Tourism Council announce their four scenarios for return of foreign tourists in 2021 - 3 million tops, 1 million worst. ASEAN Now advises members who are sitting in front of their computer screens to finish their mouthful of coffee before proceeding. We'd hate to be responsible for unnecessary splutter and equipment damage. ASEAN NOW

File photo//REUTERS

 

Deputy chief of the Tourism Council of Thailand Wichit Prakopkosol said that he was absolutely thrilled with the Thai government's plans to reopen the country within 120 days. 

 

He was particularly gushing about the government not delaying the Phuket sandbox that kicked off Thursday. 

 

He fully anticipated that to proceed brilliantly without a hitch and then nine other provinces - Bangkok, Phangnga, Krabi, Chonburi, Surat Thani, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khirikhan, Buriram and Chiang Mai - to follow suit. 

 

He then told Manager that he had come up with four scenarios about how the reopening of Thailand to foreign tourism in 2021 would pan out.

 

ASEAN Now advises members who are sitting in front of their computer screens to finish their mouthful of coffee before proceeding. 

 

We'd hate to be responsible for unnecessary splutter and equipment damage. 

 

Scenario #1: The Chinese allow their nationals to travel in October and Bangkok is fully opened and the vaccine rollout is proceeding well = 3 million tourists spending 212 billion baht.

 

Scenario #2: The ten provinces are open but the Chinese government says NO to foreign travel = 2 million foreign tourists spending 152 billion baht.

 

Scenario #3: China says YES to its nationals travelling abroad but Bangkok is not able to open up = 1.4 million tourists spending 107 million baht

 

"This one is the most likely" revealed Wichit saying that he expects the Chinese to allow their people to travel in October.

 

ASEAN Now notes that earlier this year we published the result of a huge online survey that revealed the vast majority of Chinese would only travel to Thailand SIX MONTHS AFTER the country has the virus under control.

 

By no stretch of the imagination could that be October though Manager did not say where Wichit got his information from. 

 

Finally....

 

Scenario #4 (called the "choke rai" or bad luck one by Wichit): Bangkok can't accept foreign tourists and the Chinese say NO = Only 1 million foreign tourists spending a paltry 8.3 billion.

 

(Here we suspect that Manager might have meant 83 billion and put their decimal point in the wrong place - your guess is as good as ours). 

 

Wichit was making his assessments on the eve of the opening of the Sandbox. 

 

Now for some Sunday reality folks:

 

On the opening day PM Prayuth Chan-ocha welcomed 51 tourists from Singapore and in total there were a few hundred for the grand opening. 

 

Yes, the authorities have said this is just a trial run and more are expected to follow later and you have to start somewhere etc etc.

 

But meanwhile in Bangkok and elsewhere the country was in the grip of the very worst stage of the pandemic with deaths and new cases smashing records almost daily. 

 

Thirty four provinces reported infections stemming from Bangkok.

 

In the capital pubs were warned to stay shut and restaurants told not to allow in-house dining or face huge fines even jail.

 

In Pattaya drinking was banned from 8pm to 4 am.

 

Great swathes of tourist businesses in once thriving areas remain shuttered.