The head of the Centre for Medical Genomics at Ramathibodi Hospital has addressed what many have questioned in the wild case of the Nigerian man who was diagnosed in Phuket with monkeypox and then fled to Cambodia. This first confirmed case of monkeypox in Thailand was likely contracted inside of the country, suggesting earlier, unidentified cases.
The Nigerian man arrived in Thailand on October 24 and spent some time in Chiang Mai before moving to Phuket where he stayed the majority of his stint in Thailand. According to Dr Wasun Chantratita, the man was in Thailand the entire time, so he must have picked up monkeypox domestically.
On July 16, he went to a private hospital, fearing that he'd contracted a sexually transmitted disease after blisters broke out on his genitals. But two days later the hospital contacted him and instructed him to come in to be treated for monkeypox. He left his condo and checked into several hotels and then was picked up by an accomplice and taken to the border at Sa Kaeo before swimming across the river into Cambodia and eventually making his way to Phnom Penh where Cambodian authorities arrested himand moved him to a hospital for treatment.
There's now some debate over the fate of the Nigerian man, as Cambodian police plan on prosecuting him for his illegal entry into the country, while the Ministry of Public Health is insisting he be sent back to Thailand to be prosecuted for violating the Communicable Diseases Act.
Genetic sequencing will now take place to analyse the specific strain of monkeypox that the Nigerian man has and determine its genetic makeup. Victims of monkeypox in Africa and in Europe suffer different symptoms due to the different genetic strains of the virus itself, so this analysis provides a look into the original source of the man's monkeypox and also determines whether he contracted it in Thailand or if he somehow had a dormant case before he arrived in the country.
While monkeypox does have several strains, there is nowhere near the amount of mutations that the Covid-19 virus has, meaning that genetic sequencing for monkeypox should be faster. Only then can it be confirmed that the man was infected in Thailand and that there are more undiagnosed or unreported cases of monkeypox within the kingdom.
Predicting the future of the baht is like betting on a roulette wheel.
With the British pound theoretically worth more than 44 baht and the US dollar sticking at around 37 baht, many expats, vacationers and Bloomberg wonder if they are on a roll. Whether now to move foreign cash to Thailand is the question of the day. The truism is that, in times of international economic distress, world-stage investors flock to the US dollar which represents the world's biggest economy. The fact that America has its own share of economic malaise and is run by an ageing president who has seen better days won't affect that stark reality.
The current slide in the Thai baht has many roots. Recession and rampant inflation worries are coupled with concerns about the revival of Covid which has dampened vaccine optimism. International tourism, leaving India aside, is sluggish partly as a result of airlines reducing the availability of flights from popular bases in mainland Europe, Britain and the United States. There are concerns about the slowdown of economic growth in China which is a very significant trading partner with Thailand. Finally, the Bank of Thailand has refused to hike interest rates significantly to curb inflationary pressures because of the presumed negative consequences elsewhere in the economy.
Meanwhile the British pound has its own dilemmas. UK businesses have just posted their slowest growth since February last year accompanied by warnings of higher inflation yet and threats of recession. Polls suggest that British foreign secretary Liz Truss will become the new prime minister in September. Her expensive tax cutting program is looked on with disdain by most international agencies, including the International Monetary Fund, as likely to push up inflation even faster. But the key to 10 Downing Street lies in the hands of 190,000 mostly-affluent Conservative party members who probably made up their minds months ago.
Currency predictions are always made on swampy ground. It was widely assumed that Brexit would doom the British currency which simply hasn't happened. Another myth is that military coups in Thailand bring about the decline of the baht which is certainly untrue: putsches are popular amongst financiers as they tend to quell arguments. At any rate in the short term. If the Russo-Ukraine war ended, for whatever reason, or if NATO troops got involved directly in the fighting, all bets would be off. If the latest Covid outbreaks worldwide led to another economic collapse … well, you know!
Trading Economics, using a global economic model, is sort-of indicating that the Thai baht will rise by less than one percent by September against major currencies and will remain largely static next year. Barclays and Bloomberg, who hold major stakes in the currency world, emphasize that what we don't know internationally outweighs what we do know. So it is guesswork after all. Meanwhile Thailand could well announce soon the lawful establishment of casino complexes. Guesswork comes into its own.
Thailand is far from reaching the stage of Sri Lanka, but country cannot be complacent, warn economists
Every now and then there are questions being raised whether Thailand may be heading closer to what Sri Lanka is facing these days or not, but these questions are being brushed aside by all sides as Thailand continues to have a healthy reserves and economy seems to be on an uptick.
Sri Lanka, which has been undergoing an economic meltdown due to gross mismanagement of the country, has become a poster child of how not to govern a country in the current volatile market conditions.
Sri Lanka, a country of 22 million people has seen its foreign reserves deplete to the level of barley $50 million in May this year from nearly US$ 10 billion in 2018. The country's politician (the Rajapaksa brother) were the president, and the Prime Minister. The duo came to power on the campaign of offering handouts and lowering taxes, leaving the country on the brink of collapse and the duo being forced out of their office.
"Thailand is not going to be like Sri Lanka for sure," 2014 coup leader and incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha said in the parliament during the no-confidence debate last week. He made the statement after many opposition parties who grilled the government of Prayut over its mismanagement of the economy and the habit of handouts to the people to keep his popularity.
Yesterday Gen. Prayut proudly said that he has spent nearly 1 trillion Baht in various subsidies over the past 2-years since Covid-19 outbreak.
With the household debt reaching levels that could make it unstainable in the long term. Thailand household debt currently is the 11th highest in the world with the data as of end of Q1 suggesting that Thailand's household debt stood at a staggering 89.2% to the gross domestic product (GDP).
The heavy household debt of 14.65 trillion Baht, coupled with the outflow of funds as Thailand continues to keep its policy rates low to continue to help the economy recover, has prompted a gradual outflow of funds.
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has hinted that it was looking to raise rates as it cannot continue to keep the rates at the current 0.50% level for too long. The BoT's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet on August 10 to decide on a possible 50 basis points (0.50%) raise that could trigger the start of many more rate rises in the near future.
Thailand needs to raise rates to stem the runaway inflation that is running at 14-year high at 7.66% as of June. The lower fuel cost in the month of July may help ease some of the inflationary pressure but the difference may not be that big.
Table below shows economists view of the rate hikes around the world.
Thailand's nearly US$ 200 billion in foreign exchange reserves gives the country a good cushion to be able to withstand may of the problems that Sri Lanka is facing but one cannot take the situation lightly.
Although Thailand is still considered quite far from Sri Lanka's situation, the fact remains that Thailand's economic fundamentals are still relatively stronger, including banking, foreign exchange, and international reserves, and all this helps the country to be able to be in a stronger financial position than Sri Lanka.
Recently, Sommai Phasee, former Minister of Finance in the government of Gen. Prayut, raised his concern over the issue of the government's ability to cope with the worsening situation.
He stated that he was not trying to imply that Thailand would end up being like Sri Lanka, but the risk remains.
"When you get to know what I have expressed here, please understand precisely that I am not saying that Thailand will have problems like Sri Lanka, but please be aware that the behavior of Thai politicians running the country at the moment is something that will cause damage like Sri Lanka in near the future," he said.
He added that there are still many risks that Thailand was neglecting while only pretending to care.
The government of Prayut that has reportedly borrowed heavily in the 8-years since the 2014 coup, has debt obligations to pay that would last generations to come.
During the parliamentary debate, opposition MPs accused Prayut administration of piling up debts in 8-years that was more than the 80+ years of democratic rule that Thailand has been under since the 1932 revolution that took Thailand into constitutional monarchy.
All this has prompted many to start questioning the viability of the handouts and the sustainability of the country's financial standing.
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has also given his 2 cents on the issue during a recent talk show.
Thaksin, who lives in self exile in Dubai (UAE), warned that the situation taking place in Sri Lanka could possibly happen in Thailand because 'we are also such a borrower.'
Thaksin said that Thailand, in the same way as Sri Lanka, has borrowed money to cover the budget because the budget deficit is US$ 20 billion for the 3rd year running. The government he said has been borrowing for various projects while the productivity is not enough, for that, they are unable to generate taxable income, and when that is the case, the government is not capable of paying off the debt.
"It's like a company that is constantly losing money, and borrowing until the credit is worn out, and eventually goes bankrupt." Thaksin said.
Meanwhile other economists have a different take, Dr. Somjai Phagaphavivat, an independent political and economic analyst, came out to say that the economic situation in Thailand is far from the situation in Sri Lanka due to the high reserves in the country.
"We have over 2 trillion Baht in reserves. It's about 5 times more than short-term debt, so it's a big difference," he said.
Somjai also said the situation in Sri Lanka was worse than in Thailand as foreign exchange reserves were burned on oil purchases and coronavirus support schemes.
Asst. Prof. Dr. Anusorn Thammajai, a former member of the Public Debt Policy and Supervision Committee Ministry of Finance, has also come out to say that the Thai economy is still at low risk even though Thailand has had a current account deficit for 2 consecutive years.
As Thailand starts to open up, foreign tourism income will reduce the current account deficit and should turn into a positive by the end of the year, he claimed.
Laos on the Brink
Sri Lanka may be a little bit of a far for Thailand and investments into Sri Lanka by Thai companies may be limited but Laos, a country of just 7 million people, is on the brink of crisis as it struggles to pay billions of dollars to its creditors.
The World Bank estimates that Laos needs nearly $1.3 billion in debt payment obligations up until 2025. Surprisingly Laos' foreign exchange reserves are about the same at $1.3 billion, which has prompted many credit rating agencies to come out to warn of a possible debt default for the $20 billion economy of Laos.
The country's problems, many economists warn could trigger more problems for Thailand than the problems Thailand faces from collapse of Sri Lanka.
Although Thailand is yet to be anywhere near where Sri Lanka's problems are, Thailand cannot stay complacent or ignore the problems that its neighbours may be facing.
Thai Rath reported on the latest comments of Thr health minister and DPM Anutin Charvirakul and senior doctors as the great marijuana debate in Thailand was racheted up.
Anutin was speaking at the Health Ministry in Nonthaburi where he sung the praises of marijuana for "wellness tourism" something that was described as a 2.3 trillion baht worldwide business post pandemic.
Anutin - as leader of the Bhumjaithai political party - has been a key advocate of the decriminalization of marijuana and hemp that came in on June 9th.
But groups ranging from Muslims in the south to a group of 851 doctors and medical personnel at Ramathibodi Hospital in Bangkok as well as the Forensic Physicians' Association have called for a suspension of the liberalization.
They claim that youth are at risk despite bans on the drug being used by under 20s in legislation that already exists.
Anutin was quoted in Thailand's English print media that the country has come too far to turn back now saying that marijuana will not be illegal again.
He said that the committee scrutinising the change in the law and coming up with new guidelines will report at the end of next month and PM Prayuth Chan-ocha has promised to push through government, and subsequently Royal sssent, before the end of this parliament.
Anutin said yesterday that marijuana products provide a great opportunity for people to make money in the health tourism arena and provide a "better quality of life" for sick people.
Dr Thongchai Keeratihatthayakorn, deputy at the MoPH, spoke of their use in health and beauty spas though stressed that must be legal.
He said there are 11,543 wellness tourism facilities in Thailand that would use hemp and marijuana products.
These comprised 1,051 spas, 10,248 health massage shops and 241 beauty massage establishments.
Hemp oil from seeds would be used in the spas and compresses containing ganja would be allowed too.
The drugs would also play a part in "spa cuisine" though this was not adequately explained in the Thai Rath story.
The overriding message coming from Anutin and his doctors was that marijuana is here to stay in Thailand despite the furor over recreational use and worries about access by under age teens, notes ASEAN NOW.
There is too much money involved to turn back now.
But many will be eagerly anticipating the findings of the House committee due to report at the end of August.
Their recommendations could shape the liberalization and industry for years to come
People who have recovered from Covid-19 may develop up to 62 underlying conditions that may last for many weeks or even months.
In his Facebook post on Tuesday, Thira Woratanarat, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Medicine, cited a study published on Monday in the Nature Medicine journal. The study, conducted over 12 weeks on 486,149 non-hospitalised Covid-19 patients, lists conditions developed a post-Covid infection or long Covid.
The study was adjusted based on age, sex, ethnic group, socioeconomic status, smoking, BMI and chronic conditions, he said.
Apart from an impact on the respiratory system, heart, circulation, memory and concentration, he said long-Covid sufferers have also complained of hair loss at four times higher than those who have not been infected. He added that long Covid also puts the reproductive system at risk.
"Covid-19 patients face a 1.26 times higher risk of developing erectile dysfunction than those not infected," he said, adding that men can also develop ejaculation difficulties and reduced libido.
He said long Covid can affect people's quality of life, relationships and can increase long-term expenses. Hence, people should continue protecting themselves, especially those at risk of developing severe symptoms, he added.
The World Health Organisation is warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is far from finished, but the rest of the world seems ready to move on.
Is this is the Modern World...?
The WHO received data around the world showing a 30% jump in Covid-19 infections in the past 2 weeks, but the public has grown tired of safety measures and is now impatient.
The WHO blames the rise in infections to what it calls pandemic fatigue where people have lost vigilance and are bored of dealing with it. According to the WHO, testing and sequencing have decreased significantly, and vaccination and treatment have become more haphazard.
The WHO still considers Covid to be of highest alert priority and warned that with the reduction in testing and prevention around the world, newer, more potent variants could emerge more easily, making the future of Covid-19 uncertain and unpredictable.
China is the only major country in the world still pursuing a zero-tolerance with quarantines and harsh travel restrictions. One single infection was found in Wugang city this week, causing the entire city's population to be ordered to stay in their homes.
But in much of the rest of the world, lockdowns are a thing of the past, and the economy and its citizens seem thankful for that. – The Thaiger
Police have proposed that Thanakorn be disrobed and excommunicated from the monkshood for violating anti-drinking laws. Viral Press
A Thai monk busted for drunken driving devised an incredible excuse for being inebriated at the wheel: He claimed that whiskey wards off COVID-19.
"He was drunk but told officers the whiskey prevented him from catching COVID-19," Police Lt. Col. Peerapong Raksi told Viral Press of the incident, which occurred Wednesday in Loei province, northern Thailand.
The alcoholic escapade began after Buddhist monk Phra Thanakorn, 63, was observed stumbling around a market asking locals for money. Afterward, he got into his pickup truck.
Monks are reportedly forbidden from touching liquor, according to local laws.
Alarmed by the holy man's alleged intoxicated state, locals reported the alleged boozy Buddhist's behavior to the police.
A Thai monk busted by police for drunken driving claimed that he drank whiskey to ward off COVID-19. Viral Press
"The residents told us that a monk was causing mayhem in the market, so we sent some officers to check," said Peerapong. Accompanying footage shows authorities surrounding the visibly intoxicated religious man, who's in his vehicle, before ushering the barefoot boozer out of the car and taking him into custody.
There, the drunken master reportedly admitted to being overtaken by the "holy spirit."
" 'I took a slice of lime with the whiskey, but I had to drive because our driver had an accident,' " explained the drunken monk, who reportedly struggled to speak or walk, Thailand Postsen reported.
A subsequent breathalyzer test confirmed that Thanakorn was under the influence of alcohol.
When asked about his spirits-soaked antics, the plastered priest claimed that the liquor "helped him to stay immune to the coronavirus.
While the drunk monk was subsequently discharged, Peerapong contacted the abbot at the Mabinthabat Temple — where Thanakorn worked — to provide details of the fiasco, Viral Press reported.
They have since proposed that Thanakorn be disrobed and excommunicated from the monkshood for violating anti-drinking laws.
It remains unclear whether the liquor-loving llama was also penalized for drunk driving, which can result in fines of up to 200,000 baht (approximately $5,500) and prison sentences of up to 10 years—- although leniency is often granted by the police and courts, per the Chiangrai Times.
This isn't the first time a drunken driver has devised a half-baked excuse for their behavior. In January 2020, a Nebraska woman busted for driving while heavily intoxicated told cops not to worry because she "is a professional drinker."
Meanwhile, in an incident in 2018, a Florida man told cops he wasn't drinking while driving — because he waited until his car was halted at stop signs before taking swigs of whiskey.
"He [Phra Thanakorn, 63] was drunk but told officers the whiskey prevented him from catching COVID-19," said Loei Police Lt. Col. Peerapong Raksi. Viral Press
International passengers make their way through a terminal at Suvarnabhumi airport. Somchai Poomlard
The shortage of airline seats remains a major obstacle for the recovery of Thai tourism as most European flag carriers haven't resumed flights and frequencies to the pre-Covid level.
Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Yuthasak Supasorn said the agency met the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand last week and was informed that Thailand might secure just 30.9% international seat capacity of the pre-pandemic level in the upcoming high season.
At present, international airlines, mostly from major long-haul destinations, have not resumed flights as usual, leaving a limited choice for travellers who want convenient direct flights.
ADVERTISEMENT
The TAT has prepared a marketing plan to support airlines to bring passengers to Thailand, particularly from Russia and other countries in Europe, but it depends on the additional budget it requested.
British Airways' 2022 winter schedule was announced without the London-Bangkok route and the airline said it would not resume a direct service for this route until 2023.
Prior to the pandemic, the airline served a daily flight from London to Bangkok. It currently operates only London-Singapore in Southeast Asia, with a daily flight, a decrease from twice daily before Covid struck.
In 2019, Thailand had a seat capacity of 56.2 million, before plunging to 14.8 million in 2020 and 4.9 million in 2021.
Tassapon Bijleveld, executive chairman of Thai AirAsia and acting chief executive of Thai AirAsia X, said most airlines are facing extremely high operational costs and insufficient manpower and aircraft.
"The aviation business cannot pick up overnight, particularly for those who slashed their workforce during Covid-19," said Mr Tassapon.
He said Thai AirAsia maintained all staff in the past two years to avoid such circumstances during the recovery period as commercial pilots have to extend their licences every six months by training with flight simulators.
However, airlines that have already downsized have to deal with higher wages as they must compete for trained staff, therefore, they have to plan flights more carefully by selecting routes with the most potential amid surging costs to avoid losses, he said.
He said after parking aircraft for over two years, all engines need major maintenance work before taking to the skies, resulting in long queues and full bookings at every maintenance, repair and overhaul facility.
Mr Tassapon said the TAT's initiative to help airlines increase seat capacity is a good strategy to boost the tourism industry.
In the past, governments from many countries adopted similar mechanisms, such as providing incentives for airlines that can carry international passengers at certain levels.
"Providing incentives for airlines could be an effective way to help increase flight capacity to Thailand," he said.
A nurse wearing protective gear stands at the entrance of an isolation ward for monkeypox patients at a government hospital in Hyderabad, India, on Monday. Thailand has decided not to raise the alert level for the disease. (AFP photo)
The government decided on Monday not to declare monkeypox another serious communicable disease as health authorities remain confident they can contain the virus.
Chakrarat Pittayawonganon, director of the epidemiology division at the Department of Disease Control, said increasing surveillance measures on the disease nationwide would be sufficient.
The nature of monkeypox does not yet fit the definition of the Communicable Disease Act, the official added.
"Serious communicable diseases must have severe symptoms and be spread easily and quickly," Dr Chakrarat said after the meeting of the academic committee to seek opinions on its status.
Dr Chakrarat said the experts in the meeting were confident in the health system and personnel, and believed could manage monkeypox.
Thailand announced the first monkeypox patient on Thursday. The case was a Nigerian, 27, in Phuket. The patient, 27, is under treatment at the Khmer-Soviet Friendship Hospital in Phnom Penh after he illegally crossed the border from Thailand to Cambodia on Friday and was arrested in the Cambodian capital the next day.
O Vandin, the Secretary of State and spokeswoman for the Cambodian Health Ministry, said the patient was in good health and no infections were detected in five people who had been close to him during his escape, the Khmer Times reported on Monday.
The World Health Organization on Saturday declared monkeypox as "A Public Health Emergency of International Concern" and urged member countries to find effective coping methods that do not stigmatise target groups.
All 19 people who had close contact with Thailand's first ever recorded monkeypox case have all tested negative for the monkeypox virus. All 19 people will isolate for a total of 21 days and will then be tested again to confirm they have not contracted the virus.
The 27 year old Nigerian national travelled to Thailand eight months ago and presented with monkeypox symptoms at a private hospital in Phuket on July 16. He was told to isolate at home while awaiting the test result, which came back positive for monkeypox virus on July 18. The man refused to return to the hospital for treatment and was later found to have escaped to Cambodia, where he was found in Phnom Penh.
Yesterday, Thailand raised the country's monkeypox alert to the national level following the World Health Organisation's declaration that monkeypox had become a global emergency.
After a Nigerian man fled Thailand upon being diagnosed with monkeypox and was subsequently captured in Cambodia, authorities have been tracking down anyone in contact with him in order to test them for the disease. Health officials have identified 19 high-risk people who came in close contact with the man and have now tested all of them for monkeypox.
Results are still pending, according to the Phuket Provincial Health chief, but specimens have been sent to the lab for testing. They expect all 19 pending specimens to have results within 3 days, but they have so far received two tests back with a negative diagnosis.
All 19 people have been placed in isolation under the care and monitoring of health officials. They will be checked up on each week for 3 weeks after which they will be retested.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian man who fled Thailand, believed to have swam across the border into Cambodia, will remain in the hospital in Cambodia for treatment and may face punishment for illegally entering the country, according to the assistant commissioner of the Cambodian police, who noted that this is standard international practice.
While Minister of Public Health Anutin Charnvirakul has urged people not to panic, saying that he doesn't think tighter restrictions are necessary, Thailand has now upgraded monkeypox to a national alert level, following the World Health Organisation's decision to elevate the spreading disease to its highest level of Global Health Emergency.
The minister said that travellers from high-risk countries do not need to be blocked, but that screening and monitoring regulations similar to what was used for Covid-19 should be put in place. Anutin said that Thailand is fully prepared for an outbreak, with the Department of Disease Control upgrading emergency facilities and with medical locations at the ready.
Public health officials also reassure the people of Thailand that monkeypox is not the same as Covid, being far less transmittable, and suggested that worried people need only to adhere to the safety measures already in place.
While health officials wait for the final test results for the remaining 17 high-risk people, the provincial health chief of Sa Kaeo, the border province where the Nigerian man crossed into Cambodia, confirmed that they had not identified any high-risk people that may have interacted with the man as he fled the country through their province.
