Outbreak spreads to 45 provinces, could grow to ‘thousands of cases per day’ - The Nation

Outbreak spreads to 45 provinces, could grow to 'thousands of cases per day'

National

Dec 29. 2020

Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin

By The Nation

Thailand recorded 155 new cases of Covid-19 on Tuesday – 134 domestic infections, 10 in state quarantine, and 11 migrant workers – taking the total since January to 6,440.

The death toll increased by one to 61.

Infection zoning map shows the spread of Covid-19 over the past 11 days – Dec 18-20, Dec 21-23, Dec 24-26, and Dec 27-29 – in red zones (more than 51 cases), orange zones (11-50 cases), yellow zones (1-10 cases).

The latest outbreak has now spread to 45 provinces, said Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesperson of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA).

The Disease Control Department warned that cases could rise to 18,000 per day in the next two weeks if the outbreak went unchecked.

The department's epidemiology working group calculated three possible scenarios.

Case prediction chart with red representing an uncontrolled situation where people do not follow rules, yellow representing moderate measures, and green strict measures with strong public cooperation.

First scenario (red line): If nothing is done, new cases will rise steadily until January 14 when infections reach 18,000 per day. The trend would start at 1,000-2,000 infections per day at New Year then grow steeply.

Second scenario (yellow line): If moderate measures are imposed, new cases will rise to reach 10,000 per day by mid-January.

Third scenario (green line): If strict measures are imposed and people maintain mask-wearing, hygiene and social distancing practices, cases will rise less than 1,000 per day.

"We are currently in an 'orange line' scenario," said Taweesin. "I admit that I am worried because if the orange line goes up at 45 degrees, there will be thousands and thousands of infections.

"During the New Year holidays, people can travel anywhere except Samut Sakhon, which is under lockdown, but the 45 provinces with cases should have strong measures to monitor the virus. This New Year will be unusual. The threat of two- or three-digit daily infection rate has forced us to adapt to a new situation. Provinces don't have to impose strict lockdowns, but all must adjust by tightening disease control measures," he added.