The Pheu Thai Party's victory in by-elections in Bangkok on Sunday will send shockwaves throughout Thai politics from the ruling coalition to the members of the opposition.
Suchart Thienthong victory in Bangkok's 9th Constituency 9 was by a landslide with nearly 10,000 more votes than his nearest rival from the Move Forward Party.
Former Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij's Kia party also surprised many with candidate Atawit Suwannapakdee taking third place, just a few hundred votes behind the more progressive Move Forward Party. Atawit was a former MP for the Chatuchak district under the Democrat party's banner in 2008 and 2011 elections.
The ruling Palang Pracharat party's candidate – Saralrasmi Jenjaka, came in fourth with just 7,906 votes. The ultra-royalist Thai Pakdee Party, running candidate Panthep Chatnarach, came in fifth with 5,987 votes
The unofficial results are as follows, although the certification of the win by the Election Commission will take about 60-days as per the law.
Fading Fortunes of PPRP
Palang Pracharat poor showing is especially astounding. That the party managed to get 7,906 votes when compared to the 34,907 votes they received in the 2019 elections is a clear indication that not all is well with the military-backed party. This is the same party that lost the earlier January 16 by-elections in Songkla and Chumphon provinces to its coalition partner, the Democrat party.
The PPRP which has made headlines over the last fortnight for infighting and schisms will now have to seriously introspect and look closely at its electability.
The loss of yet another by-election in what is supposed to be a conservative stronghold should send alarm bells ringing to its conservative and powerful backers – and draw into question whether it will perform in the next general elections.
Let us remind ourselves that this constituency is located in the heart of Bangkok with military barracks aplenty. Logic dictates that these areas would vote for the military-backed party and their former military leadership. If these preliminary results are to be believed, none of these things happened.
Others will point to the entry of Thai Pakdee splitting up the conservative vote. But even if one were to combine the votes of the PPRP and Thai Pakdee, they wouldn't be able to challenge the Pheu Thai Party.
Reflection Time for Move Forward
Move Forward, which came in third in the 2019 elections with 25,735 votes, managed to move into second place in the by-election. But its lower voting share will worry some inside the party.
The debate will rage between now and the next election whether or not the party will have to 'tone down' its progressive message to appeal to more moderate voters.
The youth vote, which is the backbone of the party, will be key to the party's electoral success. But with the voting rules changed to favor local constituencies and large parties in the last round of constitutional amendments, the party will be hard pressed to regain the success that they saw during the 2019 elections.
The party will also have to analyze why its vote share was so close to the Kia Party and their conservative message. It is too early to tell if the party needs to moderate its progressive message but it is a conversation that should be had sooner rather than later.
Governor Elections
One possible side effect from the ruling party's poor showing in Sunday's election could be a postponement of the Bangkok gubernatorial election.
With both main opposition parties doing significantly better than the ruling party, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha may choose to pause the polls until his party regained some sentiment and were in a better position to contest for the leadership of the kingdom's largest and most important city.
Remember that the PPRP is alone among the major parties that has not revealed its candidates for the gubernatorial elections, there may be more cloak and daggers play from the ruling party in this regard. Watch this space.
Caught Between a Rock & Hard place
When former PPRP Secretary General Thammanat Prompao up and left the ruling party with 20 other MPs, many predicted that Prayut's days as prime minister were numbered. (Thammanat said that as many as 10 more MPs were ready to jump ship at his bidding)
Many analysts said that an early house dissolution was only a matter of time, the PPRP and the ruling coalition did not have enough votes to effectively govern.
But with the results of Sunday's by-election now clear, polls maybe the last thing from Prayut's minds given how unelectable the PPRP have become. While not able to govern effectively with its loss of MP, Prayut may find staying in a limp government preferable to calling elections in which he has no chance of winning (despite having 250 senators hand-picked by his cronies).
Revenge is sweet
Thammanat on his social media late yesterday came out to he was glad to see people coming out to use their rights in the by-elections and that such a civic duty is what 'Democracy' is about. He ended his statement saying, 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend.'
It may indicate that the Pheu Thai party is Thammanat's friend.
Though there is a non-voting no-confidence debate set to take place in the first quarter of the year, General Prayut may be worried about the possibility of a motion-voting no-confidence debate that could happen as early as May.
Remember that Prayut scraped by the last no-confidence vote in August 2021.
With the statement 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend', Thammanat has openly declared that he and his backers are not likely to back the 'enemy' Prayut in any no-confidence debate.