Thailand's inflation rate is the lowest among the seven ASEAN countries which have already announced their rates, with inflation for the whole year expected to range between 1% and 2%, according to Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director of the Commerce Ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
Based on information from June, he said Thailand's low inflation rate is in line with global inflation, which is steadily falling, and is the lowest compared to Laos, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.
The consumer price index for July is equivalent to 107.82, compared to 107.41 for the same period last year, resulting in a rate increase of only 0.38% year on year. The low inflation rate is attributable to a drop in food prices, such as pork, which has continued for three consecutive months, and energy prices falling for five months in a row, compared to the same period last year.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks for July rose an average of 1.49% year on year. The prices of farm products, such as eggs, rambutan, vegetables, lime, ginger and tomato, however, remain high due to low yields caused by climatic changes.
The prices of non-food products, such as electrical appliances, garments, TVs, washing machines, cell phones, hygienic face masks etc., dropped by 0.38% year on year. In the meantime, power charges, cooking gas prices, public transport fares and personal services, such as hair cutting and hair dressing, for July increased compared to the same period last year.
Poonpong said that the basic inflation rate, excluding fresh food and energy, rose 0.86% year on year and this has been continuing since the beginning of this year. The inflation rate for the first seven months of this year rose 2.19% from the same period last year, which is within the range set by the Fiscal Policy Office.
The consumer price index for July dropped 0.01% from the previous month, in line with the price drop in food and non-alcoholic drinks. The prices of non-good products, however, increase by 0.42% month on month.
The consumer confidence index for July dropped to 53.3 from 56.1 in June, representing a continuing fall for eight consecutive months, due to political uncertainties and the increased prices of benzine and gasohol.
He said, however, that Thai people in general still have confidence in the strength of the Thai economy, thanks to the continuing economic and tourism recovery.
Thai airline Really Cool hopes to start flying in December to regional cities including Singapore
Really Cool Airlines will focus mainly on international routes to avoid competition with well-established domestic carriers.PHOTO: REALLY COOL AIRLINES
BANGKOK – Really Cool Airlines, a newcomer in Thailand's aviation industry, is set to start flying soon after it gets an air operator certificate from the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand in December, its chief executive Patee Sarasin said on Friday.
Mr Patee, 60, added that it had earlier obtained an air operating licence from the agency.
He said the Bangkok-based airline will be marketed as a full-service "lifestyle carrier", aiming to offer a unique experience to passengers between luxury and budget carriers, under the slogan "We Fly the Future".
Really Cool Airlines will operate with three leased Airbus A330 planes with a capacity of more than 300 passengers each.
With an investment of over one billion baht (S$38.6 million), it is aiming for inbound passengers who account for 70 per cent of Thailand's air travellers, Mr Patee said.
It will cover regional routes in the initial stage to such destinations as Singapore, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In 2025, it will fly to Europe.
According to Mr Patee, Really Cool Airlines will focus mainly on international routes to avoid competition with well-established domestic carriers.
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Its parent company, RC Airlines, was founded in March this year with a registered capital of 200 million baht. Mr Patee is the founder and director while the other directors are his friends from other industries.
Mr Patee is a former chief executive of Thai budget carrier Nok Air, from which he quit in 2017 to set up a travel platform company called Really Cool.
He still sees challenges for the airline industry, which was badly damaged by the Covid-19 pandemic and is still making a slow recovery to pre-pandemic levels.
He pointed to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as the collapse of many commercial banks.
He added that his airline is adopting new technologies and innovative ideas to help reduce costs and increase passenger comfort and safety.
Thailand's aviation industry shrank in value from 320 billion baht before the pandemic to 130 billion baht last year although there are signs of continued recovery this year.
There are seven major airlines that control the largest market share – national carrier Thai Airways International, Nok Air, Thai Smile, Thai AirAsia X, Thai Vietjet, Thai Lion Air and Thai Air Asia. THE NATION/ASIA NEWS NETWORK
Of all our stories in the past week, one particular story, indeed basically just a small portion of the overall story, sent shockwaves through the retired ex-pat community and the rumour mill was set on fire.
It isn't the crackdown on motorbike clubs that upset and disturbed many of our readers, leading to various E-mails and messages, but a statement in the article attributed to deputy national police chief General Surachate Hakparn, arguably the most well-known police officer in Thailand and former Chief of Thai Immigration.
The statement and excerpt that shook up many readers is below:
Deputy National Police Chief Pol Gen Surachate Hakparn stated that the gang members tend to favor Thailand due to the lack of strict law enforcement and corrupt officials.
He cited the outdated 1979 Immigration Act, which allows foreigners aged above 50 to easily live in Thailand only if they have 800,000 baht in their bank account or an income certificate with a monthly salary not less than 65,000 baht.
This also tended to be the case of the suspects in Mack's murder.
Due to the existence of these dangerous gangs, aware foreign tourists feel discouraged to visit Pattaya or invest in the Eastern Seaboard, causing huge damage to the country, Pol Gen Surachate said.
Thus, the RTP needs to regain trust from tourists by not only eradicating these gangs but also some Thai officials who clandestinely aid them.
As part of the efforts, Pol Gen Surachate promised that he would propose an amendment to the immigration law, especially concerning retirement visa extensions, through the police chief once a new government takes office. This aims to filter out bad people and make the law truly helpful for investors or someone who innocently want to live in Thailand.
We here at TPN media wanted to take a closer look at these statements after trying to answer many individual comments and messages over the past week or so.
First, as an individual of great influence with both the Royal Thai Immigration and Royal Thai Police, when Mr. Hakparn speaks it is best to listen. He is well known for many reforms and changes, many admittedly unpopular to foreigners, when in charge of Thai Immigration.
Secondly, nothing is set in stone currently. This isn't a case of Mr. Hakparn simply saying we are upping the requirements and making the decision on his own. It will need significant discussion from Parliament and relevant agencies. Yes, some programs like Thailand Elite are changing their requirements individually, but they are essentially completely run by the Thailand Tourism Authority and run as a company with a single shareholder, not a government plan. We aren't going to be touching much on the Elite changes which also seem to be raising costs involved significantly, as these changes affect a much smaller group of people than blanket retirement visa changes.
Third, Thailand currently has only a caretaker government. Since the election in May there has been continued drama and problems over forming a new government and it seems nearly every single day is another legal challenge or delay, like this one we recently covered here. The bottom line is there is currently no Thai Prime Minister and even once this is chosen it will take some time to get the new government formed, ministers in place, and priorities aligned.
Is this going to be something to keep an eye on down the road? Yes, certainly. But worrying and focusing on baseless speculation and proposals that are currently just talk with no concrete changes proposed to the government will only cause you more stress.
TPN media will certainly stay on top of this subject and continue to communicate any concrete proposals and statements from relevant officials in regard to visas and retirement visas. We will also make sure, as a fairly well-read publication in both Thai and English, that the viewpoints of our readers are made clear to decision makers.
For now, however, breathe a bit…any changes are at least six months off and more likely a year, in my opinion. (Not counting elite, again, which is essentially a private company owned by the tourism authority and can make their own independent decisions.)
Have a great weekend everyone.
Adam Judd
Co-owner, TPN Media.
August 5th, 2023
Photos show condos and views retired ex-pats move to Pattaya for.
Latest SAT-1 photos today📷waiting to activate this September!! ️
Photo of the comparison of the 1st secondary plane (SAT-1) of Suvarnabhumi Airport, which was taken today (2 August 2566)🛫
It can be seen that the outer structure, including the surrounding area(driveway/taxiway and carpark/apron) is almost 100% completed✅ and the aerial bridge(Ivory/aerobridge) has been installed.
Earlier, at Suvarnabhumi Airport, Ltd. Thai airport has disclosed to the media that SAT-1 will be activated in September 2566 or next month. (Reference from Thailand on 10 June 2566)📰
Second PM vote postponed by House Speaker
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Tomorrow's scheduled vote to select a new prime minister was postponed by House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor on Thursday.
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The speaker said the process would have to wait for the Constitutional Court's ruling on Move Forward's petition opposing a parliamentary resolution to block its leader Pita Limcharoenrat's renomination as PM candidate.
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The verdict is expected to be issued on the morning of August 16.
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#ThailandNews #PMvote #PitaLimcharoenrat #Thaipolitics
The Move Forward is ready to move to the opposition to ensure that neither the Palang Pracharath Party or the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party are in the next government coalition, a MFP MP told Thai Enquirer on Wednesday.
Despite taking the lead in forming the government, the Pheu Thai Party have experienced difficulties due to Move Forward Party's electoral promise to amend the lese-majeste laws and the refusal of the senate and more conservative parties to side with them while MFP were in the coalition.
The Pheu Thai Party, according to reports, considered many options including inviting PPRP or RTSC to join them in government. This included publicly inviting members of both parties to PT headquarters for talks.
According to a Move Forward MP, who commented on condition of anonymity, negotiations are ongoing between MFP and PT to ensure that neither party backing former coup leaders Prayut Chan-ocha and Prawit Wongsuwan are in government.
"We are ready to sacrifice our position even though we won the most number of seats and move to the opposition if it means not having the two generals in government," said the MFP parliamentarian.
"We are willing to move to the opposition and still vote for the PT prime minister candidate if that means we end the power of the senate and the two generals now," he said.
It remains to be seen whether MFP's move to the opposition would pave the way for a Pheu Thai Prime Minister with several senators still publicly voicing that they would only vote for a Bhumjai Thai candidate or Prawit Wongsuwan.
It would also mean an unpalatable government coalition consisting of Pheu Thai, Bhumjai Thai, and the Democrat as the key principles parties.
BREAKING: Pheu Thai demands Move Forward leave coalition
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The Pheu Thai Party on Wednesday demanded that Move Forward leave its coalition after the election winner refused to withdraw its policy to amend the lese majeste law, according to local reports.
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The move came as Pheu Thai met with Move Forward in a bid to overcome obstacles the coalition faces in forming a new government.
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The memorandum of understanding signed by the eight-party coalition will reportedly now be revoked, paving the way for Pheu Thai from a government with support from the Senate and outgoing coalition parties.
Police general Surachate Hakparn, former head of the immigration bureau, wants to reform retirement visa rules to help drive out foreign criminal gangs such as Pattaya's notorious Outlaws Motorcycle Club.
Thailand's best known crime cracker, police general Surachate Hakparn, has openly stated that one year retirement visas and extensions of stay are plagued by out-of-date regulations and corrupt practices. In an interview with the Bangkok Post, the deputy national police chief said that the requirement to have 800,000 baht in a Thai bank, or its equivalent in annual foreign remittances, was too low as it failed to screen quality applicants. Police general Surachate added that "window dressing" of applicants' bank accounts was a serious problem as visa agents and even some immigration officers colluded by providing short-term "loans".
He continued that he would propose to the new Thai Cabinet that the 1979 immigration act, which still governs some visa practices, be replaced. Police general Surachate did not detail his policy recommendations for retirement visa extensions apart from emphasizing that the entry bar was set too low and was too easily circumvented. The context of his interview was the all-importance of getting rid of foreign motorbike gangs plaguing Pattaya, Phuket and Koh Samui in particular. Sociologists call this approach "deviancy amplification" as it highlights one particular criminal issue in order to justify policy action against a much wider group in society.
Police general Surachate's observations have struck a chord as he is a former commander of both the tourist police division and, for a short period, the immigration bureau in 2018-19. In the past few years, there have been occasional attempts to toughen the bureaucracy for retirees such as introducing compulsory medical insurance for some visas and extensions – notably the "O/A" retiree option initially issued by a Thai embassy – and by checking bank books three months after the granting of an annual extension. But the efforts were largely non-consequential.
Although there are several visas suitable for single or retired retirees including Elite, Long Term Residence and Spouse options, the annually renewable retirement visa issued by the immigration bureau is far and away the most popular owing to its cheapness and easy availability for foreigners over 50 years. But it will likely be many months before policy revisions, if any, appear in the public forum. Concerns are already being raised about "the baby being thrown out with the bath water". Most Thai retirees are elderly men 65-90-plus with no interest in joining a foreign mafia or even boarding a motorbike. Except perhaps to go to the pub.
Thailand Elite offers perks, such as fast track airport services and free health checkups, to some privileged members as well as multiple entry to all subscribers.
The Thai Elite visa, which offers multiple-entry stays between five and 20 years, will totally replace its current packages on October 1 2023. Founded by then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2003, Thailand Privilege Card Company is wholly owned by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. But a new senior management team at Elite has decided to introduce unprecedented changes.
All new applications for Elite must be made by September 15 under the existing application rules: after that it will be too late. Current holders of the popular Elite Easy Access – a five year visa available for as cash payment of 600,000 baht – have until August 15 to transfer to a longer Elite visa, usually for 20 years: after that it will be also be too late.
No official announcement has yet been made to detail what the new October 1 Elite visa packages look like. Enrolment and renewal fees are likely to rise as the principle of Elite has always been to attract high spenders, wealthy expats and global citizens. The number of packages, some of which include deals for expat families as well as individuals, may well be reduced or combined.
Scrutiny of application details will almost certainly be intensified. Currently, files are checked against the Thai immigration database and information held by Thai embassies abroad. This referral might be extended to Interpol after it was found necessary to cancel some Elite members who were involved in "grey" businesses or fraudulent or criminal international activity. Other memberships have been refused to some Elite holders whose original visas were for study or voluntary work – sometimes dubiously issued for untraceable cash during the Covid pandemic.
Membership of Elite programs stultified in the few thousand members for many years, but zoomed to over 20,000 in 2022 and is now thought to be nearing 30,000. Well over one third of recent applications are from Chinese citizens, but Thai MPs and tourist authorities have both complained publicly about abuses. For example, visa agents in Chinese cities have been offering under-the-table Elite visas in return for mammoth cash sums. Some abuses have been linked to corruption in Thai immigration and disreputable language schools enrolling absentee learners.
Clarification is also needed on regular working in Thailand by Elite holders. Elite does not offer work permits as part of any deal, although one program Flexible Plus has offered access to Department of Labour permits in return for a US$1 million investment in property, the stock exchange or companies. Government policy does allow non-work permit holders to attend occasional business meetings or organize events, but the parameters are ambiguous and largely untested. The Thailand Privilege Card Company has promised to explain the brand new framework well in advance of the October 1inauguration.
Thailand could face a "lost year" if no government formed soon
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Thailand could face a "lost year" if the country delays the process of forming a new government until May next year, according to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanavath Phonvichai, the president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
"Lost year" is a term coined to refer to a long period of sluggish economic growth and declining investment.
Dr. Thanawat said that the time being spent on forming a new government is affecting the economy, especially for next year. If the new government is formed in August, the country should have a new cabinet and the government policy statement by September.
He explained that, according to the party's budget policy, budgeting under the leadership of Pheu Thai can be finalised sooner than under Move Forward, which has a zero-based budgeting policy, which requires all expenses to be justified and approved in each new budget period.
Waiting for another 10 months to form a new government will gravely affect the economy. People's confidence in the state of the economy will be lost. When investors have no idea what the country's policy will be for that long, everything pauses and the economy slows down more and more.
Another challenge the country is facing is drought, caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon. If the country does not prepare enough and is not proactive, the agricultural sector will be badly affected. Farmers will get into deeper debt and the export sector will not recover, due to the lack of government support.
Dr. Thanawat also said that the UTCC expects Thailand's economy this year to expand by 3.1-3.5%. The main driver is tourism, with the country expected to welcome at least 25 million visitors by the end of the year. If there are more protests and rallies, however, that number could dwindle.
Political experts list reasons why Thaksin's return not likely
Three political "gurus" – a whistleblower, a former red-shirt leader and a lawyer – have all expressed doubts about former PM Thaksin Shinawatra returning on August 10.
Jatuporn Prompan, a former leader of the red-shirt movement, said in a Facebook Live session on Sunday that he does not believe Thaksin is ready to serve his jail terms. Hence, he said, he expects the fugitive former PM to cancel his plan to return on August 10.
Read more:
https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40029812
There are many routes to becoming a retired expat in Thailand.
Thailand regularly appears in the top ten destinations chosen by foreigners wanting to retire abroad. Unlike other south east Asian countries, Thailand does not offer a retiree visa as such but a number of choices aimed specifically or partially at this market.
Non-immigrant "O" visa conversion This is the most popular route at present. A foreigner aged at least 50 enters the country with a visa exempt or tourist visa (30 or 60 days) and applies at local immigration to convert it to a three months non-immigrant "O" and thence to an annual extension of stay based on retirement. Typically, the financial requirement is 800,000 baht in a Thai bank or proof of monthly transfers to Thailand of at least 65,000 baht. The detailed bureaucracy varies in immigration offices nationwide and several embassies now refuse to get involved in certifying the creditworthiness of their own nationals.
One big attraction for many of the non-immigrant "O" route is that, to date, medical insurance is not required and the paperwork is fairly straightforward. A foreigner with a foreign spouse will be treated as separate individuals and both must provide the financial guarantee. When leaving the country, re-entry permits must be obtained and the 90 days address reporting is in play. Applicants who are short of cash at the time of application or annual renewal are not forbidden from "borrowing" cash from third parties as the check is only on the amounts in the applicant's bank book. The cost of the visa is 1,900 baht (US$60) assuming no extras have been accumulated along the way.
Non-immigrant "O/A" long stay visa This is a 12 months visa offered by Thai embassies abroad to retiree applicants, with or without a multiple entry built in. The financial requirements are similar to the "O" extension of stay, but there are additional documents such as a medical certificate illustrating freedom from certain diseases. The visa can be renewed annually at Thai immigration offices. The big problem with the O/A option is that comprehensive medical insurance is required from day one and continues with every annual extension. The Thai Cabinet authorized an annual sum of US$100,000 or 3 million baht. Many retirees have tried to get rid of their O/A and change to "O" extension of stay, but this cannot be done without leaving the country and altering visa status overseas. The cost of OA annually is 1,900 baht (US$60) assuming all the documentation is in order.
Beaches loom large in most people's expectations of retirement.
"O/X" ten year retiree visa This little-known option was introduced in late 2016 and offered a ten year multiple entry stay (actually 5×2 years) to retirees aged at least 50 in 14 countries including UK, US, Australia and some EU states. It was available at Thai embassies abroad and at immigration offices in Thailand. The visa never became airborne as the bureaucracy was complex, requiring a crime-free certificate from the home country and an investment of 3 million baht in a Thai bank. Options were available to include spouses and dependent children in the visa allocation. However, the visa did specify that working as a volunteer was OK although no detail was set out. Neither the immigration bureau nor the Thai Cabinet ever issued updates on the visa which is usually assumed to have been stillborn. The fee was 10,000 baht.
The Elite visa Current enrolments are said to be around 30,000 all told. The Elite visa is not specifically aimed at retirees and there are no age bars. Although there are several variants, the most popular option is the five years, multi-entry choice currently available for a one-off payment of 600,000 baht and renewable. 10 and 20 year options with family guarantees are also available. Attractions for the retiree market include no need for medical insurance and no requirement to show updated bank account details every year. The visa also includes some special privileges such as fast-track at Thai airports which has been favorably reported by customers, particularly in the past year or so.
Long Term Residence Introduced in 2022 by the Board of Investment, the LTR is a 10 year open visa designed to attract high spenders and investors from overseas. The four categories do include one specifically aimed at retirees over 50 which has so far attracted over 1,000 initial applications (32 percent of the total). The wealthy pensioner is expected to show a substantial regular income as well as evidence of investment such as Thai property or Thai bonds. All LTR applicants must show medical insurance. The overall idea is to encourage settlement by foreign millionaires. The LTR has not attracted the international interest originally anticipated and is perhaps best suited to economic experts and investors keen to take advantage of generous tax breaks. The enrolment fee is 50,000 baht and reporting to immigration is once a year rather than three-monthly.
Conclusions For retirees, the cheapest and most flexible option is the annual extension of stay, although the Elite visa with its initial down payment and no further financial checks is increasingly being seen in a favorable light. The LTR and the stillborn "O/X" both suffer from complex enrolment bureaucracy and neither offers significant advantages to foreign retirees. None of the visas avoid the need for a work permit for regular employment, although side issues such as being a member of a condominium committee or helping to organize occasional sports or entertainment activities are no longer seen as breaches of the alien labour act. The biggest unknown is the future of medical insurance as a compulsory element in applications. At present, the most popular routes for retirees aged over 50 – the non immigrant "O" and Elite choices – have no such requirement. If that policy was changed and enforced, the proverbial cat would certainly appear amongst the pigeons. Older retirees are the expats whom insurance companies most want to avoid.
Fears that the petition accepted by the Constitutional Court last Wednesday relating to Article 112 of the Criminal Code and Section 49 of the 2017 Constitution could see the Move Forward Party dissolved. Thai politics is suspended as long as this case is left undecided and if the petition is upheld, the current political equation may be shattered overnight if the Move Forward Party is dissolved and its leadership banned from politics. It's the elephant in the room threatening to unleash more turmoil.
On Monday, a group of Thai senators announced that they would oppose the renomination of Mr Pita Limjaroenrat to parliament as Prime Minister on Wednesday. The move comes as concerns also grow about the potential intervention of the Constitutional Court on the same day. The court has a petition before it which could ultimately see the Move Forward Party dissolved. The week is expected to see significant development in the political arena with all the signs pointing towards a plot by conservative elements to derail the radical democratic agenda of the Move Forward Party ushered in by the May 14th General Election result and install a government which includes elements of the outgoing regime as a safer, more mature alternative for the next four years, a long time in Thai politics.
Thailand has entered a second week of an emerging power play between democratic forces and more conservative elements within the political firmament which are intent not only on blocking Mr Pita Limjaroenrat from becoming Prime Minister but bringing about a government involving some of the political parties linked with the outgoing cabinet.
It is a struggle that became more apparent on Thursday when the nomination of Mr Pita Limjaroenrat was defeated in a joint sitting of Parliament with strong opposition to the Move Forward Party emerging from more conservative parties in the House of Representatives and influential senators in the upper house.
Petition accepted by the Constitutional Court under Article 49 of the 2017 Constitution saying Move Forward Party seeks to undermine the state
As the eight-party coalition including the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties, met on Monday to discuss tactics, as it prepares to re-nominate Mr Pita on Wednesday, the politicians involved find themselves operating in an environment that is highly uncertain because of the possibility of a dramatic intervention on Wednesday by Thailand's Constitutional Court.
The court, last Wednesday, took up two petitions, one concerning Mr Pita and his eligibility for public office because of shares in the defunct media company iTV, and the other, perhaps more significant petition, one taken directly from a member of the public, lawyer Theerayut Suwankesorn, a complaint pertaining to Section 49 of the Constitution.
It argues, simply, that the more radical party's attempts to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code dealing with lèse-majesté could be construed as an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.
A judgement upholding the petition could be a shattering blow to the present coalition and political equation with the Move Forward Party dissolved
Any decision by the Constitutional Court to affirm or uphold this petition could have immediate and far-reaching implications for politics in Thailand as it conceivably could lead to the disbanding of the Move Forward Party either this week or at some point in the immediate future.
The dissolution of political parties does not happen in nearly all healthy democratic countries. However, it is the law and is nothing new in Thailand.
It occurs regularly in the kingdom but there have been several significant occasions in recent history such as in December 2008 when the Constitutional Court dissolved the ruling People's Power Party ushering in the Democrat-led government of Abhisit Vejjajiva on December 2nd 2008.
Curiously, the defence minister in that new government was General Prawit Wongsuwan, the current Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Palang Pracharat Party, who is reported to have quite a powerful influence over members of the current Senate.
People's Power Party was dissolved in 2008 after winning the election decisively a year earlier in 2007 leaving power to the rump of that parliament
The People's Power Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court over allegations of electoral fraud in association with other parties in the December 2007 General Election in which it won power by winning 233 seats out of 480 in parliament.
Another significant dissolution of a political party occurred in February 2020 when the Constitutional Court dissolved the Future Forward Party which had come third in the March 2019 General Election.
That party was dissolved after it was found it received ฿191.3 million in illegal campaign support linked with its leader Mr Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit who was also barred from politics for 10 years along with other key members of Future Forward who went on to form the Progressive Movement which is seen as a guiding force for the current Move Forward Party and its efforts to form a new government on what is seen in Thai politics as more radical lines.
Open and fiery debate on Article 112 in parliament last Thursday shocked many analysts and observers as such matters were not openly discussed before
One of the key changes that emerged in Thursday's fiery debate in parliament was the open and free exchange of views, although quite abrasive at times, that occurred related to Article 112 of the Criminal Code on lèse-majesté, a subject that was up to recently not aired or discussed in such a robust manner by politicians at all.
The debate saw Move Forward call for wider reform of Thailand's defamation laws which now allow people to be charged both under civil and criminal legal provisions.
The determination shown by the Move Forward Party to pursue its policy platform in which it has promised to reform Article 112 has surprised and also disturbed many within its political alliance who are more at home or comfortable with the more accepted view in political circles that amending the law should not be either discussed or proceeded with.
It is notable that in the programme for government agreed among the eight-party coalition behind Mr Pita, the proposed new government has not committed itself to making any change to Article 112.
Article 112 divides the coalition and has been used effectively by conservatives to isolate Move Forward in politics and parliament since the election result
It is an issue that has created division not only in Parliament but also between the Move Forward Party and its coalition partners, one that is being exploited by conservative elements and which may be used as justification for political compromises which may have to be made if the Move Forward Party is shortly taken out of Thai politics or the political equation.
It is something that has only been addressed obliquely to politicians this week but is, in fact, the elephant in the room as the end round of battle is joined between the old and new Thailand in the political arena.
Such a development would be not just a bombshell in the current political environment but an earthquake.
But, as we have seen in 2008 and 2020, this can happen in the kingdom with its minefield of electoral and constitutional provisions and courts armed with strong precedents for intervention.
2008 dissolution of People's Power Party led directly to the violent and deadly Bangkok street protest in 2010 in which over 85 people were killed
The 2008 dissolution of the People's Power Party in December that year led to the collapse of the government of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, the brother-in-law of former Thai Rak Thai Party Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Pheu Thai Party Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
This court decision subsequently led to violent street protests in Thailand culminating in very serious disturbances in Bangkok in 2010 which were suppressed in a government-ordered crackdown by the Royal Thai Army after law and order was threatened in the capital.
This turned out to be one of the most dangerous moments in recent Thai political history and the ongoing political conflict that has arisen in the kingdom since 2005.
In that crackdown, in mid-April and from the 13th to the 19th of May 2010, over 85 people were killed including some members of the security forces and two foreigners.
The dangerous situation flared from protests which occupied part of the capital headed by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), calling for the removal of the Democrat Party-led government of Prime Minister Abhisit Veshava.
This government arose in the immediate aftermath of the disbandment of the People's Power Party and from the rump of MPs in parliament left in its wake.
Senator Somchai Sawangkarn bristles at online criticism and warns of criminal action against offenders. He will oppose a second nomination of Pita
On Monday, in Bangkok, Senator Somchai Sawangkarn, Chairman of the Senate Standing Committee on Human Rights, Rights and Liberties and Consumer Protection, who emerged last Thursday as a key voice in the Upper House against Mr Pita as Prime Minister, and who has threatened this week to take legal action against online critics who he says have targeted him and his family, came forward to question whether Mr Pita Limjaroenrat can be nominated again on Wednesday because of parliamentary regulations.
He referred to Regulation number 41 which prohibits a motion being debated for a second time in the same session of Parliament. Sources within Pheu Thai and other parties counter that the rule does not apply to nominations to particular roles but to bills and laws.
On Monday, Senator Somchai continued to express frustration at online commentary from the public and what he has termed threats against him and his family.
He warned that he and other senators would fight such activity with both civil proceedings and criminal prosecutions except for minor comments or those within the bounds of civil discourse.
Senator Somchai said that those hiding behind anonymity online can be tracked down by what he referred to as state tools taken to mean surveillance used by Thailand's security services in monitoring online social media commentary.
Taking the matter up with Parliament President
The Senator said he would discuss the matter on Tuesday with the Speaker of the National Assembly and Parliament President, Mr Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, who he understood, was consulting with whips in the Senate and the House of Representatives before the joint parliamentary session.
'If on July 19 Mr Pita is re-nominated for the post, there will certainly be a debate as to whether this can be done, for fear that it may be against the law. If Mr Pita is endorsed, a petition over the legality of his appointment will be made,' Senator Somchai told reporters. 'In my opinion, the first nomination for Mr Pita to be Prime Minister has been rejected. Only the nomination of a new candidate can be considered a new motion.'
Senator Somchai was supported by other senators, in voicing his concern on this matter, including Senator Seree Suwanpanont as they were interviewed by reporters.
Senator Kittisak Rattanawaraha also said he agreed but used the occasion to plead with the Move Forward Party to stand down from its position concerning Article 112 of the Criminal Code on lèse-majesté.
Pita and Move Forward Party ready to give way on Thursday to a Pheu Thai nominee widely predicted to be Mr Srettha Thavisin, the former property mogul
Mr Pita, on Friday, made an announcement online in which he suggested that if his nomination is not successful on Wednesday that the eight-party coalition may nominate someone from another second vote scheduled for Thursday, July 20th.
It is widely thought that this person will be Pheu Thai Party prime ministerial nominee Srettha Thavisin.
On Monday, the former property tycoon and respected businessman told reporters that he is still very concerned about the deadlock that developed last week and the ongoing political uncertainty which he said was hurting the country's ability to attract inward investment and would ultimately end in Thailand losing jobs and key projects to its competitors, in a very challenging economic climate.
Move Forward Party committed to Article 112 reform and keeping its promise to the voters as a matter of principle. People are the 'boss' says List MP
In the meantime, the Move Forward Party, through various sources, has restated its commitment to reforming Article 112 but has pointed to the fact that such reform would be subject to the approval of the House of Representatives and would be a slow parliamentary process that has no guarantee of success because of opposition from other parties, even those within its eight party coalition, to its proposals.
However, MPs for the party say they must be seen to be honest with the public and standing by its electoral platform.
'If we break our promises in order to ascend to power, the people who are the boss and have been on our side will abandon and even curse us,' Move Forward Party Party List MP Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn wrote on social media this weekend.
Public opinion solidly behind Move Forward and its efforts to bring about the government which was seen as the 'will of the people' after May 14th
Concerns about the prospect of political instability are rising with spontaneous protests, including a car rally on Sunday led by veteran protester and human rights lawyer Arnon Nampa, which seemed to have strong support from the public.
A NIDA opinion poll, published on Sunday, showed that 43.21% of the Thai public believe that Mr Pita should be continuously re-nominated as Prime Minister until his candidacy is accepted by parliament.
A further 20.69% of people were in favour of Move Forward backing down on its more controversial policies such as Article 112.
The poll showed that 7.94% were in favour of the Move Forward Party alliance, bringing members of the outgoing government into its ranks to form a more stable government.
Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra is still more popular than Srettha Thavisin but Mr Srettha is viewed by senators as a more experienced and suitable choice
Nevertheless, the poll showed that only 2.67% of people thought that the Pheu Thai Party should break its alliance with Move Forward to form a government of convenience.
Significantly also, the poll showed that more people supported the nomination by Pheu Thai of Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the prime ministerial nominee with 38.55% of people.
Sources in the Senate and among more seasoned politicians have suggested that Ms Paetongtarn lacks experience and is too young for the role, while 35.04% supported Mr Srettha Thavisin.
Only 5.42% support General Prawit Wongsuwan who is not to be underestimated with his influence within the traditional political parties and the Senate
Only 5.42% of people supported the possible nomination and candidacy of General Prawit Wongsuwan for the post of prime minister. Yet that nomination is expected to be made this week by the Palang Pracharat Party.
Conservative sources have suggested that it is conceivable that General Prawit could lead a coalition, eventually involving the Pheu Thai Party, particularly if the Move Forward party were to be disbanded.
However, over the weekend, despite sources within Pheu Thai pointing to the potential danger of General Prawit mustering support from the existing government parties and those opposed to the Move Forward Party nominee Mr Pita to spring a surprise move to secure the job as Prime Minister, they ruled out the possibility of such a minority government at this point.
All this, of course, could change quite dramatically if the Move Forward Party is dissolved.
Until May 2024, General Prawit may be able to muster a large number of members of the upper house or senate, where he is known and indeed has claimed to have influence, in the election of a prime minister.
Danger of yet another unpopular government
For now, it is thought the chances of a minority government emerging from the parties linked with the outgoing coalition who have been rejected by the public were slim to none according to Pheu Thai's latest assessment.
Nevertheless, at the beginning of this week, nothing is clear about who may be prime minister at the end of it.
But one thing does come into focus and that is that if the Move Forward Party is removed from the political equation, Thailand will be left with the distinct possibility of another unpopular government being foisted upon the people and a widening of the division that was created in the aftermath of the 2006 coup which ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra rather than what was promised after the May 14th General Election, a new dawn for democratic governance in the country.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) anticipates a significant surge in domestic tourism and hotel occupancy during Thailand's latest long holiday period. The holiday, which begins on July 28, to celebrate His Majesty the King's birthday and continues until August 2, is expected to generate approximately 1.66 billion baht in domestic tourism revenue from nearly 5 million trips made by Thai travelers.
To further boost domestic travel, the caretaker government declared July 31 as an additional public holiday, granting Thais more time to visit their hometowns and engage in leisure activities.
TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn highlighted that the last-minute announcement of the extra holiday would likely prompt many Thai travelers to opt for domestic trips instead of planning overseas excursions. TAT estimates that during the extended break, Thais will embark on around 4.96 million trips, leading to an average hotel occupancy rate of 63%.
Provinces in the central and northeastern regions are expected to witness the highest number of visitors, with hotels in the eastern region projecting up to 68% occupancy. However, the southern region might experience fewer visitors due to the closure of several maritime national parks during the rainy season for safety reasons and to allow nature to recover.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce has a positive outlook on the economic impact of the long weekend, estimating that approximately 5-7 billion baht will be circulated during this period. Sanan Angubolkul, the chamber's chairman, expressed confidence that the extra public holiday would generally benefit the country.
Sanan noted, however, that businesses might face additional costs, such as overtime payments for employees working during the holiday period. Sanan suggested that the government should have announced the extra holiday earlier to give businesses ample time to plan and prepare.
Thai parliamentary roadblock paves way for return of outgoing coalition govt
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Ongoing efforts to form a new government after the May 14 general election have hit a roadblock – an impasse that may pave the way for the return of the outgoing coalition, analysts say.
The eight-party coalition has failed to gather enough parliamentary votes for its prime ministerial candidate even after the election-winning Move Forward with 151 MPs stepped aside to allow runner-up Pheu Thai (141 MPs) to take the lead. Parties outside the coalition have refused to work with Move Forward due to ideological differences.
Pheu Thai leaders met with counterparts from five parties in the outgoing coalition government over the past weekend to "seek their advice on a way out for the country". But leaders of Bhumjaithai (71 MPs), Palang Pracharath (40), United Thai Nation (36), and Chartthaipattana (10) stated after their separate meetings with Pheu Thai that they would not join a government coalition that included Move Forward as they opposed its policy for reform of Article 112 of the Penal Code or the lese majeste law. Chart Pattana Kla (two MPs) said it would work with Move Forward on condition that Article 112 was left unchanged.
Meanwhile, Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew unexpectedly suggested on Monday that the election's third-placed party Bhumjaithai should be allowed to try forming a new government. "Now that Pheu Thai has failed and run out of options, the baton should be passed to the third largest party," he said.
Cholnan noted that Bhumjaithai's rival 10-party alliance commands 188 MPs, more than either Move Forward or Pheu Thai alone.
Political stalemate
Observers say that while Pheu Thai seems to be hinting that Move Forward is the problem and should leave, the latter has opted to insist on its place in the eight-party coalition. This stalemate may leave Pheu Thai with no choice but to leave the alliance and form a new government with the 188 MPs from the outgoing coalition, they add.
The analysts reckon that in this scenario, Palang Pracharath leader General Prawit Wongsuwan or Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul has a strong chance of becoming the next prime minister.
Yuthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University (STOU), said the 312-MP eight-party coalition ran into trouble when it failed to win votes for its PM candidate from the 188-MP group and most of the 250 senators.
Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat secured 324 votes and only 13 from senators, meaning he fell well short of the 376 majority required in the parliamentary vote by 500 MPs and 250 senators.
"In this situation, either Prawit or Anutin could become prime minister," Yuthaporn said.
He pointed out that Prawit could count on support from senators and the 188 MPs in the outgoing coalition, with additional backing from many Pheu Thai MPs and other dissidents in the Move Forward-led alliance.
Yuthaporn believes Pheu Thai's commitment to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the eight parties post-election was voided after Pita failed to a secure majority vote in Parliament and handed over the right to form the next government to Pheu Thai.
"Pheu Thai should now have the right to select partners [for a new coalition]," the analyst said.
Lack of courage
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, agreed that the leaders of Bhumjaithai and Palang Pracharath have a good chance of forming the next government.
But he is convinced that despite its meetings with five parties over the weekend, Pheu Thai won't dare tear up its MoU with the Move Forward coalition for fear of the backlash from voters that this would trigger.
However, if Pheu Thai nominates any of its three PM candidates for a parliamentary vote, they would fail to secure majority support as long as Move Forward remains in its coalition, the analyst added.
The ball would then likely be passed to the third-largest party Bhumjaithai and fourth-largest Palang Pracharath.
"This deal would benefit the elites most," Olarn said, referring to the military-royalist-business establishment. "It paves the way for Prawit and Pheu Thai to gain political power together."
He expects that between 70 and 80 Pheu Thai MPs, mainly from political family fiefdoms, would vote for the 188-MP coalition and give it a simple majority in the 500-MP House of Representatives whenever required.
The analyst said that dissident Pheu Thai MPs – most of whom defected from Palang Pracharath before the last election – might end up being expelled from Pheu Thai and rejoining Palang Pracharath. The rest of Pheu Thai would likely join the opposition with Move Forward.
"The ball is still in Pheu Thai's court. What they can do is kick it about among the eight coalition parties. They have no chance of getting the PM seat because they do not dare to tear up the MoU," said the analyst.
Yuthaporn sees Pheu Thai's position as difficult ahead of the next parliamentary vote to select a new prime minister. He said the party currently has four big headaches – explaining its position to other parties in the current coalition, dealing with the 188-MP alliance, seeking support from senators, and tackling party infighting among factions who want to stick to the current coalition or betray them to work with the rival alliance.
Olarn suggested that Move Forward could willingly retreat into opposition on condition that the next government pledges to seek constitutional amendments, particularly on issues viewed as undemocratic.
House dissolution an option
Yuthaporn believes the House could be dissolved and a fresh election held if the political deadlock continues until year-end. He pointed out that caretaker Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha still has the power to dissolve the House.
The analyst also noted that waiting another 10 months until the Senate completes its term would not guarantee the parliamentary selection of a prime minister acceptable to all sides. He cited the fact that senators would still take a caretaker role until their successors assume office.
Meanwhile, a new development may have provided respite for both Pheu Thai and Move Forward.
The next meeting and PM vote, scheduled for Thursday (July 27), has been cancelled by Parliament President Wan Muhamad Noor Matha after the Ombudsman's Office petitioned the Constitutional Court to review last week's decision in Parliament to block Pita's renomination. One of Pheu Thai's three PMcandidates was expected to be nominated for the parliamentary vote at the cancelled meeting.
