The baht is expected to test a low of around 34.50 per US dollar over the next month amid heightened uncertainty following the US announcement of reciprocal tariffs of 37% on Thai imports.
The baht hit its weakest level in 2.5 months on Thursday, reaching 34.38 per dollar in trade, mainly attributed to the impact of tariffs.
During Thursday's trade, the baht tested 34.44 per dollar, the same level recorded when US President Donald Trump was sworn into office, said Kanjana Chockpisansin, head of banking and financial sector research at Kasikorn Research Center.
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With the US imposing a 37% reciprocal tariff on Thai imports — significantly higher than the expected range of 10-25% — the baht is likely to depreciate against the greenback, she said, weakening investor sentiment and contributing to a risk-off investment environment.
Ms Kanjana said the US tariff on Thailand would have a significant and widespread impact on the Thai economy, increasing uncertainties in the months ahead that will pressure the baht to depreciate against the dollar, despite some support from rising global gold prices.
"For the next month, we expect the baht to continue weakening, potentially testing its previous low of 34.85 per dollar," she said. "If the baht falls below this level, it could test a new support level at 35.50 per dollar."
According to Krungthai Global Markets, an arm of Krungthai Bank (KTB), the baht opened on Thursday at 34.38 per dollar, marking a sharp depreciation from the previous day's close of 34.16.
Following the US tariff announcement, the baht weakened, fluctuating between 34.07 and 34.45 per dollar.
The new tariff on Thai exports, although lower than the initial estimate of 72% by US authorities, was still higher than market forecasts, intensifying financial market pressure and driving a risk-off sentiment, said Poon Panichpibool, market strategy analyst at KTB.
Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, said negotiation is one avenue for Thailand to mitigate the impact of the reciprocal tariff, which should involve both internal and external discussions.
The government should collaborate with all relevant parties to manage the consequences effectively, he said.
In the initial stage, negotiations should focus on key sectors such as agriculture, food, energy and finance, said Mr Pipat.
Thailand must strategically balance opportunities and risks across industries affected by the new US tariff measures, he said.
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