Re: The Thai baht that looks too strong and the money no one sees. A strong baht may look impressive on paper. But if that strength is built on money the system cannot see, trace, or control, it is not a sign of health it is a warning. And in finance, warnings are usually ignored right up until the moment they are no longer theoretical.- Pattaya Mail

Es wird wie immer , sind Touristen weg also Mai bis August , ist der Kurs zum Euro 1 zu 39 THB 

Ola Jansved <olajnsvd@gmail.com> schrieb am Mi., 24. Dez. 2025, 16:43:

The Thai baht that looks too strong and the money no one sees

Victor Wong (Peerasan Wongsri)December 24, 2025

The Thai baht has strengthened to around 31.15 per US dollar, a move that appears reassuring but masks deeper concerns as exports remain fragile, growth uneven, and household debt high.

PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht has strengthened to around 31.15 per US dollar. On the surface, this may appear reassuring. In reality, it should raise uncomfortable questions. This appreciation has occurred against the direction of the Dollar Index, and at a time when Thailand's domestic economy is not expanding fast enough to justify such currency strength. Exports remain fragile, investment growth is uneven, and household debt is stubbornly high.

Currencies do not move like this by accident. For a national currency to strengthen so sharply in less than a year, the inflows involved cannot be modest. They must be large, sustained, and systemic  on a scale comparable to national budgetary flows. In other words, money big enough to move the market itself. According to findings linked to the Bank of Thailand, one notable factor has been unusually high volumes of online gold trading, followed by the conversion of US dollars into baht through digital platforms. As dollars are sold and baht is aggressively bought, the currency naturally appreciates. Yet this has little to do with productivity, exports, or the real economy.

Alongside this sits a far more sensitive issue, grey money. It is widely estimated that funds linked to online scams and digital fraud circulating within Thailand may reach 200 billion baht. Of this, authorities have reportedly managed to freeze only a fraction measured in mere tens of billions. The gap between these numbers speaks volumes about the limits of enforcement in a digital financial ecosystem. And this does not include funds moving outside the traditional banking system altogether. Years ago, I warned that once online money systems became dominant, countries would begin to lose control over capital flows both inbound and outbound. That warning no longer sounds theoretical.

The real issue is not whether the baht is strong or weak. It is that large volumes of money are entering Thailand without passing through the central banking system. There are now multiple applications widely used by the public that offer better exchange rates, lower fees, and near instant transfers. Funds in the hundreds of thousands even millions can be moved from Europe to Thailand within an hour, often without meaningful visibility for monetary authorities. For individuals, this is convenience. For a nation, it is something else entirely. When capital flows bypass regulatory oversight, the state gradually loses its ability to manage monetary stability, enforce financial integrity, and understand what is truly driving its currency.

A strong baht may look impressive on paper. But if that strength is built on money the system cannot see, trace, or control, it is not a sign of health it is a warning. And in finance, warnings are usually ignored right up until the moment they are no longer theoretical.