The Thai economy could lose 100 billion baht ($3.19 billion) a month, mainly in the service sector, as a consequence of the latest outbreak of Covid-19, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said on Thursday.
The outbreak, which has seen over 18,000 cases in just 22 days, might reduce the number of workers by 149,000 a month, the UTTC said.
The new wave would probably be controlled within two or three months, like the previous outbreaks, but this would cut gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.2% to 1.8%, university president Thanavath Phonvichai told a briefing.
"If there will be economic stimulus measures, the economy may grow 1.2% to 1.6% this year," Thanavath said, adding the university's current forecast was for 2.8% growth.
Household debt levels might rise to 92% of GDP this year as the outbreak has cut income and jobs, he said.
The debt hit 89.3% of GDP, the highest since records began, at the end of 2020, when Southeast Asia's second-largest economy suffered its deepest slump in over two decades due to the pandemic.
According to the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), the Government has prepared medical equipment and medicine for COVID-19 treatment and for preventing the disease effectively. There is no policy that people who are infected with COVID-19 will be home-isolated and receive treatment alone at home. The Government will provide accommodations, including general hospitals, field hospitals, and "hospitels," in accordance
The government on Thursday reported seven more deaths related to Covid-19, raising the toll to 117, and 1,470 new cases, for a total of 48,113.
Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman for the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, said the 111th death was a Thai woman vendor, 24, with obesity, in Phatthalung province.
On April 7 she went to an entertainment place where there was an infected visitor. On April 16, she had a fever, sore throat and a cough. She tested positive the following day, with lung inflammation and shortness of breath.
On Monday her blood oxygen level dropped and lung inflammation became severe. She died at 2.30pm on Tuesday.
The 112th death was an elderly child-minder, a 68-year-old Thai woman with allergies, in Saraburi province.
On April 5, she was in contact with a since confirmed case. On April 12 she had a fever and a cough.
She was admitted to hospital on Monday when she tested positive, had breathing difficulty and was placed on a ventilator. She died on Tuesday.
The 113th death was a Thai man, 83, with hypertension and high cholesterol, in Bangkok.
On March 17, he had a high fever, runny nose, fatigue and a cough. On March 22, he went to a private clinic. On March 23, he sought a Covid-19 test at a mobile unit and it returned positive the next day.
He was admitted to a hospital on March 25. On March 31, he was fatigued and depended on a ventilator. His condition worsened and he died at 12.07pm on Tuesday.
The 114th death was a bed-ridden Thai woman, 80, with diabetes, in Nakhon Pathom.
On April 13-15 a relative from Bangkok paid her a visit. On April 16, she vomited blood and was sent to a hospital which diagnosed her with Covid-19. Her condition worsened and she died at 6.30am on April 17.
The 115th death was a Thai man, a driver aged 45 with hypertension and high cholesterol, in Bangkok who had contact with a since confirmed case.
On April 9, he had a fever, fatigue and a cough. On April 17 his fever rose to 40.2°C, with excessive phlegm, shivering and lost appetite. He went to a hospital and returned home with medicine.
On Monday he was admitted to hospital with breathing difficulty and oxygen saturation of 68-70%, and diagnosed with Covid-19. He had lung inflammation, depended on a ventilator and died on Tuesday.
The 116th death was a Thai male state enterprise worker, 59, with diabetes. He lived in Bangkok and was in contact with a since confirmed case.
He had a cough on April 14 and was admitted to hospital on Tuesday with breathing problems. He depended on a ventilator, was confirmed with Covid-19 and died the same day.
The 117th death was an 86-year-old Thai man with heart disease, in Bangkok.
He was in contact with a since confirmed case on April 5. On April 16, he tested positive for Covid-19, developed a cough and was fatigued.
On April 18 he was admitted to hospital. On Tuesday he had breathing difficulty, a high fever and low oxygen saturation. He died at 2.50am on Wednesday.
The death toll this month in the latest wave of Covid-19 was now 23, equivalent to 0.12% of cases, Dr Taweesilp said.
All the 1,470 new cases over the previous 24 hours were local infections, of which 1,370 were confirmed at hospitals and 100 via mass testing.
"We remain concerned about the Covid-19 situation in the country because the daily increase is exceeding 1,000 cases," Dr Taweesilp said.
Bangkok logged 446 new cases, up from 350 on Tuesday and 365 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, there were 118 new cases in Nonthaburi, 99 in Chiang Mai, 97 in Chon Buri and 42 in Songkhla.
Of the 48,113 total cases, 29,848 (62%) had recovered, including 477 discharged over the past 24 hours, and 18,148 were in hospitals.
The huge number of hospitalised cases was a heavy burden on medical and health personnel, Dr Taweesilp said.
Thai authorities have not given up on attracting foreign tourists for the upcoming high season. But the emphasis is currently on European and Middle East recruitment as China declines to agree to the resumption of mass foreign travel, whilst India faces a devastating rise in new infections. In 2019 these two countries alone provided more than a third of all tourists arriving by air.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is now facilitating a new website Entry Thailand which it claims is a one-stop shop for potential visitors. It outlines the various steps required including the certificate of entry, issued by the Thai embassy in the country of departure, flight bookings, the arrangement of quarantine, the purchase of Covid insurance and immigration bureaucracies.
In a separate move, the government has announced it will adopt the so-called vaccine passport, a certificate for use with Covid-19 vaccination as an official travel document for those already vaccinated here and travelling abroad. However, to date, less than one percent of Thais have been vaccinated against the virus and virtually no foreigners. It is expected that most foreigners based here will have to wait until June before private hospitals offer vaccination on a paid basis.
So far two vaccines have been approved for use in Thailand. The Chinese Sinovac version "uses dead material from the virus" and is claimed to avoid most side-effects, according to a Bangkok-based health worker speaking to Deutsche Welle. The alternative is the British-Swedish AstraZeneca which has been linked to rare but potentially fatal blood clots. Thailand is currently battling a third-wave of infections after handling quite well earlier flare-ups.
Many Thai provinces have banned public consumption of alcohol, forbidden group gatherings of people and restricted inter-regional travel. Although there is no curfew, many Thais and expats say this is only a technicality because all places of entertainment are closed. "You can't get a beer anywhere, except on a supermarket shelf, and restaurants all close at nine in the evening," complained one mournful Pattaya longstayer.
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Simon Hellier, spokesman for Global Costsaver, said the prospects for international tourism to Thailand remained poor in the near term. "The entry system is bureaucratic and expensive. The costs of applying for Thai embassy clearance, mandatory tests and Covid insurance, quarantine in Thailand and further testing before and after the return journey can add 2,000 pounds to the cost of a vacation. Add to this the fact that that nearly all entertainment in Thailand is closed and you have your answer."
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The government has agreed to extend excise tax reductions for jet fuel until the end of the year, a move to help mitigate the plight of airlines hard hit by Covid-19 outbreaks which have almost wiped out cross-border travel and tourism.
Lavaron Sangsnit, director-general of the Excise Department, said yesterday the department -- with the cabinet's consent -- has announced an extension of the reduction of such tax until Dec 31 once the extension period is scheduled to end later this month.
The cabinet approved lowering the excise tax on jet fuel to 20 satang per litre from 4.726 baht in February last year as part of urgent aid measures for domestic airline operators during the pandemic.
The reduction expired on Sept 30 last year, but it was later allowed to be extended until April 30 this year as the impact of the pandemic on the airline industry persisted.
According to Mr Lavaron, the extension of the excise tax reduction for jet fuel will not only alleviate the financial burden of airline business operators, helping enable them to continue their business but also resuscitate the overall tourism industry which is instrumental to driving economic recovery after the pandemic eases.
Mr Lavaron said the government is committed to providing Covid-19 vaccines to cover not less than 60% of the population in preparation to reopen the country for international tourists by October while it is expected that international tourist arrivals will commence from the third quarter.
The tourism sector contributes around 16-17% of GDP. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, the number of foreign tourists reached nearly 40 million, but once the spread of Covid-19 began during early 2020, the number of international tourist arrivals plummeted to 6.7 million for the whole of 2020, down 83% from the previous year.
The Excise Department earlier said the extension of the jet fuel tax cut is unlikely to affect its tax revenue collection as it contributes a mere 1 billion baht per year.
Omkring 2,4 milliarder passagerer forventes at rejse med fly i 2021, og det er et godt stykke under rekordåret i 2019 med globalt 4,5 milliarder passagerer. Europæisk luftfart bliver hårdest ramt i 2021.
I 2019 var der hver eneste dag i gennemsnit 12,5 millioner passagerer, der foretog en flyrejse svarende til 128.000 flyvninger om dagen og samlet 4,5 milliarder i hele året. Sådan så det ikke ud i 2020, og sådan kommer det heller ikke til at se ud i 2021.
IATA (International Air Transport Association), der repræsenterer omkring 290 flyselskaber og i omegnen af 82 procent af den samlede flytrafik i verden, forventer omkring 2,4 milliarder passagerer vil rejse med fly i 2021, og det noget flere end de 1,8 milliarder, der blev registreret hos flyselskaberne i 2020.
Dermed ventes passagertrafikken i 2021 at nå op på 43 procent af 2019-niveauet, hvor det især er i slutningen af 2021, at genopretningen for alvor tager fart.
"Denne krise er længere og dybere, end nogen kunne have forventet. Tabene reduceres fra 2020, men smerten ved krisen øges. Der er optimisme på hjemmemarkederne, hvor luftfartens kendetegnende modstandsdygtighed demonstreres af genopretning på markeder uden interne rejsebegrænsninger. Regeringspålagte rejserestriktioner fortsætter med at dæmpe den stærke underliggende efterspørgsel efter internationale rejser," siger nytiltrådte Willie Walsh, generaldirektør for IATA.
Tab i 2021 mindre end i 2020
Trods fremgang i forhold til 2020, så kan det ikke forhindre endnu et år med store tab i luftfarten. Nettotabet for hele luftfartsindustrien forventes i 2021 at beløbe sig til 47,7 milliarder dollars, hvilket svarer til 295 milliarder kroner. Det er dog noget bedre end i 2020, der sluttede med et samlet tab for flyselskaberne på 126,4 milliarder dollars (780 milliarder kroner).
IATA opfordrer derfor regeringer over hele verden til at implementere planer for genopretning af luftfarten samt at igangsætte eller forlænge eksisterende beskæftigelsesstøtteprogrammer for flyselskaberne.
"Effektiv genstart af luftfart vil give energi til rejse- og turistsektoren og den bredere økonomi. Da virussen bliver endemisk, er det vigtigt at lære at leve, arbejde og rejse sikkert. Det betyder, at regeringer skal fokusere på risikostyring for at beskytte levebrød såvel som liv," lyder det fra Willie Walsh.
Europa hårdest ramt
IATA-direktøren bemærker også, at de indenlandske markeder forbedres hurtigere end internationale rejsemarkeder, og fokuseres der på Europa så er regionen kendetegnet ved en situation, hvor hjemmemarkederne blot repræsenterer 11 procent af trafikindtægterne.
En særlig udfordring for Europa er den uensartede vaccinationsudrulning, og en langsommere vaccination i Europa vil også begrænse genopretningen af det europæiske marked samt markedet til og fra Nordamerika.
Tabet i den europæiske luftfart ventes derfor alene at beløbe sig til 22,2 milliarder dollars, eller lidt mere end 137 milliarder kroner. Det sker på baggrund af en forventning om en efterspørgselstilbagegang på 66,3 procent i forhold til 2019. Dermed er Europa og Mellemøsten de regioner, der er hårdest ramt i 2021, mens nordamerikanske flyselskaber blot forventer en tilbagegang i efterspørgslen på 41,5 procent.
Phuket started their strict screening measures this morning for travellers entering Phuket. Anyone who doesn't have a vaccination certificate or a covid-free certificate must do a Rapid Test. Thais are free and all foreigners are 500 baht. 📷 @pleunpit_Ch9 #Thailand
The Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta) is banking on the country to reopen by the fourth quarter as the tourism industry faces another setback following a new wave of infections, which has dampened the outlook for Phuket's sandbox model due to start in July.
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, newly-elected Atta president, said the reopening plan in July will be difficult to execute without effective vaccinations as Thailand is still recording over 1,000 infections every day.
Therefore, tour operators have pinned their hopes on the fourth quarter, during which there is more chance for tourists to return to pilot areas.
Mr Sisdivachr said it was important to reopen the country as soon as possible but that the plan cannot be accomplished without earning the confidence of tourists.
If the number of infections drops to double digits in the next two months, there might be a chance to continue with the Phuket sandbox as scheduled.
However, an effective vaccination plan, including procuring more doses, distribution, and communication is needed to boost confidence amongst locals. Moreover, this will also help ensure the industry does not stumble again in the future.
"A rapid vaccination programme is the only effective way to exit this crisis," said Mr Sisdivachr. "The government has to take decisive actions to allow the country to move forward."
In terms of a travel bubble arrangement, the government has to hold discussions with potential countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong and other neighbouring countries. It should not wait until the number of domestic cases reaches zero.
According to the Tourism and Sports Ministry, the number of international arrivals in the first two months of this year dropped 99.77% year-on-year, from 5.9 million in 2020 to only 13,435.
Between Jan and Feb, tourists from mainland China -- a major market for the Thai tourism industry -- numbered only 931, a stark contrast to the 1.2 million visitors who entered during the same period last year.
Meanwhile, travellers from Germany were the most common with 1,432 visitors, followed by the US (1,425) and the UK (1,180).
Mr Sisdivachr said the number of inbound tourists this year is difficult to predict given current circumstances remain volatile. He said there would be a clearer picture by July.
