditure, particularly the welfare budget for health insurance, social security and pensions, continues to increase. In fiscal 2023, the government allocated 754 billion baht for these items, representing 23.7% of the expenditure budget.
In the past five years, the growth rate of the welfare budget grew 4% per year on average.
Increased government expenditure poses a huge burden on debt repayment, said the source. The medium-term fiscal plan indicates the government's debt repayment budget continues to increase.
In fiscal 2023 and 2024, this budget accounts for 9.63% and 11.5% respectively of the expenditure budget, and is expected to reach 16.2% in fiscal 2028.
In addition, the principal and interest payment budget also increases proportionally with the government's debt. The principal payment budget is 3.14% of annual expenditure in fiscal 2023, then is forecast to remain at 4% through fiscal 2028.
The source said in terms of principal payment, the government may be able to manage using various tools such as rollovers or refinance.
However, the interest payment is required to be paid in full each year.
The interest payment budget also increases annually, comprising 6.49% of the expenditure budget in fiscal 2023, 7.99% in fiscal 2024, then surging to 12.2% in fiscal 2028.
The source said the increasing public debt might not affect government credit as long as budget spending contributes to economic growth.
THE MOVE FORWARD has scored a huge surprise victory in yesterday's (May 14) general election with party leader Pita Limjaroenrat confirming he is ready to run the country as prime minister and put his party's campaign promises to work.
According to unofficial 83% results of the nationwide election reported by the Election Commission, the Move Forward have won 151 MP seats, upsetting the Pheu Thai which had earlier anticipated a landslide victory but eventually secured 141 MP seats.
Out of a total of 500 MPs, consisting of 400 in constituency-based mode and 100 in party-listed mode, the 151 Move Forward MPs include 113 constituency-based MPs and 38 party-listed MPs whilst the 141 Pheu Thai MPs include 111 constituency-based MPs and 30 party-listed MPs.
Pita's party has won all 33 Bangkok constituencies and swept all constituencies of several provinces in all regions of the country including the capital city's neighbouring ones.
The Bhumjaithai under de facto party boss Newin Chidchob has secured 68 MP seats whilst the Palang Pracharath, headed by Prawit Wongsuwan, has won 42 MP seats, and the Ruam Thai Sang Chart under de facto party boss/caretaker prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has gained 37 MP seats.
Pita reconfirmed last night the Move Forward will definitely not join ranks with either the Palang Pracharath or Ruam Thai Sang Chart the leadership of which the Move Forward has invariably viewed as military-installed ones.
"With the uncles, without us. And with us without the uncles," Pita said, citing one of the Move Forward electoral campaign slogans. The uncles referred to Prayut also known as Uncle Tu and Prawit also known as Uncle Pom.
The Move Forward are largely expected to join hands with the Pheu Thai, among other anti-Prayut camps, to set up a coalition government with Pita's party performing as their core.
Pita said an MoU will be signed between the leaderships of all partners of a Move Forward-led coalition which, he said, may as well include the Thai Liberal and Prachachart in days to come.
Pita said the planned MoU is primarily designed to keep all coalition partners committed to implementing their campaign platforms in the course of the people's interests.
Pheu Thai partisan candidates for prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of the de facto party boss/deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Settha Taweesin admitted that the party which has won most of the MP seats in yesterday's election be given the privilege of naming their own partisan candidate for prime minister and becoming core of government.
It remains to be seen whether the Bhumjaithai might possibly join the Move Forward-led coalition though Pita earlier advised that Newin's camp be no longer given the transport and public health portfolios, the major ones which they had enjoyed over the last four years.
Meanwhile, Pita said the setting up of a minority government either with Prawit's or Prayut's camp acting as core would be very unlikely due to a relatively low number of their MPs.
The Palang Pracharath and Ruam Thai Sang Chart bosses are known more or less to exert influence over 250 senators, all of whom had been handpicked by the both of them following the 2014 coup.
Under the coup junta-designed constitution, a partisan contestant for prime minister is obliged to secure yea votes from more than half the total of MPs and senators combined or from at least 376 votes to be successfully named one.
