Tourist numbers expected to reach 30-40 million by 2023, but recession and labour shortages could take a toll - Thai Enquirer Main

Tourist numbers expected to reach 30-40 million by 2023, but recession and labour shortages could take a toll

Thai EnquirerOctober 11, 2022

Thailand's tourism sector is expected to revive back to pre-covid levels by next year after the country reopened its borders on July 1stthis year prompting the Tourism Council of Thailand to come out with hopes that the country's tourism numbers could return to the near 40 million seen pre-Covid-19 era.

The Tourism Council of Thailand revealed that the confidence level has returned to the industry that was battered by the Covid-19 induced lockdowns across the world.

The council said that a survey undertaken showed that the confidence level during Q3 2022 stood at 65 and was expected to rise to 70 during Q4, 2022 as Q4 is usually the high season for the tourism sector.

Tourism Council of Thailand says that it expects tourists numbers in 2022 to be around 12 million, about 2 million more than the expectations by the government of 2014 coup leader Prayut Chan-o-Cha.

Thailand had before the pandemic seen 39.9 million tourists arriving in 2019, an all time high that had pushed the tourism sector to be among the key drivers of the economic growth. Tourism, which accounts for about 15% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), had ground to a halt during the pandemic as tourism numbers shrank to just about 400,000 in 2021 as airlines grounded their fleet and countries put up various restrictions on travel.

Till date, China, the single largest tourist segment for Thailand with more than 10 million visitors in 2019, has continued to impose restrictions on outbound tourists, thus leaving countries such as Thailand looking for new markets to tap into.

To compensate for the loss of the Chinese tourism market, Thailand has managed to get a lot of the Indian tourist market, where the pandemic has prompted the tourists from India to be among the top visitors to Thailand.

Indian tourists are now 2^nd highest after Malaysia with more than 600,000 visitors recorded since the reopening of Thailand's borders in July 2022.

Fear Factors

Despite the positive outlook for the industry and the revival of the sector, the world tourism sector could be in for a tailspin as rising interest rates and a possible severe recession could derail the optimistic views of the tourism council.

Higher inflation amid rising fuel costs has prompted central banks around the world to raise interest rates and the rising interest rates could reach as high as 4.50% in the United States from the 3-3.25% currently which could lead to a severe recession.

A recessionary phase would lead to shattering of the dreams of receiving 30-40 million tourist numbers in 2023 that the Tourism Council of Thailand anticipates.

Tourism Council of Thailand says that its survey showed that the tourism industry's service and hotel business could see the income return. Revenues of the hotel operators returned to as much as 40% of pre-Covid level, while 87% of the businesses were back in operation, and 78% of these had revenues of 30-50% of the pre-pandemic levels. About 27% of these businesses also said in the survey that they lack labour for running their businesses.